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Saint Patrick's Day Snow Event


stormtracker

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Any update on EURO ens?

Vast improvement over 0z run. Basically a solid hit here. Looks like a 1-2 punch with precip. I think some members tag us with the trailing energy. Over .50 on the means. 850's no problem. Track is right through ga/sc and off obx. Great run imo.

I'm not sure what York is looking at. Notably better than the op overall.

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Vast improvement over 0z run. Basically a solid hit here. Looks like a 1-2 punch with precip. I think some members tag us with the trailing energy. Over .50 on the means. 850's no problem. Track is right through ga/sc and off obx. Great run imo.

I'm not sure what York is looking at. Notably better than the op overall.

 

He is ignored on PA forum. He is one of those people if it isn't huge it is not good. Yes looks better than OP. .8"+ DC/Balt. .7"+ northern tier. 

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perhaps he wants it more north since he lives way north of us but he seems to be fishing for a hecs and only a hecs. 

I am, and I am in the same boat, if not worse since I am about 30 miles north of Philly, but its March...we finally melted all the rest of our icey snow crud pack and if it were to warm up I could start my outdoor activities, hiking, gold, tennis, running...ect, so if it is going to be miserable out and ruin those things I at least want something historic not some moderate snow event I have already seen numerous times this winter. 

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Vast improvement over 0z run. Basically a solid hit here. Looks like a 1-2 punch with precip. I think some members tag us with the trailing energy. Over .50 on the means. 850's no problem. Track is right through ga/sc and off obx. Great run imo.

I'm not sure what York is looking at. Notably better than the op overall.

I didn't actually see anything bob chill, highzen asked and I just translated what I read. Sorry I should just stick with lurking and enjoying everyone's great insight.

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I didn't actually see anything bob chill, highzen asked and I just translated what I read. Sorry I should just stick with lurking and enjoying everyone's great insight.

People in philly will not like this run as much as people in dc. good thing there is a philly forum.

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I think the models are likely stuck in between two solutions right now.  They aren't sure, and neither am I, if enough energy is going to come out of the southwest to produce a storm up the east coast.  They are splitting the difference and thus a relatively weak storm over the east on most guidance today.  I have a feeling it is more likely either not enough energy comes out and there isnt much of a storm at all...or if enough does come out the trough consolidates more and we have a more amped system like the JMA/UKMET solutions.  This also has bearing on the system later in the week, if we get no big storm Monday the trough axis will pull back into the midwest and the second low will cut to the lakes.  If the first storm bombs out into the northeast the trough will be pulled east and the next system becomes a threat. 

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F it. I was ready for Spring but its cold. And if its gonna be cold let it snow. Besides I only need 5 inches to top 60 for the season. 

 

One thing that has happened all winter is the models have gotten juicier the closer we have gotten to our events. It seems like there will be plenty of moisture available with the gulf involvement. I would expect to see some juiced up solutions as we get closer.

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I think the models are likely stuck in between two solutions right now.  They aren't sure, and neither am I, if enough energy is going to come out of the southwest to produce a storm up the east coast.  They are splitting the difference and thus a relatively weak storm over the east on most guidance today.  I have a feeling it is more likely either not enough energy comes out and there isnt much of a storm at all...or if enough does come out the trough consolidates more and we have a more amped system like the JMA/UKMET solutions.  This also has bearing on the system later in the week, if we get no big storm Monday the trough axis will pull back into the midwest and the second low will cut to the lakes.  If the first storm bombs out into the northeast the trough will be pulled east and the next system becomes a threat. 

 

models don't really "split the difference" -- take for example the full envelope of uncertainty which you can express as a probability density function based on the initial condition -- a particular model solution is a discrete point on that pdf -- a *single* model has no knowledge whatsoever of the shape of the actual pdf (which we can assume in this case ranges from a good deal of energy being left int he SW on one end of the distribution to a consolidated system on the other end, as you correctly pointed out). 

 

So this idea that models can "split the difference" which in your case would be taking an average of the bimodal pdf you describe isn't correct -- frankly if you take your explanation from a physical standpoint today's solution of a "weaker" system would have been the least likely scenario to show up, when in fact, most guidance have something in between what you described were the two "most likely" scenarios.

