kurtstack Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Just looking at the upper level changes through 48 (typical useful range of nam), there were some improvements. After that the drugs kick in and I wouldn't put much weight in the 48-84 hour stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 The multiple wave crap is tricky. It's possible none of the runs we've seen are that close to the end result. It would be pretty fun to get a nice pass from a nasty ull. Hail snow mix with cg would be memorable to say the least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 It would be pretty fun to get a nice pass from a nasty ull. Hail snow mix with cg would be memorable to say the least It is going neg tilt toward the end. Beast mode. I'd hug the Euro over the NAM probably.. though it keeps shifting too so who the heck knows what's up. All I know is the GGEM is wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Rain to ice/sleet storm with the NAM, in the early morning hours of St. Paddy's Day, in the middle of March? Somehow, I don't think so. Something looks amiss to me here. The mid-levels are warm, and yet somehow the surface actually cools in the pre-dawn hours Monday. Mid-levels seem to cool gradually a little bit as well right near the end but not much. Not to mention, the NAM has the storm seem to push the high out of the way for awhile, then sort of lets it dig back in with CAD. Very strange evolution... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 massive ice storm. where is yoda? Actually no... massive rain till about 5 am MON... then freezing rain? Lulz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 If anyone tried to extrapolate from the NAM at 76 hours, if it showed a massive snowstorm, they'd be burned at the stake by anti-Namists That only happened in the 14th century, when you'd first be thrown into an ice pond. If you didn't sink, you'd be burned at the stake with 850 temperatures well above zero. If you did sink, there'd be much rejoicing for a major snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 What is your recollection of 12/10 and 2/3 in the BWI area? BWI got 1.3" on 12/10 2/3 was not a bl issue....the slp tracked further north than what was shown several days in advance that can always happen but was not a bl problem that Wxman was describing, at least not the way I interpreted his post iow, last year, the models were fine with the mid levels and were too cold for the surface, thus the early March, 2013 turned out to be a bust what I was saying was that we haven't had a system this year that I can recall where the models had everything but the bl correct and had the bl too cold leading to a bust obviously, if the slp tracks further north, then warmth moves north in all levels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Actually no... massive rain till about 5 am MON... then freezing rain? Lulz Yeah, what I'd call a "FFC"...fat f-in chance...of that happening at this time of year! Probably would be cold rain if anything, if it's not snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 What about this... tell me site is not careless with the article http://www.theweatherspace.com/2014/03/13/significant-mid-atlantic-snowstorm-to-hit-starting-sunday-with-washington-d-c-in-the-middle/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 What about this... tell me site is not careless with the article http://www.theweatherspace.com/2014/03/13/significant-mid-atlantic-snowstorm-to-hit-starting-sunday-with-washington-d-c-in-the-middle/ no.. bad for your health Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 It is going neg tilt toward the end. Beast mode. I'd hug the Euro over the NAM probably.. though it keeps shifting too so who the heck knows what's up. All I know is the GGEM is wrong. Euro ensembles hinted at the ull hitting us. More than just a little. You and I both love a solid ull hit. So unpredictable until very short leads. I'd trade part 1 if I knew part 2 was going to take a perfect track. Nothing can deliver a surprise like a being on the fun side of a bowling ball. I'll rooting for an extrapolated nam type pass all day long Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Euro ensembles hinted at the ull hitting us. More than just a little. You and I both love a solid ull hit. So unpredictable until very short leads. I'd trade part 1 if I knew part 2 was going to take a perfect track. Nothing can deliver a surprise like a being on the fun side of a bowling ball. I'll rooting for an extrapolated nam type pass all day long Was "part 2" with the ULL cold enough on those Euro ensemble members that showed it hitting us? I know those can be explosive. ETA: I guess an extrapolated NAM might be something like big time ice/sleet into the very early morning, then snow, but hard to tell how much precip is left once the mid-levels cool off enough for snow. But that's a serious WAG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Euro ensembles hinted at the ull hitting us. More than just a little. You and I both love a solid ull hit. So unpredictable until very short leads. I'd trade part 1 if I knew part 2 was going to take a perfect track. Nothing can deliver a surprise like a being on the fun side of a bowling ball. I'll rooting for an extrapolated nam