WxMan1 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 It's tough to compare this to 3/1. Much better setup precip wise. The slug comes from the lower ms valley and the extreme cold dry Pac man wont stand much of a chance in the heaviest axis. This is a good storm setup any winter month Yeah, I agree. And it's arctic cold that's being tapped from the north, which is unlike the March 6 event last year. Hopefully, we don't have to deal with dry slotting, or small flake size. Convective enhancement would be nice, except it may throw off what could be a more even distribution of snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Whether you believe it or not (caveat to make everyone happy), the 0z NAM is a ridiculous run...cold, wet, overnight. Confluence is tight and won't budge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Yeah, I agree. And it's arctic cold that's being tapped from the north, which is unlike the March 6 event last year. Hopefully, we don't have to deal with dry slotting, or small flake size. Convective enhancement would be nice, except it may throw off what could be a more even distribution of snowfall. here ya' go.... Ft. Meade from the NAM...a hop, skip and a jump to your west SUN 8P 16-MAR 0.8 -7.1 1024 57 95 0.00 555 536 MON 2A 17-MAR -3.8 -6.5 1022 95 100 0.29 554 537 MON 8A 17-MAR -6.3 -6.7 1020 93 100 0.51 553 537 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Watching the 4km NAM to see if it agrees with the NAM... at hr 32 has 1041 H in NW MN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 It's tough to compare this to 3/1. Much better setup precip wise. The slug comes from the lower ms valley and the extreme cold dry Pac man wont stand much of a chance in the heaviest axis. This is a good storm setup any winter month Yeah, I'm sure we all might have flashbacks from "NAM" from 2 weeks ago, with it getting progressively colder but a sharper and closer precip gradient/cutoff. I cannot attest to any similarities (if they really are), but though there is a sharp gradient to the north it doesn't look as "dry" in northern MD and far southern PA compared to the earlier storm. Not sure if that means anything. Also, check out the 700-mb RH/VV field, you can see a "finger" of wrap-around cutting through MD/VA/DC on Monday; I don't know if that kind of thing showed up in the early March system. Oh, and it does look like "part 2" is heading up this way at the end of the NAM run, though the run ends before you can see it all. Looks to at least graze us here. Again, looking at the 700-mb RH/VV, looks like moisture is streaming back this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 here ya' go.... Ft. Meade from the NAM...a hop, skip and a jump to your west SUN 8P 16-MAR 0.8 -7.1 1024 57 95 0.00 555 536 MON 2A 17-MAR -3.8 -6.5 1022 95 100 0.29 554 537 MON 8A 17-MAR -6.3 -6.7 1020 93 100 0.51 553 537 *Drool* :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 NAM'd in every sense of the word. Nice negative tilt on the ULL at 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 *Drool* :-) and some more falls after 8AM, but it hasn't updated yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 DC Miller B screw zone strikes.on NAM. Western and eastern VA make out better. But I guess 0.9 qpf is alright. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 *Drool* :-) Seconded! ~0.8" QPF in 12 hours, with it getting progressively colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Watching the 4km NAM to see if it agrees with the NAM... at hr 32 has 1041 H in NW MN 4km NAM brings in scattered precip around 4pm Sunday. Starts as non-snow but we changeover as the heavier stuff arrives after sundown. 850s are below 0 (-4 to -5ish) from Sunday afternoon on and surface falls below 32 shortly after sundown. Through 5a Monday, 0.8-0.9" has fallen. ETA: Wow, through 8am (end of its run), 1.2" at DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 DC Miller B screw zone strikes.on NAM. Western and eastern VA make out better. But I guess 0.9 qpf is alright. ????? I hope this is snark! Miller B??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=03&model_dd=15&model_init_hh=00&fhour=63¶meter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Hi-res NAM has a 1.25"+ stripe though DCA and it is only through 12z with more to come Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Yeah, I'm sure we all might have flashbacks from "NAM" from 2 weeks ago, with it getting progressively colder but a sharper and closer precip gradient/cutoff. I cannot attest to any similarities (if they really are), but though there is a sharp gradient to the north it doesn't look as "dry" in northern MD and far southern PA compared to the earlier storm. Not sure if that means anything. Also, check out the 700-mb RH/VV field, you can see a "finger" of wrap-around cutting through MD/VA/DC on Monday; I don't know if that kind of thing showed up in the early March system. Oh, and it does look like "part 2" is heading up this way at the end of the NAM run, though the run ends before you can see it all. Looks to at least graze us here. Again, looking at the 700-mb RH/VV, looks like moisture is streaming back this