ers-wxman1 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 One of my neighbors shared the max Nws weather map and told his friends we are getting 14-17 inches LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Only people getting 5 inches are blue ridge. and how do you know that? Based on today's guidance, I think it makes sense to issue watches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 One of my neighbors shared the max Nws weather map and told his friends we are getting 14-17 inches This is exactly why clown maps and max snowfall maps should be permanently banned from all social media. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jnis Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Only people getting 5 inches are blue ridge. Hmmm...what about South Mt. or the Catoctins, or ridges west of the Blue Ridge? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 So while the QPF is fairly low, the 18z GFS shows it could start snowing Sunday evening...and not stop until Tuesday night thanks to the second wave now coming up over us. Looks like GFS is running about 3-4 days out from these systems before it sees them - GFS first started seeing the Sunday/Monday storm yesterday; and today it's just starting to see the Monday/Tuesday storm. P.S. - ers-wxman1, your forecast a couple days ago made Wired: http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2014/03/weather-service-predicts-something-everyone/ Lol. Yup that was our hydrologist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Only people getting 5 inches are blue ridge. Blue Ridge isn't a people. And you should probably post less and read more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 The Dulles graph has all my favorite colorsI didn't get a chance to see the 12Z EC ENS output, but I saw form the 00Z distribution that at least 60% of the EC members were in the 3-8" range, with 5" being the mode. About 80-90% of all members (around 40-45 out of the 50 00Z members) had at least 2" for DCA. That's incorporating a strict 10-1 ratio.I don't know about you folks, but I'm feeling a bit uneasy about this event forecast-wise. Maybe it's because we could have QPF and dendritic snow growth issues, especially if we end up having more of a MB setup with one low giving way to a newly developing coastal low, which could shut off the WAA precip (or at least the intensity) sooner than later within our CAD/low level ridge in between the surface troughs. At the very least, confluence with the PV axis pressing south will once again supply us with the needed cold air, but at the same time the "sweet spot" latitudinally speaking will be rather narrow -- unless we get better phasing and a CCB/comma head/deepening trowal that's able to pivot up here rather than remain suppressed and shallow (which the EC does show, and thus explains the higher snow totals per the EC with round 2 with the comma head between 12-18Z). The good news is March 6th last year is not an analog, and perhaps not even the last event earlier this month because the surface front is through us during the day on Sun, and we'd already be cold advecting (lowering dewpoints) at the surface by the time we get measurable pcpn moving in later that evening. So, one would expect we're not wasting as much QPF in rain compared to 2 weeks prior. If it ends up being more like March 25 of last year, that would be okay with me. I got a little over 3" in that one. Would obviously much prefer something more in line with 4-6", but at least for now I'd be happy with a 2-4"/3-6" forecast for us east of I95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 NWS sterling said that they might issue watches tonight. Smart move by them, or what? It was more for the I-81 corridor and W MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Obviously the NAM weenied out but I had to post the Bufkit for MRB. It really is ridiculous for mid March 1.39 ALL SNOW: 140316/2200Z 52 06009KT 29.7F SNOW 15:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.027 15:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.03 100| 0| 0140316/2300Z 53 05010KT 28.7F SNOW 15:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.050 15:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.08 100| 0| 0140317/0000Z 54 05011KT 27.4F SNOW 16:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.082 16:1| 2.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.16 100| 0| 0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---140317/0100Z 55 05012KT 26.3F SNOW 15:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.080 15:1| 3.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.24 100| 0| 0140317/0200Z 56 05013KT 25.6F SNOW 13:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.086 15:1| 4.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.33 100| 0| 0140317/0300Z 57 04011KT 25.1F SNOW 11:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.120 14:1| 6.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.45 100| 0| 0140317/0400Z 58 05010KT 24.5F SNOW 7:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.151 12:1| 7.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.60 100| 0| 0140317/0500Z 59 05011KT 24.0F SNOW 10:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.128 12:1| 8.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.72 100| 0| 0140317/0600Z 60 05013KT 22.9F SNOW 11:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.093 12:1| 9.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.82 100| 0| 0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---140317/0700Z 61 04014KT 21.8F SNOW 9:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.104 11:1| 10.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.92 100| 0| 0140317/0800Z 62 04013KT 20.7F SNOW 8:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.093 11:1| 11.