Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Euro member output is solid. 23 members show 6"+. Only 3 show no snow. 11 show 12"+. Just about 6" on the means for kgai. DC not out yet. Pretty unanimous for a snow event of some sort. ETA: Considering it's prob not going to be 10:1 snow and there will be surface problems during the first part those #'s are obviously inflated. Decent support for a 3-6" event with some upside. That would be similar in amount to the event on March 3 (though not as cold and "dry" of a snow)...which would be more impressive occurring on March 17th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 models don't really "split the difference" -- take for example the full envelope of uncertainty which you can express as a probability density function based on the initial condition -- a particular model solution is a discrete point on that pdf -- a *single* model has no knowledge whatsoever of the shape of the actual pdf (which we can assume in this case ranges from a good deal of energy being left int he SW on one end of the distribution to a consolidated system on the other end, as you correctly pointed out). So this idea that models can "split the difference" which in your case would be taking an average of the bimodal pdf you describe isn't correct -- frankly if you take your explanation from a physical standpoint today's solution of a "weaker" system would have been the least likely scenario to show up, when in fact, most guidance have something in between what you described were the two "most likely" scenarios. And just from a fundamental standpoint, its false to just assume that the current model solutions are any less correct than the two "likely" scenarios you described. To build on that - since some weather solutions are self-reinforcing (heavy snow brings more cold air brings more accumulation - whereas moderate snow lets marginal temps linger meaning less accumulation) it's realyl hard to "split the difference" and end up with a useful solution. Here's an oversimplifaction of how "splitting the difference" can give you a solution that is actually very unlikely. I feel like DC-proper is often in this predicament, and we may be again on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 18z NAM FWIW is cutting it close at the 850 level from 75 and on DCA/IAD/BWI ~28-30 at 2am MON morning (aka 06z MON) odd......NCEP maps put us around -3C at 850 while soundings place us around 0C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 18Z NAM looks pretty juiced up toward the end of its run, 850-mb temps look good, and surface goes below freezing around 03Z Sunday night it appears. Ducking for cover for analyzing the later periods of the 18Z NAM, but someone had to do it!! It is quite cold with HP strong to the north. If we were able to expand it out it might have a sharp gradient to the precip with the HP trying to suppress the heavy stuff south. Plenty cold though on this 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 odd......NCEP maps put us around -3C at 850 while soundings place us around 0C to illustrate, below is the sounding off the READY site for BWI at 84 hrs and the bottom link is the NCEP 850 map at 84 hrs. 1014. 51. -1.5 -2.7 47.4 8.1 1000. 166. -2.9 -3.7 49.4 11.6 975. 366. -4.6 -5.0 52.6 15.3 950. 570. -6.2 -6.9 55.6 17.7 925. 778. -7.6 -8.6 56.3 18.5 900. 991. -7.6 -8.8 49.1 16.6 875. 1211. -3.9 -4.6 47.1 10.8 850. 1443. 0.3 0.0 95.9 2.4 825. 1682. -0.7 -1.0 174.6 3.9 800. 1927. -0.9 -1.0 194.9 7.3 775. 2181. -1.5 -1.6 197.7 10.3 750. 2442. -3.3 -3.6 199.2 8.8 725. 2709. -5.3 -5.8 211.4 7.5 700. 2983. -6.4 -7.0 215.5 11.8 650. 3562. -7.7 -8.3 192.4 24.1 600. 4181. -10.9 -11.8 208.1 24.2 550. 4845. -14.6 -16.0 232.6 22.5 500. 5561. -18.7 -20.6 239.2 23.1 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_084_850_temp_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=850_temp_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140313+18+UTC&imageSize=L&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 So far through 48, 18z GFS looks similar to 12z GFS on h5 level Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 So far through 48, 18z GFS looks similar to 12z GFS on h5 level It's SE of last run, it's 18Z so who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Snowing in DC hr 78 (8pm SUN) on 00z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 13, 2014 Author Share Posted March 13, 2014 GFS similar and actually a hair colder at 850 