 

And just from a fundamental standpoint, its false to just assume that the current model solutions are any less correct  than the two "likely" scenarios you described. 

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00z euro going to fook us again?

Probably not at this lead. Seems like it's close to locking in on some sort of "event". If the 0z run looks a bit better or worse it won't mean much in the grand scheme. If it get's much better or worse then it's more noteworthy but not worth staying up for.

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Probably not at this lead. Seems like it's close to locking in on some sort of "event". If the 0z run looks a bit better or worse it won't mean much in the grand scheme. If it get's much better or worse then it's more noteworthy but not worth staying up for.

 

Now that daylight saving time has kicked in and everything is pushed an hour back.

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models don't really "split the difference" -- take for example the full envelope of uncertainty which you can express as a probability density function based on the initial condition -- a particular model solution is a discrete point on that pdf -- a *single* model has no knowledge whatsoever of the shape of the actual pdf (which we can assume in this case ranges from a good deal of energy being left int he SW on one end of the distribution to a consolidated system on the other end, as you correctly pointed out).

So this idea that models can "split the difference" which in your case would be taking an average of the bimodal pdf you describe isn't correct -- frankly if you take your explanation from a physical standpoint today's solution of a "weaker" system would have been the least likely scenario to show up, when in fact, most guidance have something in between what you described were the two "most likely" scenarios.

And just from a fundamental standpoint, its false to just assume that the current model solutions are any less correct than the two "likely" scenarios you described.

I see how what I said was taken that way. I did not mean to suggest the models, which are just projections based on equations of the atmosphere, were splitting between two possible outcomes or model solutions but rather today they are ejecting just enough energy to produce a partial phase and weak system which is splitting the difference between a fully phased system and no phasing at all. I agree the partial phase is possible but just feel in the end if enough energy does come out to initiate cyclogenesis and some phasing, given the result of the storm yesterday, the time of year , thermal gradient, and my gut feeling :) , this is likely to trend towards a more amped system. I could also see too much energy split and the whole thing gets squashed. That was my point and probably not worth much anyways.
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I see how what I said was taken that way. I did not mean to suggest the models, which are just projections based on equations of the atmosphere, were splitting between two possible outcomes or model solutions but rather today they are ejecting just enough energy to produce a partial phase and weak system which is splitting the difference between a fully phased system and no phasing at all. I agree the partial phase is possible but just feel in the end if enough energy does come out to initiate cyclogenesis and some phasing, given the result of the storm yesterday, the time of year , thermal gradient, and my gut feeling :) , this is likely to trend towards a more amped system. I could also see too much energy split and the whole thing gets squashed. That was my point and probably not worth much anyways.

 

haha no worries -- i figured that's what you meant -- it's a delicate balance wrt phasing here -- i'm not sold on it trending towards a more amped system but surely that's in play -- i think it's fair to assume that models are converging on something that will give a good WAA burst of precip

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haha no worries -- i figured that's what you meant -- it's a delicate balance wrt phasing here -- i'm not sold on it trending towards a more amped system but surely that's in play -- i think it's fair to assume that models are converging on something that will give a good WAA burst of precip

 

Yes, and doing that at a good time of day (or night, rather), for this time of year.

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18z NAM FWIW is cutting it close at the 850 level from 75 and on

 

DCA/IAD/BWI ~28-30 at 2am MON morning (aka 06z MON)

 

Looks fairly similar at 850mb to 12Z, but that's probably splitting hairs for the NAM at that range.  In both cases, you can see the CAD wedging in at that level in the isotherm signature.  Also  has one low centered way down on the LA/MS border, while it looks like a coastal trough/low is forming around NC, underneath that high.

 

(EDIT:  Gah, meant isoTHERM, not isoBAR...corrected!)

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Euro member output is solid. 23 members show 6"+. Only 3 show no snow. 11 show 12"+.

Just about 6" on the means for kgai. DC not out yet. Pretty unanimous for a snow event of some sort.

ETA: Considering it's prob not going to be 10:1 snow and there will be surface problems during the first part those #'s are obviously inflated. Decent support for a 3-6" event with some upside.

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