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.01 100| 0| 0140317/0900Z 63 04012KT 19.8F SNOW 11:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.092 11:1| 12.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.11 100| 0| 0140317/1000Z 64 03011KT 19.3F SNOW 9:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.093 11:1| 13.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.20 100| 0| 0140317/1100Z 65 04011KT 18.8F SNOW 7:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.077 11:1| 13.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.28 100| 0| 0140317/1200Z 66 03010KT 18.6F SNOW 9:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.048 11:1| 14.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.32 100| 0| 0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---140317/1300Z 67 03011KT 19.1F SNOW 11:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.028 11:1| 14.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.35 100| 0| 0140317/1400Z 68 04011KT 19.8F SNOW 8:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.016 11:1| 14.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.37 100| 0| 0140317/1500Z 69 05011KT 21.3F SNOW 10:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007 11:1| 14.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.38 100| 0| 0140317/1600Z 70 04011KT 22.4F SNOW 10:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004 11:1| 14.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.38 100| 0| 0140317/1700Z 71 04011KT 23.4F SNOW 10:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004 11:1| 14.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.38 100| 0| 0140317/1800Z 72 04011KT 24.3F SNOW 15:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004 11:1| 14.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.39 100| 0| 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 This has been a great day of guidance. The the crosshairs of the front running stuff and now hints of second wave. Tomorrow will begin the how much discussions and no longer worrying about if. Today was awesome outside. I like late season 60 with impending subfreezing snow. Life is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 This has been a great day of guidance. The the crosshairs of the front running stuff and now hints of second wave. Tomorrow will begin the how much discussions and no longer worrying about if. Today was awesome outside. I like late season 60 with impending subfreezing snow. Life is good. yep, it's nice to feel like we live in NE every once and a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 GEFS is improved. Some ensemble members beggining to track the ULL further NW. Plume for Baltimore: Less sleet too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 21z SREFs out... Compared to 15z SREFs, the 21z SREFs at 850s are slightly colder... 2mT a smidge colder as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 21z SREFs out... Compared to 15z SREFs, the 21z SREFs at 850s are slightly colder... 2mT a smidge colder as well Looks like ~0.5" falls in six hours on the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Looks like ~0.5" falls in six hours on the mean. That is 0.5" of precip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 That is 0.5" of precip? Yeah, QPF. 6-hour precip map below: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Looks like ~0.5" falls in six hours on the mean. Well there is two of those 0.5 markers that show up on the 6 hr precip near DCA.. one shows up at hr 57 (06z MON aka 2am MON) and hr 60 (09z MON aka 5am MON) that you just posted above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 15, 2014 Author Share Posted March 15, 2014 That fresh 1041 High on the NAM is one of the most beautiful things I've seen this winter...coming in right on time in tandem almost....and somehow the NAM will probably find a way to still run right through it and give us rain/sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 The 36 panel is holding the SW back longer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 The 36 panel is holding the SW back longer Is that good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Is that good? I would believe so... should push it more south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 I would believe so... should push it more south Yeah, looks more south already, this run could put DC in the bullseye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 I would believe so... should push it more south going to be a fine line between decent and dry so too far south can be a problem too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 This is exactly why clown maps and max snowfall maps should be permanently banned from all social media. or slightly tweaked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 15, 2014 Author Share Posted March 15, 2014 Well 8pm sounding supports snow...no precip yet though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 5H energy going awfully far south this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 going to be a fine line between decent and dry so too far south can be a problem too Yeah this is way south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 I think NAM nudged too far south Anyway... DCA gets below freezing just after 8pm... whatever falls after that is snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Well 8pm sounding supports snow...no precip yet though colder at that time than 18z it's slower, further south, or both vs. 18Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 15, 2014 Author Share Posted March 15, 2014 Not sure what the mini panic is about....NAM is fine at 54...probably where we want it. It was ridiculously far north before anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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