aldie 22 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 nam_3hr_snow_acc_ma_29.png DCA jackpot: hires_snow_acc_washdc_20.png Takoma Park special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Where do you get that text output? I usually wait around for Cobb. http://www.ready.noaa.gov/READYcmet.php go to this site, pick ur location (just use the lat/long) box, then click CONTINUE where you see "METEOROGRAM" drop box, click on the 84 hr. NAM model, the click on "GO" it will then tell you the current model or you can choose a previous run, then click "NEXT" Fill in the letter code down at the bottom and click "GET METEOROGRAM" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Last time the models said leesburg was too far north.....well...you know You will always be in a good spot. Even when you're not in a good spot it's still enough to please. Well, unless you're Ji SnowTV might be tuned into skinamax Sun-mon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 This is looking like a big hit south. This is so similar to the last event it is crazy. great analysis all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 nam_3hr_snow_acc_ma_29.png DCA jackpot: hires_snow_acc_washdc_20.png thx! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 nam_3hr_snow_acc_ma_29.png DCA jackpot: hires_snow_acc_washdc_20.png that bottom map looks like 1/30/10 x 1.5 +/- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Symblized Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 http://www.ready.noaa.gov/READYcmet.php go to this site, pick ur location (just use the lat/long) box, then click CONTINUE where you see "METEOROGRAM" drop box, click on the 84 hr. NAM model, the click on "GO" it will then tell you the current model or you can choose a previous run, then click "NEXT" Fill in the letter code down at the bottom and click "GET METEOROGRAM" Excellent. Thank you. All you MBY people, now you can check exactly what will be in YBY to the hundredth of a degree of latitude or longitude for NAM or GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Excellent. Thank you. All you MBY people, now you can check exactly what will be in YBY to the hundredth of a degree of latitude or longitude for NAM or GFS. MBY only allows me to pick the GFS... I do not have an option for the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 gfs lol....i wouldnt pay any attention to it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Symblized Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 MBY only allows me to pick the GFS... I do not have an option for the NAM Use latitude and longitude. The Glen Arm Post Office is at 39.45, -76.49. I was able to see both the NAM and GFS for that location. If you are using the new Google Maps, it's easy to get your exact lat and long. First, find your exact address. Then, right click on the map placeholder when you get your address on Google Maps, click "What's here?" and it will give you the lat and long at the top left under the search bar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Canadian will be out in a bit....I wouldnt sweat the GFS...it is pretty much as I expected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Canadian will be out in a bit....I wouldnt sweat the GFS...it is pretty much as I expected why would you ignore the gfs and not the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 why would you ignore the gfs and not the NAM? Damn, I agree with JI. Never thought I would. Ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Canadian will be out in a bit....I wouldnt sweat the GFS...it is pretty much as I expected not that I trust the GFS, if there is something to screw us with this, it will be suppression so for anyone paranoid about suppression, stay away from the medicine cabinet thru Monday evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 the GFS has alot more support than the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 why would you ignore the gfs and not the NAM? GFS was really horrendous with this system until yesterday I believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 why would you ignore the gfs and not the NAM? I'm not giving the NAM too much credence, but now that it has the right idea, it is going to better at QPF with its resolution even if too wet and too north at the moment...before it was obvious the NAM was completely out to lunch as it often is at that range, and there was no reason to even acknowledge it....This setup is not a good one for the GFS....I dont want to say it isnt a good model...it is...this is just not its forte..I dont care what it does...we have a number of other hi-res models...the GFS is out of its league when it comes to this set up at this point in time....I care way more about the Canadian and of course euro.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 GFS was really horrendous with this system until yesterday I believe It's been pretty bad this whole winter to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Still a solid event on the 00z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 I'm not giving the NAM too much credence, but now that it has the right idea, it is going to better at QPF with its resolution even if too wet and too north at the moment...before it was obvious the NAM was completely out to lunch as it often is at that range, and there was no reason to even acknowledge it....This setup is not a good one for the GFS....I dont want to say it isnt a good model...it is...this is just not its forte..I dont care what it does...we have a number of other hi-res models...the GFS is out of its league when it comes to this set up at this point in time....I care way more about the Canadian and of course euro.... I dont think the GFS is a good model for this kind of storm but the NAM at 48-60 is still outside its accuarte range. I have seen the NAM do dramatic flips 24-30 hours out. It dosent matter anyway.....the NAM and GFS are kids playing waiting for DAD(Euro) to get home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 I dont think the GFS is a good model for this kind of storm but the NAM at 48-60 is still outside its accuarte range. I have seen the NAM do dramatic flips 24-30 hours out. It dosent matter anyway.....the NAM and GFS are kids playing waiting for DAD(Euro) to get home well I hope he has a girlfriend with the Canadian! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 GFS was really horrendous with this system until yesterday I believe I dont think we have to add a caveat every time we talk about the models....about how awesome they are and amazing.... yes..models are incredible...I am awestruck by them....and I am looking forward to the GFS upgrades coming soon..As DTK and maybe a couple others mentioned, they have really compensated well for having much less money than the ECMWF...to perform as well as it does with such an inherent disadvantage is a credit to the guys at NCEP....now that that is out of the way It doesnt matter what the GFS says...it could be right...it could be wrong...I suspect it is too dry....but at this point it is more about trying to make the best forecast we can, and a best forecast at this point in time with this particular system won't incorporate the GFS very much other than as a cautionary flag.....which is why I said before the run, I didnt care what it showed.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 UK has around .5" qpf thru Monday 8AM with more to fall, but I can't say how much yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 not that I trust the GFS, if there is something to screw us with this, it will be suppression so for anyone paranoid about suppression, stay away from the medicine cabinet thru Monday eveningRaises handI don't have to be paranoid about suppression, it has been happening all day long. If this doesn't stop soon, suppression is going to bring depression to many here. I'd like to see one model run tonight not go south. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Gfs was nice with temps and light on qp. Temps are the bigger hurdle than precip. Being warm for the first half of .80 is the prob worse than being cold for a full .40+. It wasnt a bad run. Just drier. I would be more concerned if it added warmth but it didn't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 UK has around .5" qpf thru Monday 8AM with more to fall, but I can't say how much yet thats good to have a global model sorta of agree with the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 UK has around .5" qpf thru Monday 8AM with more to fall, but I can't say how much yet roughly, .25" qpf additional Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 thats good to have a global model sorta of agree with the NAM sadly, the NAM is too high I think we probably max at .75", though I certainly wish for the NAM to be right, whether by accident or skill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 I dont think the GFS is a good model for this kind of storm but the NAM at 48-60 is still outside its accuarte range. I have seen the NAM do dramatic flips 24-30 hours out. It dosent matter anyway.....the NAM and GFS are kids playing waiting for DAD(Euro) to get home I think you have to give the GGEM/RGEM a fair amount of respect at this point....yes...the GGEM Is not really a mid-long range model, but it has done well this winter..especially with 2/13 and it owned 3/3 at the end....curious to see it shortly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 sadly, the NAM is too high I think we probably max at .75", though I certainly wish for the NAM to be right, whether by accident or skill if the NAM has one strength...its miller A storms. It did very well with the Feb 12-13. I had a foot of snow when i woke up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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