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Saint Patrick's Day Snow Event


stormtracker

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Great trend on EURO, not totally there yet, but obviously it took a step to the light....it almost tries to bring all the energy out. 

not totally there yet? you're silly unrealistic.. get a grip. it's a good run as is. 

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Yea 4-6" around here on March 17th is pretty good.

perhaps he wants it more north since he lives way north of us but he seems to be fishing for a hecs and only a hecs. 

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Haven't really followed this much, but from the sounds of things here, this seems like a model headache.  What's causing the models to struggle so much with it?

 

The models are not struggling, they are doing their job offering excellent guidance on potential solutions.  They are converging on an idea of a storm 4 days away on one side of the CONUS when many of the key components don't yet even exist on the other side of the CONUS.  This is especially impressive given the antecedent conditions where small changes upstream mean big changes in our neck of the woods.

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The models are not struggling, they are doing their job offering excellent guidance on potential solutions.  They are converging on an idea of a storm 4 days away on one side of the CONUS when many of the key components don't yet even exist on the other side of the CONUS.  This is especially impressive given the antecedent conditions where small changes upstream mean big changes in our neck of the woods.

Good post, hopefully the consistency can re-establish itself in the longer range.

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The models are not struggling, they are doing their job offering excellent guidance on potential solutions.  They are converging on an idea of a storm 4 days away on one side of the CONUS when many of the key components don't yet even exist on the other side of the CONUS.  This is especially impressive given the antecedent conditions where small changes upstream mean big changes in our neck of the woods.

LOL, ok.  I'll choose my words more carefully next time.

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LOL, ok.  I'll choose my words more carefully next time.

 

I think the real mets--- who understand this situation best--- are the most qualified to comment on how things are going. Too many people here have unrealistic expectations from the models, and have a habit of scapegoating them when they're frustrated about not getting the snow they wanted.

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LOL, ok.  I'll choose my words more carefully next time.

 

you got 9400+ posts -- if you still haven't figured why it is difficult to predict highly non-linear dynamical processes in the 3+ day range i'm not sure there is thing anyone of us could say to clear that up -- and it's not entirely to single you out -- but there seems to be a large gap in expectations with respect to what NWP can offer among hobbyists

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15z SREF mean is nice and wet for DC, but it's also warm.   850 temps still above 0 at 6z Monday.

 

Not by very much, its right near IAD.  Looking at the map also seems to show that there is a lot of spread in the individual members.... and I think its been discussed on here before, but don't the SREFs have a slight warm bias at the extended (60-87 hr) range?

 

Also, it would seem the HP is a bit too far west for our liking

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No reason, just my opinion. Based on what I know about our area, and the time of year, 4-6" is more believable than 10"+.

 

Who knew a simple opinion would get so much flak.

Just a little correction, not trying to give you more flak as I am not qualified to do so, but I believe that the Euro shows more like 4-6" as well.

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Not by very much, its right near IAD.  Looking at the map also seems to show that there is a lot of spread in the individual members.... and I think its been discussed on here before, but don't the SREFs have a slight warm bias at the extended (60-87 hr) range?

 

Also, it would seem the HP is a bit too far west for our liking

 

Yes, they do.  If you were to compare the temp profile at the 60+ hour range of the early March storm, the SREFs had the 2m line up in northern PA/southern NY even by daybreak when we were already in the 20s.   

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