SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 There are lots of similarities to Mar 3 including NWS having absurdly high probabilities at lead and then being afraid to pull the trigger on a WSW. I already can't remember, did they issue the winter storm warning for 8-12 sunday morning? When did the watch go up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 NWS gives us more than a 10% chance for 8" or more. The fact that there is a statistically significant chance for more than winter storm warning criteria indicates to me a winter storm watch should be issued. A watch is posted for a 50% confidence of 5 or more inches, 6 or more west toward the allegheny front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 There is enough uncertainty imo to hold off on a watch till the afternoon update. On the other hand, nothing wrong with putting a watch up now for the highest probability area, and deciding later whether to upgrade to a warning or go to an advisory if current trends hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 A watch is posted for a 50% confidence of 5 or more inches, 6 or more west toward the allegheny front Ok, thanks that makes more sense. Does this mean a 50% chance for 5 inches in any given location, or 5" in any part of the forecast area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 he's pure weenie and always goes with the snowiest forecast.....toss it if he's right, it's luck I was not counting on his actual QPF thoughts, just liked some of his points. Like JB, JB2, DT, etc., all should be taken with a grain of salt. Now lets hope for a slight N shift today that makes everyone in the DMV happy. Just saw JB2 update. Interesting. I'm sure you know how to find it on FB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Ok, thanks that makes more sense. Does this mean a 50% chance for 5 inches in any given location, or 5" in any part of the forecast area? Usually the area of best confidence to see warning criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 There is enough uncertainty imo to hold off on a watch till the afternoon update. On the other hand, nothing wrong with putting a watch up now for the highest probability area, and deciding later whether to upgrade to a warning or go to an advisory if current trends 12z guidance will be telling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 I already can't remember, did they issue the winter storm warning for 8-12 sunday morning? When did the watch go up? The watch went up in the overnight package coming into Saturday morning though I remember there was question why they waited that long at that point given their high odds of reaching criteria on those somewhat silly public maps. In this case WPC had 70%+ odds of 4"+ across the area yesterday and LWX was more or less in the same camp. They must be wizards given how the models were/are still bouncing around... but clearly there's tons of uncertainty etc.. like we usually see 70%+ for 4+ of snow so far out to begin with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 The watch went up in the overnight package coming into Saturday morning though I remember there was question why they waited that long at that point given their high odds of reaching criteria on those somewhat silly public maps. In this case WPC had 70%+ odds of 4"+ across the area yesterday and LWX was more or less in the same camp. They must be wizards given how the models were/are still bouncing around... but clearly there's tons of uncertainty etc.. like we usually see 70%+ for 4+ of snow so far out to begin with. Strength of that High will once again determine the cutoff line of precip. I could see areas north of the mason Dixon line getting completely ripped off again. The southward shift will stop at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 GFS is turning out to be steadier(and more realistic) in recent model cycles. The GFS seems to have settled more than the other models, and has been showing DC getting ~15-20 mm qpf as snow every model run for the last couple of days. There have been some minor fluctuations, but not the big north-south shifts we've been seeing in the other models. But I still think there's a good chance that this goes south. There are reasons to discount the NAM, Euro, RPM, and now RGEM. But taken together, that's a pretty strong signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Strength of that High will once again determine the cutoff line of precip. I could see areas north of the mason Dixon line getting completely ripped off again. The southward shift will stop at some point. I never got the bullishness from everyone.. including CWG tho I was pretty much forced along into that given I had the forecast today. There is no major forcing with the system and it's super late. Not sure the need to go with such high odds of reaching 4"+ etc from 3 days or more out. There's not a lot to be gained by that. Forecasters in this area are usually more reserved too... which makes it even more peculiar.. not like models have been locked in or anything either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 The GFS seems to have settled more than the other models, and has been showing DC getting ~15-20 mm qpf as snow every model run for the last couple of days. There have been some minor fluctuations, but not the big north-south shifts we've been seeing in the other models. But I still think there's a good chance that this goes south. There are reasons to discount the NAM, Euro, RPM, and now RGEM. But taken together, that's a pretty strong signal. add the JMA fwiw, it's only got around .35" total qpf thru 0Z Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 I never got the bullishness from everyone.. including CWG tho I was pretty much forced along into that given I had the forecast today. There is no major forcing with the system and it's super late. Not sure the need to go with such high odds of reaching 4"+ etc from 3 days or more out. There's not a lot to be gained by that. Forecasters in this area are usually more reserved too... which makes it even more peculiar.. not like models have been locked in or anything either. there's always the usual 48-72 forecast problems everyone knows, but I thought you weren't bullish particularly because of temp climo, citing mos, etc. if this fails, it will be for the exact opposite reason(s) than climo, namely, because the cold air overwhelms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 so when can I post the first sat pic of this dying dog? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 there's always the usual 48-72 forecast problems everyone knows, but I thought you weren't bullish particularly because of temp climo, citing mos, etc. if this fails, it will be for the exact opposite reason(s) than climo, namely, because the cold air overwhelms I was talking temps like 2-3 days ago when they looked milder in DC. I was gone pretty much all day yesterday because the conversation was annoying me here. From 5+ days out climo is usually the best guide.. and it's still a good guide for a cap even if it ends up totally failing. Not to mention our overall climo doesn't generally support 70+ odds of a 4+ widespread event here from three days. I was particularly confused by WPCs numbers yesterday.. they are usually fairly reserved and are obviously among the best in the business. They might be right.. it was just odd as far as I was concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 add the JMA fwiw, it's only got around .35" total qpf thru 0Z Tuesday And the high-res NAM, which looks like the RPM. The higher-resolution models seem to think this is going south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 9Z SREF, total qpf, the 24 hrs .5" line came south a bit and the 1" came north a bit in the end, there will be a very narrow east/west bulls eye, which seems to favor central VA at this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 SREF a bit sharper gradient than 3z...but similar...0.75" DCA, 0.6" BWI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 At least something holds with the GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 And the high-res NAM, which looks like the RPM. The higher-resolution models seem to think this is going south. drift south is very apparent....now can it stop and last minute jog north? if memory serves, the last event jogged south w/in 24 hrs, or at least closer in than this one, but whether or not that's correct, there's still time for the last hope/prayer of a jog back north what a fookin' mess this has become lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 drift south is very apparent....now can it stop and last minute jog north? if memory serves, the last event jogged south w/in 24 hrs, or at least closer in than this one, but whether or not that's correct, there's still time for the last hope/prayer of a jog back north what a fookin' mess this has become lol I just looked back and the GFS 3/3 0Z run had 12"+ snow maps around DCA, so yeah, the 3/3 event folded in the last 24 hrs. (or less), so who knows at this point with this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Mitch, right now this is a replay of 3/3 Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Mitch, right now this is a replay of 3/3 Sent from my iPhone it is, but the movie started a day earlier and there's hope they changed the ending! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Indeed. I got a disappointing three inches in that one and then cold dry air from hell. This feels similar. I am not seeing a lot of hope that the low and the attendant moisture will fare better this time against the press of cold. Hope that changes with today's 12z. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 If this ended up exactly like 3/3, I'd be very happy. That was a nice storm, even for the northern areas. Hopefully, the southward trend stops, and a slight shift north is shown. The precip cutoff on the northern edge of the 3/3 storm was overdone on the short-range guidance. So I would imagine that the crazy gradient shown by the 06z NAM was a bit overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 even at 15 hrs, the vortex is not pressing as far south on the NAM, so maybe that yields a better result (comparing 6z to 12z) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Glad you thought so, 3/3 with its initial 8-12 watch then 4-8 warning was pretty damn disappointing to me. It sucked for Baltimore area yielding three inches. Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 even at 15 hrs, the vortex is not pressing as far south on the NAM, so maybe that yields a better result (comparing 6z to 12z) I am seeing it holding the SW back even further Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 15, 2014 Author Share Posted March 15, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Glad you thought so, 3/3 with its initial 8-12 watch then 4-8 warning was pretty damn disappointing to me. It sucked for Baltimore area yielding three inches. Sent from my iPhone It had less to do with south movement and more with ratios, which were horrible....liquid basically verified here...and probably there too....MNtransplant took a core sample and had 8:1 ratios... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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