way. Yep it's the 84 hour nam but looking at the negative tilt wind direction and RH at 700 you gives you a good idea of where round 2 is heading. Plenty of time yet to figure out round 2 but it's been trending northwest with every set of model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 ????? I hope this is snark! Miller B??? What kind of storm would it be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Yep it's the 84 hour nam but looking at the negative tilt wind direction and RH at 700 you gives you a good idea of where round 2 is heading. Plenty of time yet to figure out round 2 but it's been trending northwest with every set of model runs. Yeah, I know...84-h NAM and that kind of thing. But other models & ensemble members have suggested the possibility of the ULL hitting us with a decent 2nd batch. So it might not be totally out there. For right now, I'm focusing on the main stuff Sunday night into Monday, if we can lock that in with something pretty good (or better?), that would be great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Hi-res NAM has a 1.25"+ stripe though DCA and it is only through 12z with more to come I'm not sure today could have gone much better with the envelope. Part 1 is looking tastier every run. Nam is prob overdoing it but .75+ is during the best window keeps looking more promising Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 What kind of storm would it be? Hybrid miller A imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 What kind of storm would it be? It sure ain't a Miller B...or doesn't look like that! It's coming out of the southern stream, with the lead wave up into approximately the TN valley or a bit south of there, then another development as the ULL comes up. Classic Miller B would be a northern stream, e.g., a Clipper, that is forced to re-develop off the coast. Usually, those don't work for us and we get screwed in the dry slot. Dec. 26, 2010 is a prime and painful recent example...while Feb. 10, 2010 is a (rare) case where we actually score big from that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 I'm not sure today could have gone much better with the envelope. Part 1 is looking tastier every run. Nam is prob overdoing it but .75+ is during the best window keeps looking more promising it has gone perfect....I'd like to see the Canadian come north and moisten a tad...and of course the Euro to hold....the GFS as usual, I don't really care what it shows at this point... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Now I will go back to my question from the other day... Do you think the counties are worried about their salt supply now? No. Warm streets to start and not much to worry about road wise after 8am mon. The window of street impact is small Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Hybrid miller A imo I don't care if you call it a miller A or Miller B, or Miller S - It's a fantastic evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 I'm not sure today could have gone much better with the envelope. Part 1 is looking tastier every run. Nam is prob overdoing it but .75+ is during the best window keeps looking more promising 0.75+ that's all snow would be quite tasty, yes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 15, 2014 Author Share Posted March 15, 2014 Just got home, saw the rest of the NAM...that h5 neg tilt is interesting...with that look, I would think it's coming up the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 I'm not sure today could have gone much better with the envelope. Part 1 is looking tastier every run. Nam is prob overdoing it but .75+ is during the best window keeps looking more promising I've been feeling skeptical about this storm, but based on what we've seen today with regards to part 1, we are basically checking off our must-haves to get a snowstorm in DC in mid-March....overnight, burst of QPF in a short time, and high pressure in a good spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 It's a pure miller A Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 it has gone perfect....I'd like to see the Canadian come north and moisten a tad...and of course the Euro to hold....the GFS as usual, I don't really care what it shows at this point... Agree. Though I would like to see the GFS put out better QPF from what it had before. Given the track it had, seems like it "should" have been better. But yeah, I would like to see the GGEM work its way back to what it showed before, even if not that ridiculously extreme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 It's a pure miller A Was 2/13 a Miller A? Or is this the first of the Winter season to impact us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 it has gone perfect....I'd like to see the Canadian come north and moisten a tad...and of course the Euro to hold....the GFS as usual, I don't really care what it shows at this point... I'm feeling confident that both the ggem and euro will be soothing on the nerves. It's becoming clearer that the timing and precip will produce a decent event. Famous last words.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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