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Saint Patrick's Day Snow Event


stormtracker

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I'm with you. 3-5" is perfectly acceptable, worth the track, and would be thrilled if it verifies. It's a fluke setup with perfect timing. Expecting a fluke monster is a but much.

Good point. The strong cutoff secondary piece is well overplayed on the DGEX. It would be an anomalous event to see the second piece bomb into a classic nor'easter. First piece with good front running thump is the best shot. Perfect timing yields 3-6 and mainly west of 95. Initially there may be some warmer air in the BL if earlier start time is realized.

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Good point. The strong cutoff secondary piece is well overplayed on the DGEX. It would be an anomalous event to see the second piece bomb into a classic nor'easter. First piece with good front running thump is the best shot. Perfect timing yields 3-6 and mainly west of 95. Initially there may be some warmer air in the BL if earlier start time is realized.

The cutoff coming up favorably is in the back of my mind. There are hints of it but cutoffs behave a little nutty on models as time goes on. We'll see how things look on Saturday. Maybe we score the fluke of the century. I wouldn't bet 10-1 odds on it right now.

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The cutoff coming up favorably is in the back of my mind. There are hints of it but cutoffs behave a little nutty on models as time goes on. We'll see how things look on Saturday. Maybe we score the fluke of the century. I wouldn't bet 10-1 odds on it right now.

recall 3/1/09 had the decent u/l come thru early in the morning that gave us a decent shot, 2"+/- after the slp's 4"+/-

but some of the models have the trailer as a decent event all on its own

....fun few days coming

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recall 3/1/09 had the decent u/l come thru early in the morning that gave us a decent shot, 2"+/- after the slp's 4"+/-

but some of the models have the trailer as a decent event all on its own

....fun few days coming

The euro ens mean precip panels show potential for a 1-2 punch. Looking at member output there are some in the mix where the initial comes in from hr 84-96 or so then a lull and back into precip from 108-126. I don't feel like figuring out how many show a 2 phase event but there are enough showing the possibility to keep it in the back of the mind.

I need 8" to hit 50" on the year. Would be pretty wild doing it in mid march. We'll see how it goes. ULL's are always fun any time of year. Nothing like a cold pool of spinning air 18k up. The dynamic nature of the precip is entertaining to say the least.

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Euro control is ok. 6-8" for most of us. Has accum snow south of RIC too so that's a good sign for temps (even with the flawed algorithm).

I know it's been a while since this was posted, but I'd thought I'd chime in. I haven't seen the deterministic EC snow amounts, but I will say, don't be fooled by the accumulations south of RIC if they are noted west of I95. Now, if they are noted east of the fall line, then we've got a great thermal signal. As we realized from the 3/6 and 3/25 events last year, in marginal BL to 850 mb temp cases, higher terrain areas west of 95 (fall line) down by RIC latitude can do just as well or better than those of us east of I95 between DC and Balt. At least IMBY here in northern AA county, I'm going to be very careful with the forecasts with this one. Folks were improperly over-emphasizing the 3/6/2013 analog prior to the much colder 3/25 event, or even during colder earlier season events this year. However, for this event, at least the way it looks now, temps would be a legitimate concern for DC-Balt and areas east.

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I know it's been a while since this was posted, but I'd thought I'd chime in. I haven't seen the deterministic EC snow amounts, but I will say, don't be fooled by the accumulations south of RIC if they are noted west of I95. Now, if they are noted east of the fall line, then we've got a great thermal signal. As we realized from the 3/6 and 3/25 events last year, in marginal BL to 850 mb temp cases, higher terrain areas west of 95 (fall line) down by RIC latitude can do just as well or better than those of us east of I95 between DC and Balt. At least IMBY here in northern AA county, I'm going to be very careful with the forecasts with this one. Folks were improperly over-emphasizing the 3/6/2013 analog prior to the much colder 3/25 event, or even during colder earlier season events this year. However, for this event, at least the way it looks now, temps would be a legitimate concern for DC-Balt and areas east.

climo says we should be concerned, but right now the models paint a different picture, at least for BWI

on the Euro, 6Z Monday surface is -.9C

and the 18Z GFS (top link) and NAM (bottom link) maps below for Monday 6Z also say there's nothing to worry about

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_084_10m_wnd_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=10m_wnd_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140313+18+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_084_10m_wnd_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer&param=10m_wnd_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140313+18+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

 

idk, climo is certainly important, but no one can deny this winter has been different wrt to boundary layer temps and the pattern just keeps repeating

so I guess I'm saying, seasonal pattern says surface temps on models as now progged can be believed imho

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WxMan, I agree that bl could be a big problem for some folks. Me included. My post about wiggle room was midlevels but I wasn't specific. Seeing the models push the 850 line down as far as va/nc is a good thing.

The period from onset through at least midnight(prob later) is going to have some issues. I could see the first inch or 2 fall with 0:1 ratios. Lol

Hopefully if the front running slug does in fact hit us pretty good that the heaviest falls after 2am. This is definitely a better setup than the early march storm last year irt to temps. We could have a pretty decent period of snow fall with temps several degrees below freezing. Fun storm to track

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Surface forecasts are really tricky until the day of. With the -10c in central PA I have to believe it's a decent airmass with plenty of CAD. SE of DC can always have problems though. Can't really start worrying until we get closer in.