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Nice front running hit on the gfs. I think we have pretty strong consensus for a 3 day lead with this feature. I'm in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 13, 2014 Author Share Posted March 13, 2014 18z GFS better for DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 13, 2014 Author Share Posted March 13, 2014 Solid 3 to 5 per the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 18z DGEX is the lulz... massive snowstorm as the 2nd piece comes roaring by Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Nice stripe of .5-.7 through the cities and close burbs by 8am Monday. DC is in the crosshairs with .70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Stronger influence from HP wedge. Good BL temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Pretty nice run. 6"+ for most in the area. I think we will all take that, well the people who want snow will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 18z GFS better for DCA. The snow maps look really purty for DCA a good 2" better than 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 13, 2014 Author Share Posted March 13, 2014 Nice stripe of .5-.7 through the cities and close burbs by 8am Monday. DC is in the crosshairs with .70 Yeah...given the time of year, I like 3 to 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Solid 3 to 5 per the GFS Looks more like 5-7" but who cares this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Looks more like 5-7" but who cares this far out. He was taking into effect how its a bit more difficult to get accumulating snow around here in March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 18z DGEX is the lulz... massive snowstorm as the 2nd piece comes roaring by For this time of year it looks like a BECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 He was taking into effect how its a bit more difficult to get accumulating snow around here in March Yea i know but the timing could not be more perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 The second piece of energy is the bigger question at this time. Decent agreement on part I. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 The 2nd piece is the wilccard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 13, 2014 Author Share Posted March 13, 2014 Not worth it ok...see ya next winter I'm going to enjoy it. Looks more like 5-7" but who cares this far out. I'm going more on soundings and climatology, not those silly snow maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 18z DGEX is the lulz... massive snowstorm as the 2nd piece comes roaring by Whoa, what? DGEX has somewhere near 5-6" of "rain" equivalent? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 to illustrate, below is the sounding off the READY site for BWI at 84 hrs and the bottom link is the NCEP 850 map at 84 hrs. 1014. 51. -1.5 -2.7 47.4 8.1 1000. 166. -2.9 -3.7 49.4 11.6 975. 366. -4.6 -5.0 52.6 15.3 950. 570. -6.2 -6.9 55.6 17.7 925. 778. -7.6 -8.6 56.3 18.5 900. 991. -7.6 -8.8 49.1 16.6 875. 1211. -3.9 -4.6 47.1 10.8 850. 1443. 0.3 0.0 95.9 2.4 825. 1682. -0.7 -1.0 174.6 3.9 800. 1927. -0.9 -1.0 194.9 7.3 775. 2181. -1.5 -1.6 197.7 10.3 750. 2442. -3.3 -3.6 199.2 8.8 725. 2709. -5.3 -5.8 211.4 7.5 700. 2983. -6.4 -7.0 215.5 11.8 650. 3562. -7.7 -8.3 192.4 24.1 600. 4181. -10.9 -11.8 208.1 24.2 550. 4845. -14.6 -16.0 232.6 22.5 500. 5561. -18.7 -20.6 239.2 23.1 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_084_850_temp_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=850_temp_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140313+18+UTC&imageSize=L&ps=model I think the NCEP site uses a little more smoothing. On IWM you can see that east of the Potomac it warms some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Whoa, what? DGEX has somewhere near 5-6" of "rain" equivalent? http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/DGEXEAST_18z/dgexloop.html Hrs 90 to 126 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Anyone have the 18z RGEM @ 54 hrs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 ok...see ya next winter I'm going to enjoy it. I'm going more on soundings and climatology, not those silly snow maps. I'm with you. 3-5" is perfectly acceptable, worth the track, and would be thrilled if it verifies. It's a fluke setup with perfect timing. Expecting a fluke monster is a but much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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