type pass all day long I wouldn't be confident the NAM wouldn't run it too far west.. but we're really only discussing it because there's a lull and we've got nothing better to do. Haven't looked at recent Euro ens to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Was "part 2" with the ULL cold enough on those Euro ensemble members that showed it hitting us? I know those can be explosive. Hard to say. The mean 850 panels were plenty fine but who knows what the ind members looked like on map plots. The snow output graph showed enough 1-2 hits to consider the option. The precip maps definitely had a secondary trailing energy look Like Ian said, who really knows. More questions than answers for sure. Should be a fun weekend of runs to decipher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Hard to say. The mean 850 panels were plenty fine but who knows what the ind members looked like on map plots. The snow output graph showed enough 1-2 hits to consider the option. The precip maps definitely had a secondary trailing energy look Like Ian said, who really knows. More questions than answers for sure. Should be a fun weekend of runs to decipher Thanks! It does sound interesting, and yes, looks like another weekend of biting nails (don't have much left!) and seeing what pans out in the model runs over the next couple of days. If it continues to look very interesting and possible, could be late nights ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 The snowiest model for DC right now is the GGEM, and DC gets hit hard because it is so close to the rain / snow line. I don't have a clown map for the 12z GGEM, but I'd bet that there's a pretty sharp drop off south of DC. Definitely something to watch over the next few days -- there is a reasonable chance that someone will go from 1 foot to 0 feet a day before the storm hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I wouldn't be confident the NAM wouldn't run it too far west.. but we're really only discussing it because there's a lull and we've got nothing better to do. Haven't looked at recent Euro ens to be honest. The front waa stuff seems to have some good consensus attm. What happens after is pretty muddy. Euro ens look like we have a shot at the ull. But far from probable. This is a fun track from a complicated standpoint. My wag is we get a modest but memorable snow event. Upside and downside is a coin flip at best. Now is clearly not the time to be all in for something "exciting" imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Euro ensembles hinted at the ull hitting us. More than just a little. You and I both love a solid ull hit. So unpredictable until very short leads. I'd trade part 1 if I knew part 2 was going to take a perfect track. Nothing can deliver a surprise like a being on the fun side of a bowling ball. I'll rooting for an extrapolated nam type pass all day long But the fun side of bowling balls also deliver for narrower swaths... I personally would prefer part 1 to lock in soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 But the fun side of bowling balls also deliver for narrower swaths... I personally would prefer part 1 to lock in soon. Yea, my fantasy trade requires a "perfect" track for my yard. And since your yard is close you score big too. Lol I think the front part is nearly locked in some ways. If it holds on the globals for another 36 hours or so and the short range stuff is grabbing the torch then I think we're good. I'm expecting snow to fall sun night at this point. How much and how cold is pretty tough to take a stab at tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Models are all over the place. Hopefully the GFS adds to confusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 14, 2014 Author Share Posted March 14, 2014 Anyone worried about this coming to far north. 2 days of runs left and if the NAM is to believed that is a major jump north already. York is in the Mid Atlantic now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 GFS already much more phased @60hrs.. Let's see where this goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 00z GFS has 1001 L in extreme SW TN at 60... looks more phased than the earlier 12z and 18z runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Snowing at DCA and IAD at 21z SUN (5pm SUN) on 00z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 14, 2014 Author Share Posted March 14, 2014 If that high holds, GFS would be a pretty big deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 York is in the Mid Atlantic now?This thread is often more interesting and applies more to where I live than the central PA thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 it;s less phased, What model are you looking at? GFS is deeper with the lead vort @ 500mb, tilted, and deeper @ the surface. Could be good with that beast hp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 GFS is pretty darn cold throughout the column at 00z Monday. Temps are night and day to the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 0.35 QPF marker around IAD at 00z SUN... snow in DC/MD/N VA... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 GFS further south. Smokes NoVa again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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