EasternUSWX Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 But do you know if all of that will accumulate? Are you sure there will be 10:1 ratios with everything sticking right away and no sun angle issues? If the sun is up overnight then we have a problem as most snow occurs during the overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 same thing happened last storm. Different storm. Some similarities, but different. This air mass coming in is not as cold and its later in March. Precip normally does make it further north in these sharp cutoff situations. I would expect that here even more so than the last event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 I wouldn't take the QPF and directly tie it to a 10:1 SR... I would go with 7:1. Why? We all assumed high ratios on 3/3 (like 12:1) and when a water core sample was done, it was 8:1 (h/t MN_Transplant who did that I believe) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 WxBell posted euro individual member maps for last nights ens run. There are some big hits from the ull. I personally don't think we'll get much if anything from it. But some porn solutions in there for giggles. If you have access, check out #8,19, and 31. LOL http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/yeps_members.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 I wouldn't take the QPF and directly tie it to a 10:1 SR... I would go with 7:1. Why? We all assumed high ratios on 3/3 (like 12:1) and when a water core sample was done, it was 8:1 (h/t MN_Transplant who did that I believe) The ratios with 3/3 may not be the best comparison. Not saying 8-1 isn't realistic but we had a long period of rain with mid levels and bl temps crashing. This time we have a snow sounding from onset with the only problem being the bl. Pretty different airmass overall during the best window. Maybe MN or someone can chime in with sounding analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 I wouldn't take the QPF and directly tie it to a 10:1 SR... I would go with 7:1. Why? We all assumed high ratios on 3/3 (like 12:1) and when a water core sample was done, it was 8:1 (h/t MN_Transplant who did that I believe)If I am reading soundings correctly looks like highest vertical velocities are below dendritic growth zone.EDIT: Whoops, poor analysis. Best 500mb vertical velocities are on the m/d line and best 700 mb vertical velocities are south of DC so I would assume 600 MB vertical velocities are right over DC, right in the dendritic growth zone. This would explain the stripe of maximum snow there on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 WxBell posted euro individual member maps for last nights ens run. There are some big hits from the ull. I personally don't think we'll get much if anything from it. But some porn solutions in there for giggles. If you have access, check out #8,19, and 31. LOL http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/yeps_members.php I don't have acess......... what do they say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Can't resist. #31 for 0z Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 The ratios with 3/3 may not be the best comparison. Not saying 8-1 isn't realistic but we had a long period of rain with mid levels and bl temps crashing. This time we have a snow sounding from onset with the only problem being the bl. Pretty different airmass overall during the best window. Maybe MN or someone can chime in with sounding analysis. Quite true... just with 3/3 we assumed high ratios to get more snow and were burned... though other stuff was in play. Just saying we should check before auto assuming 10:1 SRs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 15, 2014 Author Share Posted March 15, 2014 I told y'all from the get go, 3-5. Be vigilant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 l Isn't that rain? Output graph says 18" of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 3/3 was a great storm....hope this one is the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 WxBell posted euro individual member maps for last nights ens run. There are some big hits from the ull. I personally don't think we'll get much if anything from it. But some porn solutions in there for giggles. If you have access, check out #8,19, and 31. LOL http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/yeps_members.php page cannot be found and I,m a member!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 I told y'all from the get go, 3-5. Be vigilant. think you're the most accurate !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 I cannot agree with this more. I see the tendency from some to automatically hop onto the snow maps without a deeper analysis. I would include myself in that category until recently. Now I have a checklist of some of the stuff I try to take a deeper look at after the runs come in. Temps (surface and above) Rates Ratios Convection (someone always talks about the potential but it never really verifies) The best ratios are going to be in a very thing strip where the best forcing lines up with the -12 to -16 C layer. I'm thinking it will come down to nowcasting /short range models to pinpoint it. This does't really look like a thundersnow scenario at all but I could be wrong. No unstable layer and vertical velocities are kind of meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Quite true... just with 3/3 we assumed high ratios to get more snow and were burned... though other stuff was in play. Just saying we should check before auto assuming 10:1 SRs It doesn't really matter.. If you get in good banding with dendrites you'll get higher ratios but most other things point to lower than usual even if it's kinda cold for this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 The best ratios are going to be in a very thing strip where the best forcing lines up with the -12 to -16 C layer. I'm thinking it will come down to nowcasting /short range models to pinpoint it. This does't really look like a thundersnow scenario at all but I could be wrong. No unstable layer and vertical velocities are kind of meh. It seems like someone mentions thundersnow in just about every snowstorm we have, but despite it only happening very rarely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 15, 2014 Author Share Posted March 15, 2014 Warmth is over-performing. 63* here. Not sure what that may mean for the storm over the next 48 hours. MDstorm It is? [top]000 FEUS71 KLWX 151731 EOLLWX BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON DC ENHANCED METRO FORECAST/OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 131 PM EDT SAT MAR 15 2014 DCZ001-MDZ004-009-013-016-VAZ042-052>054-152100- WASHINGTON DC GREATER METROPOLITAN AREA FORECAST .THIS AFTERNOON...MOSTLY SUNNY AND BREEZY. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. WEST WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 It seems like someone mentions thundersnow in just about every snowstorm we have, but despite it only happening very rarely. Hasn't happened here since Jan 26th 2011. I don't even recall it in Feb 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 15, 2014 Author Share Posted March 15, 2014 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/43211-saint-patricks-day-snow-event-ii/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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