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Saint Patrick's Day Snow Event


stormtracker

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Got to say LWX is going to have a really hard time with issuing WWAs... or even WSW's... I guess you could blanket WWA's and then upgrade to WSW's once event gets going and you have a better handle on what radar is doing and showing

Why would they have a hard time with a WSW?  and then downgrade to WWA later?

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What do I expect? I expect some consistency. Model went from being near NY with snow to now barely scrapping PA in like 24hrs. Also 36hrs away from an event would think maybe we have a clue what might happen. 

 

well you know nothing of NWP then-- this is why you don't get consistency -- it's pretty simple -- complex non-linear dynamical systems exhibit non-linear error growth :

 

b2002_AP_Ency_fig5.gif

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Well WSW requres confidence in 5" or more of snow... I dont think there is great confidence in that right now

 

I agree. They may raise watches for nova/smd before the afternoon afd but probably not . I'm pretty sure when the afternoon afd comes out there will be some watches up. 

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well you know nothing of NWP then-- this is why you don't get consistency -- it's pretty simple -- complex non-linear dynamical systems exhibit non-linear error growth :

 

b2002_AP_Ency_fig5.gif

 

Apparently you are just trying to make an excuse for how poor the models have been lately. Come on usually by now we would have a clue what was going to happen. WSW would be up by now in any other case if there was some consistency like normal. 

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Apparently you are just trying to make an excuse for how poor the models have been lately. Come on usually by now we would have a clue what was going to happen. WSW would be up by now in any other case if there was some consistency like normal. 

 

We already have a really good idea that there will be a swath of .75+ precip nearby. If you want accuracy within 1 mile then I don't know what to tell you. Your expectations are unrealistic. 

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Who said either?  I don't get where this is coming from?  We're discussing what the model shows, no?

come on dude.. plenty of people have said the GFS is awful. even I've said it has issues.. though never really outright totally dismissed it.

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We already have a really good idea that there will be a swath of .75+ precip nearby. If you want accuracy within 1 mile then I don't know what to tell you. Your expectations are unrealistic. 

 

Within one mile? NAM and Euro give northern MD basically 0 while GFS gives northern MD up to 6". So basically I can expect cloudy skies tomorrow night or snow with 6". Ya that's a good forecast for 36hr lead time. 

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Within one mile? NAM and Euro give northern MD basically 0 while GFS gives northern MD up to 6". So basically I can expect cloudy skies tomorrow night or snow with 6". Ya that's a good forecast for 36hr lead time. 

 

It almost seems like you haven't been watching models for years. When has the northern edge of a setup like this not had spread at this lead? Instead of blaming models look at everything available and make your own forecast. 

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Apparently you are just trying to make an excuse for how poor the models have been lately. Come on usually by now we would have a clue what was going to happen. WSW would be up by now in any other case if there was some consistency like normal. 

 

just being realistic -- not every forecast problem is created equal -- sometimes there's uncertainty right up until game time, especially if you want a ridiculous forecast for your backyard -- you people are crazy, would a WSW really make you feel better...

 

if you're unhappy with the progress of NWP -- i could recommend some great programs for you to go get a degree at -- you could even come to the one i work for, we have lots of great DA/NWP scientists

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It almost seems like you haven't been watching models for years. When has the northern edge of a setup like this not had spread at this lead? Instead of blaming models look at everything available and make your own forecast. 

 

Come on this storm has shifted like 100miles south in 24hrs. 24hrs ago you guys we're saying it was going to be too warm down in DC cause the 850 line was nearby and 2M line was north. Now those lines shifted way south from 24hrs ago. 

 

Desktop_1.gif

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come on dude.. plenty of people have said the GFS is awful. even I've said it has issues.. though never really outright totally dismissed it.

No, what I'm saying is...you said that people said it was awful (and they have) and then, because it's showing what they want, they are now saying it's the greatest model evar!    I don't see that.  I think people are simply describing what it shows.   Saying it's a great hit doesn't mean it's a great model. 

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Within one mile? NAM and Euro give northern MD basically 0 while GFS gives northern MD up to 6". So basically I can expect cloudy skies tomorrow night or snow with 6". Ya that's a good forecast for 36hr lead time. 

 

 

No one throws fits when things trend north, but when the go south the world comes to an end..it happens, when we have strong confluence.

 

Feb 2012-- 

Jan 13-- this was even WARM event with confluence.

March 3 of this year..

 

It's not unpredented. If it moved north, you'd not notice the moans and groans from the NC or SOVA folks. 

 

If I were in your area forecasting, you have to convey uncertainty. 

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You need to stop being such a realist and join the leprechaun brigade. ;)

Stability last two runs of qpf is good for sure. Tho as recently as last night it was taking **** for its liquid portrayal. I'm not just making stuff up here lol. Of course even the 0z run looked pretty similar to the euro other than qpf.
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No one throws fits when things trend north, but when the go south the world comes to an end..it happens, when we have strong confluence.

 

Feb 2012-- 

Jan 13-- this was even WARM event with confluence.

March 3 of this year..

 

It's not unpredented. If it moved north, you'd not notice the moans and groans from the NC or SOVA folks. 

 

If I were in your area forecasting, you have to convey uncertainty. 

 

I don't care if it snows here or not. I just want to be able to make a forecast for once without having huge bust potential within a day and a half. 

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Come on this storm has shifted like 100miles south in 24hrs. 24hrs ago you guys we're saying it was going to be too warm down in DC cause the 850 line was nearby and 2M line was north. Now those lines shifted way south from 24hrs ago. 

 

 

 

We're in a progressive pattern with no blocking. It's ALWAYS like this leading in. Every single storm in a progressive pattern has big shifts at any lead.  Little things mean a lot. No model is perfect. If anything the models have done pretty outstanding. We started talking about this storm at long leads and it's still here as has never really vanished. THAT is remarkable. Now we're at the fine tuning stage. It's obvious the cutoff is a problem. It's sharp. And I'm glad I'm not on the edge. I haven't changed my personal forecast in 4 days. 

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I don't care if it snows here or not. I just want to be able to make a forecast for once without having huge bust potential within a day and a half. 

Well make your own forecast and don't rely on other people's analysis or the models you don't like? 

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No, what I'm saying is...you said that people said it was awful (and they have) and then, because it's showing what they want, they are now saying it's the greatest model evar!    I don't see that.  I think people are simply describing what it shows.   Saying it's a great hit doesn't mean it's a great model. 

I'm not going to pretend our psychological tuning here is anything other than to run toward the models that look the best. OK maybe no one said those specific words but I can guarantee the GFS stock has risen since last night lol.

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somebody (and maybe many) within 25 miles of the DCA/BWI corridor are likely going to get a record breaking March snow

that's about all we should expect from the models at 36 hrs+ out (which is what the 12Z run is with a start time at or a little after 0Z Monday)

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