yoda Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 wow..didn't think it was that much. I'm guess there's some initial rain in thereProb 0.1 is rain... rest is snow... zwyts can confirm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Prob 0.1 is rain... rest is snow Yeah, we probably changeover between 8-9p as the heavier stuff moves in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 I dunno it had some pretty foolish solutions the past few days. I've yet to see how it's so super amazing now but I guess I don't watch models as much as some people. I use it more for track than anything else until close in....it has kind of been a leader as far as track rather than a lagger....but it does have high resolution and I think pretty good all around when close in....I think it is encouraging that it came back north and got wetter...hopefully the euro maintains or gets better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Prob 0.1 is rain... rest is snow... zwyts can confirm... I didn't parse the model, but it is a huge hit... 6"+ for DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 GGEM's not seeing the 2nd low hitting us. Big difference between it and the NAM/GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 I use it more for track than anything else until close in....it has kind of been a leader as far as track rather than a lagger....but it does have high resolution and I think pretty good all around when close in....I think it is encouraging that it came back north and got wetter...hopefully the euro maintains or gets better It's better than it was. The GFS has had a rough winter with the southern stuff. I think there's often an overfocus on QPF anyway though. I don't look at models as closely as many people here so I'm certainly not an authoritative person when it comes to which won in different storms.. a blend of the best ones usually gives the same answers in the end. Given we know the GFS bias here it looks a lot like the rest at this pt.. and as much as its hard to turn away from the huge hits on a model like the NAM we all know it's usually overdone with liquid etc. Of course everyone has their "that one time" but meh lol. I think we're looking OK at this point.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 GGEM's not seeing the 2nd low hitting us. Big difference between it and the NAM/GFS. who the **** cares. it's not there on the euro and most likely to be some light stuff it happens anyway. the last thing anyone should be interested in is what the nam shows at 84 hours right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 euro sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 who the **** cares. it's not there on the euro and most likely to be some light stuff it happens anyway. the last thing anyone should be interested in is what the nam shows at 84 hours right now. Dude, calm down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Dude, calm down. nobody is going to be calm when they see the euro...it's terrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 nobody is going to be calm when they see the euro...it's terrible QPF similar to gfs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 QPF similar to gfs? Probably less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 QPF similar to gfs? The GFS is like Niagara Falls compared to the euro...maybe 0.3" total for DC...less north of there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Probably less. Hopefully it is just a 1/21 style blip... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 The GFS is like Niagara Falls compared to the euro...maybe 0.3" total for DC...less north of there So we have NAM/GGEM big hit.. UKIE/GFS okay hit... EURO a teeny nudge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 3/3 dried out massively up here in balt. South issues and suppressed are quite believeable as a potential outcome up my way. Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 RPM is the furthest south of them all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 The models have been extremely frustrating this year, especially lately. I'm a bit flummoxed on this one....the spread is much bigger than usual and it isn't just the north/south issue, but how amped and juiced the storm gets...If the Canadian had looked like its 12z run, we could maybe toss the NAM, and blend the globals....like Ian said, I don't think verbatim QPF differences mean a whole lot but this gap is pretty significant....the euro gets crushed and sheared out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 I think this is a very complex system and may be a nowcast event. Mid-march climo + typical Miller A may make things very interesting on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 RPM is the furthest south of them all RPM Snowfall.png Thanks Martin! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 I think this is a very complex system and may be a nowcast event. Mid-march climo + typical Miller A may make things very interesting on Sunday. In other words, you hope the euro is wrong...so do I Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 I'm a bit flummoxed on this one....the spread is much bigger than usual and it isn't just the north/south issue, but how amped and juiced the storm gets...If the Canadian had looked like its 12z run, we could maybe toss the NAM, and blend the globals....like Ian said, I don't think verbatim QPF differences mean a whole lot but this gap is pretty significant....the euro gets crushed and sheared out... Maybe it is up to it's usual holding too much back stuff. Who knows. UKMET was in the NAM/GGEM camp too. Hard to go against south trend though. Ukmet was a bit south of 12Z, ggem was a bit north, but not a surprise cause it was way south at 12Z compared to last night, NAM was south of 12Z, GFS was south. So maybe euro just getting to more south solution quicker? We will see what 12Z brings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Euro doesn't usually miss the good storms at this range. Also, once it bails on a storm within 3 days, it usually doesn't get it back (although there was that Boxing Day storm). In any case, let's hope we don't spend the next 12-24 hours watching the other models follow the Euro. On the other hand, maybe someone can offer a technical reason why this latest Euro run might be discounted. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TerpWeather Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 WPC preferences: EVOLVING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SRN PLAINS THIS WEEKENDSURFACE CYCLONE IMPACTING THE DEEP SOUTH AND MID-ATLANTIC~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~PREFERENCE: BLEND OF 12Z ECMWF...00Z UKMET...00Z CMC THRU 12Z/17BLEND OF 00Z UKMET/CMC FROM 12Z 17-18...F060-F084CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGEA COMPLEX EVOLUTION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND POOR RUN-TO RUNCONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS REDUCES CONFIDENCE BELOW AVERAGE. THEINTERACTION OF A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING EWD THROUGH AZ/NM...ASHORTWAVE DIVING SWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AND LESS DEFINED NRNSTREAM ENERGY FORECAST TO REACH THE DAKOTAS EARLY SUN MORNING HASMADE FOR A CHALLENGING FORECAST.ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI HEIGHT PLOTS SHOW MORE SUPPORT FOR A STRONGERNRN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BY MON MORNING AND FOR AMORE ELONGATED TROUGH AXIS THAN DEPICTED BY THE 00Z NAM/GFS OVERTEXAS AND OLD MEXICO...AT LEAST THROUGH MON MORNING. AFTER MONMORNING...ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI PLOTS SHOW FAR LESS CLUSTERING. THE00Z ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SHORTWAVE AMPLIFYING SWDTHROUGH THE PLAINS SUN MORNING COMPARED TO ITS PREVIOUS RUN...ANDTHEREFORE DOES NOT CARRY MUCH OF A NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE ACROSS THEOHIO VALLEY BY MON MORNING. THIS CAUSES THE 00Z ECMWF TO BESTRONGER/SLOWER WITH A SRN STREAM WAVE ACROSS THE GULF COAST ONMON/TUE...WITH HARDLY ANY ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FOR THIS IDEA.THERE IS DECENT SUPPORT FOR A 12Z ECMWF...00Z UKMET...00Z CMCSOLUTION THROUGH 12Z/17...BUT BY 12Z/18...THE 12Z ECMWF HASTRENDED AWAY FROM ITS OWN CONTINUITY WITH A MORE SHEARED SHORTWAVEACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ALONG WITH THE UKMET. THE 00Z ECMWF DOES NOTAPPEAR TO BE ANY BETTER AS REFERENCED ABOVE. THEREFORE...BY MONNIGHT...THE PREFERENCE IS FOR A 00Z UKMET/CMC BLEND...GIVEN THATTHE GFS STILL APPEARS TOO SLOW/STRONG BY TUE MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 WPC preferences: Very interesting. They are essentially discounting the 0Z Euro as it applies to Sun night/Monday. I guess that is good news that the run had virtually no ensemble support and that WPC thinks it is not to be heavily weighted. CMC/Ukie blend would be a nice result. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 NAM south like euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swvirginiawx Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 NAM south like euro. Not a huge surprise given strength and placement of HP. Models were definitely underestimating it a few days ago, but now I have to wonder if they're being too aggressive. Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Outside of the fact that we probably won't waste as much QPF as compared to the 03/03 event (well, let's hope not anyway), some of the concerns are strikingly similar to the last event. It's going to be a narrow lattitudinal window of opportunity...again...of being cold enough for mostly snow, yet far enough into the moisture gradient. Such is life on the tail end of a pivoting PV. During the last event, the 00Z models trended south late Sun evening, just as the event was unfolding. In the end, areas along/north of I70 still managed to so well, while a lot of us in and around the metro got 3-6", with the mode closer to 3.5-4". I would be quite happy with that actually. Nobody said the "sweet spot" has to be 6-10"; I still think there will be either mixing or onset pcpn waste to rain the farther south one goes into the higher QPF, and/or dendritic growth issues (small flakes). I also recall the dry slot being more of an issue with the downslope WSW flow above the BL. Not a huge surprise given strength and placement of HP. Models were definitely underestimating it a few days ago, but now I have to wonder if they're being too aggressive. Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swvirginiawx Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Outside of the fact that we probably won't waste as much QPF as compared to the 03/03 event (well, let's hope not anyway), some of the concerns are strikingly similar to the last event. It's going to be a narrow lattitudinal window of opportunity...again...of being cold enough for mostly snow, yet far enough into the moisture gradient. Such is life on the tail end of a pivoting PV. During the last event, the 00Z models trended south late Sun evening, just as the event was unfolding. In the end, areas along/north of I70 still managed to so well, while a lot of us in and around the metro got 3-6", with the mode closer to 3.5-4". I would be quite happy with that actually. Nobody said the "sweet spot" has to be 6-10"; I still think there will be either mixing or onset pcpn waste to rain the farther south one goes into the higher QPF, and/or dendritic growth issues (small flakes). I also recall the dry slot being more of an issue with the downslope WSW flow above the BL. Dry slot is definitely my biggest concern down here. Short-range models (especially HRRR) eventually picked up on it 3/3, but by then the damage was already done. Lots of busted forecasts. The big south trend on globals was a red herring. I'm a little hesitant to jump on this train with that so fresh in my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
potvn_sx Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 NAM south, GFS north. I'm so sick of these models. Yup...the only thing for sure is "part 2" is gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.