Bob Chill Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Nam looks fine for the nam through 48. No more weird warm stuff. I'm personally not worried about too far south at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Yeah this is way south radar at 48 hrs looks ok, but def. south of 18Z http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=048ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_048_sim_radar.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=sim_radar&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140315+00+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Looks pretty darn good at 57. Not sure what the worry is for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 That's a massive precip shield expanding from the Low in Mississippi all the way to Central Virginia! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Nam looks fine for the nam through 48. No more weird warm stuff. I'm personally not worried about too far south at all. we need to assign worries here you take north, I'll take south, Randy gets west.....who wants east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 00z NAM says we are in the 20-24 range as it snows Sunday overnight.... alrighty then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 15, 2014 Author Share Posted March 15, 2014 Nam looks fine for the nam through 48. No more weird warm stuff. I'm personally not worried about too far south at all. I'll take less precip and solid cold column any day over changeover mixy issues and heavy precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 00z NAM says we are in the 20-24 range as it snows Sunday overnight.... alrighty then Yeah, not sure I buy that, but I do like that its not showing 30-32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 we need to assign worries here you take north, I'll take south, Randy gets west.....who wants east? I haven't been worried for days. It's been a fun track. Were locking into good consensus. Even Ji might come around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 15, 2014 Author Share Posted March 15, 2014 Pretty solid run from the NAM. Pretty damn nice IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 48 hrs radar looked good, but 54 is even sweeter http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_054_sim_radar.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=00¶m=sim_radar&fhr=054&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140315+00+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Well Hr 60 fun for DC/N VA... 0.25 QPF+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 I'll take less precip and solid cold column any day over changeover mixy issues and heavy precip. Wait till tomorrow and early Sun runs. We prob won't be worrying about precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 NAM is still good for you guys, but I'm getting concerned about an even farther south track. Rooting for ya down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 15, 2014 Author Share Posted March 15, 2014 Yeah, not sure I buy that, but I do like that its not showing 30-32. Of course the cold is overdone, but we do have a fresh, relatively strong high, solid confluence....I can see 29-30 and SN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Wait till tomorrow and early Sun runs. We prob won't be worrying about precipI'm with you on these storms from the south trending wetter. It might be coming in like a wall and getting hot and heavy with dropping temps. Perfect HP positioning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 00z NAM RaleighWx snow map is fun to look at hr 60... but prob chop off 2-3 inches... and still looks very nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Of course the cold is overdone, but we do have a fresh, relatively strong high, solid confluence....I can see 29-30 and SN Yeah, I think that's more reasonable with the H in the right spot. My point was that I'd be worried if it showed 30-32 in raw output since it tends to run a bit too cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 central MD got nam'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Wow, the nam is a foot and counting at hour 63. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 NAM is still good for you guys, but I'm getting concerned about an even farther south track. Rooting for ya down there. south track? no way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Now we wait to see what the ULL does... hr 66 its down near NO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 that's one he!! of a snow storm on the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Now we wait to see what the ULL does... hr 66 its down near NO if the NAM is right about Part 1, I really don't care about Part 2...just gimme Part 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Heh, .7-.9 through 8am and continuing. Great fookin run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Not sure what the mini panic is about....NAM is fine at 54...probably where we want it Not to mention, we've been through this drill before, as in less than two weeks ago. Meanwhile the ECMWF has been fairly rock steady with this event of late, with the EC ensembles leading the way. I would be concerned with the dry air knocking on the door just to our north. That's what happens on the tail end of the PV with all that confluence. However correct me if I'm wrong, but even the folks north made out well in the last event (i.e. got "Fredericked/Westminstered"). It is a fine line latitudinally speaking, but in the end, again I think DC and points w-e will do fine. Areas toward the M/D line certainly colder but this time likely too dry (we'll see about that...see last event), while I would expect mixing issues in the max QPF axis farther south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Not to mention, we've been through this drill before, as in less than two weeks ago. Meanwhile the ECMWF has been fairly rock steady with this event of late, with the EC ensembles leading the way. I would be concerned with the dry air knocking on the door just to our north. That's what happens on the tail end of the PV with all that confluence. However correct me if I'm wrong, but even the folks north made out well in the last event (i.e. got "Fredericked/Westminstered"). It is a fine line latitudinally speaking, but in the end, again I think DC and points w-e will do fine. Areas toward the M/D line certainly colder but this time likely too dry (we'll see about that...see last event), while I would expect mixing issues in the max QPF axis farther south. It's tough to compare this to 3/1. Much better setup precip wise. The slug comes from the lower ms valley and the extreme cold dry Pac man wont stand much of a chance in the heaviest axis. This is a good storm setup any winter month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 NAM is taking a while with the ULL... but dang that run was... nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 NAM is taking a while with the ULL... but dang that run was... nice yup http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=075ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_075_precip_ptot.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=precip_ptot&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140315+00+UTC&imageSize=L&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Wow 84 hour sim radar. Probably a close call on rain/snow, but that part 2 is really getting interesting and surface temps are fine verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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