Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 I've been feeling skeptical about this storm, but based on what we've seen today with regards to part 1, we are basically checking off our must-haves to get a snowstorm in DC in mid-March....overnight, burst of QPF in a short time, and high pressure in a good spot. Not that this will be the same magnitude as Feb. 12-13 (lest anyone think I'm comparing to that too much!), but it feels almost similar with the overnight first thump which could make for a wild night as it did back in Feb., and then the ULL later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 NAM meteogram for mby starting with 48 hours.....very sweet (totals on the right are mm (23.53mm is the total) + 48. 1024.9 0.4 -5.4 -5.3 534.8 554.5 0.00+ 51. 1023.8 -1.7 -2.9 -5.6 536.6 555.2 1.44+ 54. 1022.4 -3.4 -4.1 -6.1 536.3 553.7 5.33+ 57. 1020.1 -4.8 -5.5 -6.1 536.8 552.4 5.62+ 60. 1020.3 -6.1 -7.0 -5.6 537.2 552.9 6.98+ 63. 1021.4 -5.4 -6.7 -6.7 535.4 551.9 3.86+ 66. 1020.9 -3.4 -7.1 -6.7 535.5 551.8 0.30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Was 2/13 a Miller A? Or is this the first of the Winter season to impact us? Textbook Miller A. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 DCA meteogram off NAM + 48. 1024.0 1.9 -5.5 -5.9 536.4 555.5 0.00+ 51. 1022.9 -1.4 -2.5 -5.3 538.3 556.4 1.56+ 54. 1021.5 -3.1 -3.8 -5.6 537.7 554.5 6.11+ 57. 1019.2 -4.5 -5.2 -5.7 538.6 553.6 5.63+ 60. 1020.0 -5.7 -6.5 -5.3 538.1 553.6 8.10+ 63. 1020.9 -4.8 -6.4 -5.6 536.6 552.8 3.02+ 66. 1020.7 -3.1 -6.6 -5.8 536.6 552.8 0.36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 I'm still a tad concerned about the northern gradient/sharp cutoff as the cold high suppresses south and battles waa coming north. Stronger the high, stronger the suppression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 How does the Hi-Res NAM look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 I'm still a tad concerned about the northern gradient/sharp cutoff as the cold high suppresses south and battles waa coming north. Stronger the high, stronger the suppression. seems as we close in with any storm, it's either suppression or north trend to worry about this seems to have had us in its sight for many days now so I don't think we can ask for more at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 How does the Hi-Res NAM look? It was posted last page Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 00z RGEM has a 1030 H in NW Michigan at 8pm Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 How does the Hi-Res NAM look? IT's discussed over the last couple pages.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 seems as we close in with any storm, it's either suppression or north trend to worry about this seems to have had us in its sight for many days now so I don't think we can ask for more at this point I think you're in a great spot for this one, so enjoy! North of I-70 is where it could cut really close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 I'm still a tad concerned about the northern gradient/sharp cutoff as the cold high suppresses south and battles waa coming north. Stronger the high, stronger the suppression. I'm not....you're in a money spot...you're going to get demolished Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 NAM is a crush job. Right where we want it right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 00z RGEM has a 1030 H in NW Michigan at 8pm Sunday. big slug of moisture to our south just entering our area at 48 hrs http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/520_100.gif precip map http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/c36_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 I think you're in a great spot for this one, so enjoy! North of I-70 is where it could cut really close. Mason Dixon line to I-70 is most concerning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 I'm not....you're in a money spot...you're going to get demolished I hope so :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 I think my favorite thing here is to come to the site for first time in many hours and start reading about 3 pages back, like I am right now on page 18 and everthing favorable now. That may change by page 21 I know. Weather suspense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 I'm still a tad concerned about the northern gradient/sharp cutoff as the cold high suppresses south and battles waa coming north. Stronger the high, stronger the suppression. Understood... but I am just going to live in the moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 I think you're in a great spot for this one, so enjoy! North of I-70 is where it could cut really close. thanks, but N of 695 always finds a way to always meet, and usually beat, me but I'm perfectly happy with the NAM and don't need the Hi-Res NAM to verify as icing on this winter's cake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 NAM v Euro with second low. Considering the NAM had us at 300 degrees last night with fire raining from the sky probably should just be happy it crushes us with round one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Symblized Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 NAM meteogram for mby starting with 48 hours.....very sweet (totals on the right are mm (23.53mm is the total) + 48. 1024.9 0.4 -5.4 -5.3 534.8 554.5 0.00+ 51. 1023.8 -1.7 -2.9 -5.6 536.6 555.2 1.44+ 54. 1022.4 -3.4 -4.1 -6.1 536.3 553.7 5.33+ 57. 1020.1 -4.8 -5.5 -6.1 536.8 552.4 5.62+ 60. 1020.3 -6.1 -7.0 -5.6 537.2 552.9 6.98+ 63. 1021.4 -5.4 -6.7 -6.7 535.4 551.9 3.86+ 66. 1020.9 -3.4 -7.1 -6.7 535.5 551.8 0.30 Where do you get that text output? I usually wait around for Cobb. But I like this better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Mason Dixon line to I-70 is most concerning It's probably not as likely to have as much disparity as the 3/1 storm. Imo that area will make up for lower precip totals with more stickage. This event seems to have its sights set on a md/nova special. We've had a great run in the last 4-5 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Just got home, saw the rest of the NAM...that h5 neg tilt is interesting...with that look, I would think it's coming up the coast That h5 is something else. It's to be taken with a grain of salt at this point, but it sure is pretty to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 NAM v Euro with second low. Considering the NAM had us at 300 degrees last night with fire raining from the sky probably should just be happy it crushes us with round one. nam_precip_mslp_ma_29.png ecmwf_slp_precip_ma_17.png what??? no Wxbell NAM snow map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 NAM is a crush job. Right where we want it right now. Having the NAM in our favor at this point lends credibility to snow. I still think we need to temper the enthusiasm until after the model runs tomorrow. The northern cutoff needs to be identified fully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 I'm still a tad concerned about the northern gradient/sharp cutoff as the cold high suppresses south and battles waa coming north. Stronger the high, stronger the suppression. Being on the northern edge, I'm worried too lol (not too much). The 00z NAM is a bit reassuring with the northern expansion of the precip field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 It's probably not as likely to have as much disparity as the 3/1 storm. Imo that area will make up for lower precip totals with more stickage. This event seems to have its sights set on a md/nova special. We've had a great run in the last 4-5 weeks. Its been great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 what??? no Wxbell NAM snow map? DCA jackpot: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 It's probably not as likely to have as much disparity as the 3/1 storm. Imo that area will make up for lower precip totals with more stickage. This event seems to have its sights set on a md/nova special. We've had a great run in the last 4-5 weeks. Last time the models said leesburg was too far north.....well...you know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Nam won't collapse the SW shortwave like every other model does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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