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climo says we should be concerned, but right now the models paint a different picture, at least for BWI

on the Euro, 6Z Monday surface is -.9C

and the 18Z GFS (top link) and NAM (bottom link) maps below for Monday 6Z also say there's nothing to worry about

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_084_10m_wnd_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=10m_wnd_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140313+18+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_084_10m_wnd_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer&param=10m_wnd_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140313+18+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

 

idk, climo is certainly important, but no one can deny this winter has been different wrt to boundary layer temps and the pattern just keeps repeating

so I guess I'm saying, seasonal pattern says surface temps on models as now progged can be believed imho

But there were more than a couple cases this winter too where the models were too cold in the short term for the boundary layer and surface temps. Even 1/21 was a pretty big bust temp-wise for the city in the beginning phase of the storm, let alone 12/10 and 2/3. Even the warmer model outputs for 12/10 and 2/3 still showed more accumulating verbatim (or falling snow at all in the case of 2/3) than what verified. It's just that we scored so many times, those examples don't sting as much. 

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It certainly is a fun storm to track! Especially after this winter -- everything past March 1st continues to be added icing on the cake.

This will be even more fun to track than the 3/25 event last year. Some of us were desperate for a 3+ inch event that it sorta took away from the enjoyment late last season. Now, as I said, it's all bonus! :-)

WxMan, I agree that bl could be a big problem for some folks. Me included. My post about wiggle room was midlevels but I wasn't specific. Seeing the models push the 850 line down as far as va/nc is a good thing.

The period from onset through at least midnight(prob later) is going to have some issues. I could see the first inch or 2 fall with 0:1 ratios. Lol

Hopefully if the front running slug does in fact hit us pretty good that the heaviest falls after 2am. This is definitely a better setup than the early march storm last year irt to temps. We could have a pretty decent period of snow fall with temps several degrees below freezing. Fun storm to track

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But there were more than a couple cases this winter too where the models were too cold in the short term for the boundary layer and surface temps. Even 1/21 was a pretty big bust temp-wise for the city in the beginning phase of the storm, let alone 12/10 and 2/3. Even the warmer model outputs for 12/10 and 2/3 still showed more accumulating verbatim (or falling snow at all in the case of 2/3) than what verified. It's just that we scored so many times, those examples don't sting as much. 

 

Agreed.  There were multiple times this winter that the models (Euro, GFS, and NAM in particular) were all a little too cold in the BL. The 00z RGEM and 00z GGEM the night before the early March storm advertised the latest changeover of all the models (4-5 am) which turned out to be right. 

 

If the models are spitting out -1C 850 temp, I'd worry that would turn out to be 0 to +1 (and so forth throughout the column), thus delaying our changeover, yadda yadda.  I think we need to hedge our expectations with climo and the "cold-bias" the models have been showing this winter.  OTOH, this winter has been anomolous with the cold shots so the models could be right this time.  Still 60+ hours out so small changes will have a big impact on the type of precip we see.

 

Pretty cool that we're still tracking snowstorms in mid-March.

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This is a very legit air mass with a very favorable high position/wind direction at the surface and looks like the heaviest snow falls before daylight.  Very different from our march busts. I wouldn't be surprised if the models sniff out more cold air damning and trend colder across VA as we get closer to the event. 

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Agreed. There were multiple times this winter that the models (Euro, GFS, and NAM in particular) were all a little too cold in the BL. The 00z RGEM and 00z GGEM the night before the early March storm advertised the latest changeover of all the models (4-5 am) which turned out to be right.

If the models are spitting out -1C 850 temp, I'd worry that would turn out to be 0 to +1 (and so forth throughout the column), thus delaying our changeover, yadda yadda. I think we need to hedge our expectations with climo and the "cold-bias" the models have been showing this winter. OTOH, this winter has been anomolous with the cold shots so the models could be right this time. Still 60+ hours out so small changes will have a big impact on the type of precip we see.

Pretty cool that we're still tracking snowstorms in mid-March.

Good post and same to those who above discussed the same thing. Will be interesting re the GGEM for now, since its the GGEM showing the most snow. Will it be right this go around?

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21z SREFs def colder in the long range... hr 72 already has 850s below 0 at DCA... 0c 850 line is nearby to the SE rest of run but slowly slips SEward by 84 and 87

 

2m 0c line comes through around 4am or so Mon morning

 

24 hr QPF has 1" contour off to our SW, but somewhat nearby

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21z SREFs def colder in the long range... hr 72 already has 850s below 0 at DCA... 0c 850 line is nearby to the SE rest of run but slowly slips SEward by 84 and 87

2m 0c line comes through around 4am or so Mon morning

24 hr QPF has 1" contour off to our SW, but somewhat nearby

Man it looks wet by mon morning

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But there were more than a couple cases this winter too where the models were too cold in the short term for the boundary layer and surface temps. Even 1/21 was a pretty big bust temp-wise for the city in the beginning phase of the storm, let alone 12/10 and 2/3. Even the warmer model outputs for 12/10 and 2/3 still showed more accumulating verbatim (or falling snow at all in the case of 2/3) than what verified. It's just that we scored so many times, those examples don't sting as much. 

I was talking about BWI

we didn't have the temp busts this year that DCA had this year, and every year for that matter

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