Ian Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Great trend on EURO, not totally there yet, but obviously it took a step to the light....it almost tries to bring all the energy out. not totally there yet? you're silly unrealistic.. get a grip. it's a good run as is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 not totally there yet? you're silly unrealistic.. get a grip. it's a good run as is. Yea 4-6" around here on March 17th is pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Any troughing east of Hawaii showing up?---that can be a sign that more energy would come out of the southwest. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Yea 4-6" around here on March 17th is pretty good. perhaps he wants it more north since he lives way north of us but he seems to be fishing for a hecs and only a hecs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 not totally there yet? you're silly unrealistic.. get a grip. it's a good run as is. When I say "not there yet" I mean not GGEM/GFS-ish...I agree, its a good run, but 3-6" in late March doesn't really get my weenie juices flowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Models are looking great and all, but do we have any teleconnection supporting a winter storm signal? What a crazy anomaly, yet awesome winter! www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/reforecast2/teleconn/4panel.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 perhaps he wants it more north since he lives way north of us but he seems to be fishing for a hecs and only a hecs. He always wants only an Hecs. I don't blame him so do i, but it is very unrealistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Based on snowfall amounts, I feel that the 12z EURO is more "believable" than the GFS or GGEM. 4-6" is great in January, but that in mid-March is a MECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Based on snowfall amounts, I feel that the 12z EURO is more "believable" than the GFS or GGEM. 4-6" is great in January, but that in mid-March is a MECS. No it's not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 No it's not. Agreed.... it's completely subjective but I'd rather keep the criteria consistent. I think the most important point is that a significant snow event is pretty rare in mid-March, especially for the coastal plain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 No it's not. That wasn't the point. The point is it's a lot of snow for mid-March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 perhaps he wants it more north since he lives way north of us but he seems to be fishing for a hecs and only a hecs. i thought in March...you searched for a HECS or spring and nothing in the middle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Haven't really followed this much, but from the sounds of things here, this seems like a model headache. What's causing the models to struggle so much with it? The models are not struggling, they are doing their job offering excellent guidance on potential solutions. They are converging on an idea of a storm 4 days away on one side of the CONUS when many of the key components don't yet even exist on the other side of the CONUS. This is especially impressive given the antecedent conditions where small changes upstream mean big changes in our neck of the woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Models are looking great and all, but do we have any teleconnection supporting a winter storm signal? What a crazy anomaly, yet awesome winter! www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/reforecast2/teleconn/4panel.png Pna, EPO, mjo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welbane Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Based on snowfall amounts, I feel that the 12z EURO is more "believable" than the GFS or GGEM. 4-6" is great in January, but that in mid-March is a MECS. GFS also shows 4-6", right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Pna, EPO, mjo I don't know much about the mjo, but the first two are near neutral for the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 The models are not struggling, they are doing their job offering excellent guidance on potential solutions. They are converging on an idea of a storm 4 days away on one side of the CONUS when many of the key components don't yet even exist on the other side of the CONUS. This is especially impressive given the antecedent conditions where small changes upstream mean big changes in our neck of the woods. Good post, hopefully the consistency can re-establish itself in the longer range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 12z GFS Cobb qpf output for Westminster: .78 all snow from 21z sun to 21z mon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schinz Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 12z GFS Cobb qpf output for Westminster: .78 all snow from 21z sun to 21z mon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Based on snowfall amounts, I feel that the 12z EURO is more "believable" than the GFS or GGEM. 4-6" is great in January, but that in mid-March is a MECS. Please explain WHY you find it more believable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 The models are not struggling, they are doing their job offering excellent guidance on potential solutions. They are converging on an idea of a storm 4 days away on one side of the CONUS when many of the key components don't yet even exist on the other side of the CONUS. This is especially impressive given the antecedent conditions where small changes upstream mean big changes in our neck of the woods. LOL, ok. I'll choose my words more carefully next time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 LOL, ok. I'll choose my words more carefully next time. I think the real mets--- who understand this situation best--- are the most qualified to comment on how things are going. Too many people here have unrealistic expectations from the models, and have a habit of scapegoating them when they're frustrated about not getting the snow they wanted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 15z SREF mean is nice and wet for DC, but it's also warm. 850 temps still above 0 at 6z Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Please explain WHY you find it more believable. No reason, just my opinion. Based on what I know about our area, and the time of year, 4-6" is more believable than 10"+. Who knew a simple opinion would get so much flak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 LOL, ok. I'll choose my words more carefully next time. you got 9400+ posts -- if you still haven't figured why it is difficult to predict highly non-linear dynamical processes in the 3+ day range i'm not sure there is thing anyone of us could say to clear that up -- and it's not entirely to single you out -- but there seems to be a large gap in expectations with respect to what NWP can offer among hobbyists Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 15z SREF mean is nice and wet for DC, but it's also warm. 850 temps still above 0 at 6z Monday. Not by very much, its right near IAD. Looking at the map also seems to show that there is a lot of spread in the individual members.... and I think its been discussed on here before, but don't the SREFs have a slight warm bias at the extended (60-87 hr) range? Also, it would seem the HP is a bit too far west for our liking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 LWX in their afternoon HWO mentions potential for accumulating snows near and west of the I-95 corridor and that both the morning and evening commutes may be impacted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 No reason, just my opinion. Based on what I know about our area, and the time of year, 4-6" is more believable than 10"+. Who knew a simple opinion would get so much flak. Just a little correction, not trying to give you more flak as I am not qualified to do so, but I believe that the Euro shows more like 4-6" as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Not by very much, its right near IAD. Looking at the map also seems to show that there is a lot of spread in the individual members.... and I think its been discussed on here before, but don't the SREFs have a slight warm bias at the extended (60-87 hr) range? Also, it would seem the HP is a bit too far west for our liking Yes, they do. If you were to compare the temp profile at the 60+ hour range of the early March storm, the SREFs had the 2m line up in northern PA/southern NY even by daybreak when we were already in the 20s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 12z GFS Cobb qpf output for Westminster: .78 all snow from 21z sun to 21z mon For DCA it has a total of 0.5" of snow and IAD 2.5". The snow ratios are terrible. 4/1 and finishing at 8/1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.