yoda Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 The GGEM is wetter than the RGEM on the northern end, bringing 0.4" line to north of Baltimore. So GGEM sort of agrees with QPF on BWI and DCA then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 UKMET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Pretty sure that's the old run. 12z looks pretty good. Edit...nevermind, you got the right one but posted the one hour where it looks bleakest. Looks just fine to me. he's in SBY, that's about when he turns to snow lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 UKMET. how about the preceding 6 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 UKMET. Similar to GFS, shows heaviest band or precip right on Dc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 how about the preceding 6 hrs Going to have to wait for meteocentre for that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 UKmet is very GFS'ish with that line of qpf draped across central MD/NVA at 48 hrs here are the 850 and 700mb RH maps at 12Z Monday http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=at&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ukmet≤=850&va=rhum&in=5&pl=cf&ft=h48&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=at&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ukmet≤=700&va=rhum&in=5&pl=cf&ft=h48&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Within one mile? NAM and Euro give northern MD basically 0 while GFS gives northern MD up to 6". So basically I can expect cloudy skies tomorrow night or snow with 6". Ya that's a good forecast for 36hr lead time. Not trying to be a jerk. But there is a forum for PA. Having a meltdown because the models cut your qpf in a forum where we are still expecting a decent storm is ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 UKmet is very GFS'ish with that line of qpf draped across central MD/NVA at 48 hrs here are the 850 and 700mb RH maps at 12Z Monday http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=at&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ukmet≤=850&va=rhum&in=5&pl=cf&ft=h48&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=at&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ukmet≤=700&va=rhum&in=5&pl=cf&ft=h48&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Ya it looks like GFS. So right now we have NAM/RGEM on southern path and GFS/UKMET northern and GGEM kinda in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Ya it looks like GFS. So right now we have NAM/RGEM on southern path and GFS/UKMET northern and GGEM kinda in between. The RGEM's northern cutoff is nowhere as stark as on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Not trying to be a jerk. But there is a forum for PA. Having a meltdown because the models cut your qpf in a forum where we are still expecting a decent storm is ridiculous. This forum covers large area too, not having a melt down, just want to forecast without having 3 solutions on the table this close to the start of an event. Depends where you live northern part of this forum might not get anything depending on what model is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 The RGEM's northern cutoff is nowhere as stark as on the NAM. Still the heaviest is located in same area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 GGEM RaleighWx snowmaps, fwiw, have 3" line on M/D line... 6" line is Charles to DCA to S Fauquier to Rockingham EZF ~8" and heaviest snow accums are in C VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 The RGEM's northern cutoff is nowhere as stark as on the NAM. NAM did well with the northern cutoff on 3/3 so it gives me some pause. But probably only if it keeps showing it @ 12z tomorrow. I personally think it's overdoing it right now. All other things being equal on the 12z nam run, I think the contours on the edge would verify spaced out a bit more and at least .25 pushing to the m/d. Just a wag but I'm having a hard time buying it as is with a sub 1030 hp and pretty moisture laden system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 GGEM through 12z monday. First blue is .50. Last green is .40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 he's in SBY, that's about when he turns to snow lol LOL exactly. Sorry I used the snapshot for the eastern shore cause I posted on my facebook site. GGEM looks good for most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 NAM did well with the northern cutoff on 3/3 so it gives me some pause. But probably only if it keeps showing it @ 12z tomorrow. I personally think it's overdoing it right now. All other things being equal on the 12z nam run, I think the contours on the edge would verify spaced out a bit more and at least .25 pushing to the m/d. Just a wag but I'm having a hard time buying it as is with a sub 1030 hp and pretty moisture laden system. Yup it did... but it also had the jackpot zone too far south (because of temps more than anything). The range in accumulations actually wasn't *that* huge in 3/3 from near the M/D line to the jackpot zone-- 3-4" vs. 7-8". Parts of Carroll County did better than a lot places in between there and the jackpot near the Loudon/Fairfax line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tanarus4u2 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 I do snow removal in Gainesville, VA so ive been watching this forum past few storms, great stuff guys. Thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 CMC, GFS, Ukie all look good for much of MD(esp DC points south and east), DE and Northern half of VA. NAM has sharpest cutoff and is further south. Progressive pattern with again ZERO blocking..we have seen this many times this winter. The models struggle with the area of greatest qpf and the northern edge. People on the northern fringe who are freaking out should know by now, the models often do not get this right in a pattern like this. Places in N MD will see less snow, but I will guarantee it will snow there. Its occurred all winter. NAM is not correct here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Warmth is over-performing. 63* here. Not sure what that may mean for the storm over the next 48 hours. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Warmth is over-performing. 63* here. Not sure what that may mean for the storm over the next 48 hours. MDstorm I dont think it means anything. Projected high was low 60s. I am at 59 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Based on what I have seen so far, here is my first call. Thinking 6-9" for DC will be on the low end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Really crappy trend here in northern MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 NAM did well with the northern cutoff on 3/3 so it gives me some pause. But probably only if it keeps showing it @ 12z tomorrow. I personally think it's overdoing it right now. All other things being equal on the 12z nam run, I think the contours on the edge would verify spaced out a bit more and at least .25 pushing to the m/d. Just a wag but I'm having a hard time buying it as is with a sub 1030 hp and pretty moisture laden system. it wasn't until the next morning that the nam snowfall map was actually what fell that day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Based on what I have seen so far, here is my first call. Thinking 6-9" for DC will be on the low end. I think the northern cutoff will be much sharper than what you're showing. 3" in Lancaster, for example, seems very generous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Really crappy trend here in northern MD. same thing happened last storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 I think the northern cutoff will be much sharper than what you're showing. 3" in Lancaster, for example, seems very generous. GGEM/GFS/UKMET all get at least .25-.4" up that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 CMC, GFS, Ukie all look good for much of MD(esp DC points south and east), DE and Northern half of VA. NAM has sharpest cutoff and is further south. Progressive pattern with again ZERO blocking..we have seen this many times this winter. The models struggle with the area of greatest qpf and the northern edge. People on the northern fringe who are freaking out should know by now, the models often do not get this right in a pattern like this. Places in N MD will see less snow, but I will guarantee it will snow there. Its occurred all winter. NAM is not correct here. the morning of the last storm the 06z nam had the correct snowfall map that actually happened in columbia md. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 GGEM/GFS/UKMET all get at least .25-.4" up that way. But do you know if all of that will accumulate? Are you sure there will be 10:1 ratios with everything sticking right away and no sun angle issues? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 DCA seems good right now for 3-5... I wouldn't take a direct 10:1 ratio... go underneath. We saw how bad it was on 3/3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.