Ian Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 GFS is ok.. and not really that different than the Euro. The NAM is terrible with winter storms and should never be trusted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 if the NAM has one strength...its miller A storms. It did very well with the Feb 12-13. I had a foot of snow when i woke up had I woke up sooner, I'd a had close to a foot too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 GFS is ok.. and not really that different than the Euro. The NAM is terrible with winter storms and should never be trusted. when we get that NINO next year, you'll change ur tune on the NAM NINO's are its wheelhouse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 sadly, the NAM is too high I think we probably max at .75", though I certainly wish for the NAM to be right, whether by accident or skill Uh... the UKIE are 6 hr QPF maps... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 GFS is ok.. and not really that different than the Euro. The NAM is terrible with winter storms and should never be trusted. Mostly true but don't forget about trends. Look, two weeks ago it knew before the other models that dry air was pushing further south. I wouldn't use it to forecast verbatim but the fact that is still shows a good storm is notable. IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 when we get that NINO next year, you'll change ur tune on the NAM NINO's are its wheelhouse I like the NAM for what it's made for. I don't think it was made to model a winter storm outside of 48 hours etc. Or even close in per se. The GFS has had problems with the western precip envelope all winter pretty much. If you factor that in on this run it looks a lot like the Euro outside some details.. again not necessarily focusing on precip totals in the area but evolution. Ride the Euro.. and add in NAM qpf if you're a weenie I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Uh... the UKIE are 6 hr QPF maps... not on Plymouth check out the 60 hr and then the 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 I think you have to give the GGEM/RGEM a fair amount of respect at this point....yes...the GGEM Is not really a mid-long range model, but it has done well this winter..especially with 2/13 and it owned 3/3 at the end....curious to see it shortlyI dunno it had some pretty foolish solutions the past few days. I've yet to see how it's so super amazing now but I guess I don't watch models as much as some people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 15, 2014 Author Share Posted March 15, 2014 0z GGEM 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 60 http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/695_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 0z GGEM 48 gunna be close, but I'd prefer to see it north of where it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 60 http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/695_100.gif that's pretty good actually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 15, 2014 Author Share Posted March 15, 2014 gunna be close, but I'd prefer to see it north of where it is You always panic early. GGEM looks solid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 You always panic early early and often! 72 http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/492_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 GEM seems to have lost the idea of the trailing bowling ball Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Where's the pretty maps? come out a little later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 15, 2014 Author Share Posted March 15, 2014 early and often! 72 http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/492_100.gif nice. Off to bed..i can sleep through the euro disappointment...gotta head in to work tomm. All in all, a pretty good day of runs..we're getting close in...we're looking solid for a few inches of late season snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 early and often! 72 http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/492_100.gif Honestly though, the GGEM is tough to look at on the iPad. Whew. Those black and white lines make me go cross-eyed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 nice. Off to bed..i can sleep through the euro disappointment...gotta head in to work tomm. All in all, a pretty good day of runs..we're getting close in...we're looking solid for a few inches of late season snow. yep....sleep tight, don't let the bed bugs bite! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Honestly though, the GGEM is tough to look at on the iPad. Whew. Those black and white lines make me go cross-eyed. I normally look at 2 things, the shading of the precip we're under in the bottom right box and the 700mb RH map, bottom left Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 GEM seems to have lost the idea of the trailing bowling ball how often do we get two good storms one day after the other? and the euro.. which is a god. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 how often do we get two good storms one day after the other? and the euro.. which is a god. how often do we get 1 good storm? lol this year being one of the few exceptions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Hr 54 and 60 on color very nice... GGEM looks like NAM on RaleighWx snow maps fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 GGEM is really tasty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Hr 54 and 60 on color very nice... GGEM looks like NAM on RaleighWx snow maps fwiw Very namesque. Looks really solid. Pretty significant snow totals if we were to take things verbatim. Not going to do that however, at least fully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 looks like about 1.25" for DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Surface temps (raw model output) are 34 at 8pm, 29 at 2am, and 25 at 8am. 850s are plenty cold. 0.05" by 8pm 0.45" between 8pm and 2am (0.5" total) 0.4" between 2am and 8am (0.9" total) 0.3" between 8am and 2pm (1.2" total) *Approximations based on WxBell maps A pretty great run for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 15, 2014 Author Share Posted March 15, 2014 looks like about 1.25" for DC wow..didn't think it was that much. I'm guess there's some initial rain in there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Looks similar to the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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