ers-wxman1 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 NAM and SREF bufkit a have definitely cooled off on the latest runs but even with 850 temps plummeting overnight the NAM especially holds into quite a warm nose and shows moderate to heavy sleet especially IAD and east. Doesn't make a whole lot of sense given cold high to the north and elongated low tracking south. I feel the GFS and EURO have a better handle on the BL at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 If you guys have questions on the probabilistic stuff fire away. I'm the winter project team lead :-) I would like to see the each of the three snow probability map scenarios labeled better for which one is based off the NWS forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 GFS overall shows bullseye DC and west. Just less total precip than previous models. GFS is perfect for DC. Easily 2-4 falling at night, maybe even a bit more. Wish I could lock this up now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 The gfs is way north with the second low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 14, 2014 Author Share Posted March 14, 2014 The gfs is way north with the second low. Yes, we do get some precip from it. KInda interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I would like to see the each of the three snow probability map scenarios labeled better for which one is based off the NWS forecast. All of them are based off the NWS forecast. Our guidance comes from WPC then is edited by our forecasters before being sent to the web. They are official NWS-LWX products. In fact we just sent the current batch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Yes, we do get some precip from it. KInda interesting .1 -.2 qpf it looks like... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 All of them are based off the NWS forecast. Our guidance comes from WPC then is edited by our forecasters before being sent to the web. They are official NWS-LWX products. In fact we just sent the current batch. I meant I think it would be a good idea to emphasize the middle map better. I think the products overall are a great tool to use. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 .1 -.2 qpf it looks like... DCA-.28" BWI-.26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 The NAM and GFS are starting to trend northwest with part 2 of this storm. Something to keep an eye on with future runs. All in all there was definite improvement on the front end today for accumulating snow. Most of the models are sniffing out the cad a bit better now. I hope in the end Bob gets bowled over with round 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Isn't it unusual for our area to be impacted in such a way with two or three waves of precip over a 24-30 hour period. Don't these impulses generally phase into one storm eventually? And maybe that is the problems the various models are having with this complex system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Mount Holly's first stab at accums. Decent given current guidance I guess, although today's runs aren't as wet overall, and to get 6 inches its going to take perfect timing and rates. If it comes in 2 waves, might be difficult to see those amounts realized as melting would occur during the day in the lull. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
potvn_sx Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 The NAM and GFS are starting to trend northwest with part 2 of this storm. Something to keep an eye on with future runs. I would love to see this trend continue tonight. Is there anything specific that needs to happen with part 1 to continue this trend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I meant I think it would be a good idea to emphasize the middle map better. I think the products overall are a great tool to use. Thanks I appreciate that. The middle map- Most Likely gets issued 36 hours out from onset of snow while the max/min go out for planning purposes at 72 hours. Changes may come down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 18Z RGEM at 54 hrs http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=18&mod=gemreg&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=18&mod2=gemreg&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=000&fixhh=1&hh=054 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 18Z RGEM at 54 hrs http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=18&mod=gemreg&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=18&mod2=gemreg&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=000&fixhh=1&hh=054 Even further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Even further south. not from itself because this is the first time it's in range, but probably closer to the GGEM, but that's no surprise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 not from itself because this is the first time it's in range, but probably closer to the GGEM, but that's no surprise 12z 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Euro ens mean panels look pretty solid. Good support for a second period of precip. We're getting inside of the useful range though. Control looks like the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 14, 2014 Author Share Posted March 14, 2014 Yeah, that low is definitely 7 miles south of 12z. Good find. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Euro ens mean panels look pretty solid. Good support for a second period of precip. We're getting inside of the useful range though. Control looks like the op. The Dulles graph has all my favorite colors Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 So while the QPF is fairly low, the 18z GFS shows it could start snowing Sunday evening...and not stop until Tuesday night thanks to the second wave now coming up over us. Looks like GFS is running about 3-4 days out from these systems before it sees them - GFS first started seeing the Sunday/Monday storm yesterday; and today it's just starting to see the Monday/Tuesday storm. P.S. - ers-wxman1, your forecast a couple days ago made Wired: http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2014/03/weather-service-predicts-something-everyone/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Yeah, that low is definitely 7 miles south of 12z. Good find. It's also way weaker. Mdstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Yeah, that low is definitely 7 miles south of 12z. Good find. Looks 8-9 miles south to me. Fringe job incoming..time to close the thread. Anyway, looking at the ECM suite, there is a growing tendency to track the ULL farther west initially. I'm not saying we'll get hit, but I'd be surprised if it rolls off the SC coast and whiffs RIC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 The RGEM has a more positively tilted trough, it def. would be farther south than the NAM if extrapolated, but that is probably good news for you guys anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 12z 18z Just looks slower to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Just looks slower to me that's what I was gong to say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 NWS sterling said that they might issue watches tonight. Smart move by them, or what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 NWS sterling said that they might issue watches tonight. Smart move by them, or what? If the 0z runs hold, probably not a bad move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 NWS sterling said that they might issue watches tonight. Smart move by them, or what? Only people getting 5 inches are blue ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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