Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Think I'll just go with the HPC Just saw their update after reading what you said. Yeah, they've got us in the high prob. category for 4"+, moderate for 8"+, and...dare I say...low for 12"+. Definitely more bullish than the earlier morning probabilities. Also the experimental probabilistic/percentile forecasts have upped the 50th percentile amount to the 6-8" range, with over 8" heading toward the Blue Ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 FYI...The NAM is obviously wrong...hopefully everyone realizes it is completely out to lunch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 FYI...The NAM is obviously wrong...hopefully everyone realizes it is completely out to lunch LOL!! Haven't seen past 60-h yet. What, is it giving DC a foot or something outrageous?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 FYI...The NAM is obviously wrong...hopefully everyone realizes it is completely out to lunch that offically gives me 400 inches of modeled snow this year from all the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 that offically gives me 400 inches of modeled snow this year from all the models Does that beat 2009-10? Of course that year, we actually got most of the modeled snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Well also on the totally wrong 18z NAM... looks like we would get hit/scraped with the ULL at 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Why is it BS? Just cause its the NAM? its an outlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 LOL!! Haven't seen past 60-h yet. What, is it giving DC a foot or something outrageous?? Massive sleetstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 84 hours is about to give us another 6-10 before the cold air lifts. Great run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Just saw their update after reading what you said. Yeah, they've got us in the high prob. category for 4"+, moderate for 8"+, and...dare I say...low for 12"+. Definitely more bullish than the earlier morning probabilities. Also the experimental probabilistic/percentile forecasts have upped the 50th percentile amount to the 6-8" range, with over 8" heading toward the Blue Ridge. People who work at HPC probably know more than most. Not going out on a limb when you trust them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Well also on the totally wrong 18z NAM... looks like we would get hit/scraped with the ULL at 84 Finally, I can see the full run! And yes, I see what you're talking about, it's got a secondary surface low with that and if you (gasp!) extrapolate (argh!) the NAM looks like it would just scrape us. And the silly NAM has us in the upper 20s or something through Monday. A chill for the green beer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpfhsd Afternoon Snow Discussion ..MIDDLE MS VALLEY/OH VALLEY/CENTRALAPPALACHIANS/MID-ATLANTIC/SRN NEW YORK/SRN NEW ENGLAND...THE MODELS/ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE MOVING OUTOF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS THE MS VALLEY SAT NIGHT-SUN...WITHA CLOSED 700 MB LOW POSSIBLY FORMING NEAR THE AR/MO BORDER. THE12Z NAM SHOWED A DEEPER 700 MB LOW THAN THE REMAININGMODELS/ENSEMBLE MEANS...RESULTING IN HEAVIER QPF AND RESULTANTSNOW AMOUNTS IN SOUTHERN MO ACROSS TO SOUTHERN IL/IN/OH. THE06Z-12Z GFS AND 00-12Z ECMWF/12Z UKMET SHOW LESS SNOW POTENTIAL INTHE OH VALLEY NORTH OF THE OH RIVER THAN THE 12Z NAM/09Z SREFMEAN. THE LOW TRACKS AND THEIR RESPECTIVE LIQUID EQUIVALENTS ANDPRECIP-TYPES OF THE 12-00Z ECMWF/12Z UKMET/12Z GFS/12Z GEFS MEANWERE GIVEN THE MOST WEIGHT.THE DIRECT MODEL OUTPUT FROM THE GFS/ECMWF SUPPORT 4 TO EVEN 8INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS PART OF SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL MISSOURI. ON DAY 3 IN THE MID ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST NY/SRN NEW ENGLAND...MODELSAPPEAR TO BE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH HIGHER SNOW TOTALSDEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WHERE 6 TO 12 INCHESIS EXPECTED. WHERE THE HEAVY SNOW OCCURS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANSARE LESS CLEAR DUE TO THE UNCERTAIN PHASING OF THENORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAMS AND SUBSEQUENT SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS. A BAND OF 6-10 INCHES IS EXPECTED IN THE MID ATLANTIC EAST OF THEMOUNTAINS WITH MODEL RUN TO RUN DIFFERENCES SHOWING NORTH-SOUTHOSCILLATIONS ON THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW. THIS IS REFLECTED IN ASIGNIFICANT DROP IN 12Z GEFS MEAN QPF ACROSS NORTHERN PA/NORTHERNNJ/NYC/LONG ISLAND/SRN NEW ENGLAND. THE SOUTH TREND ON THE 12ZGEFS/GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN GLOBAL LEADS TO AN INCREASED THREAT OFSNOW IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VA...AND EVEN FREEZING RAIN INSOUTHWEST VA. THE 09Z SREF MEAN AND 12Z NAM EXTEND HIGHERQPF/RESULTANT HEAVY SNOW AMOUNTS FURTHER NORTH INTO NORTHERNPA/NJ/NY/SRN NEW ENGLAND...SO ONE CAMP OR THE OTHER WILLEVENTUALLY MAKE SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS. THE 15Z SREF HAS ALREADYMADE A MAJOR REDUCTION IN QPF AND RESULTANT SNOW TOTALS INSOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND/SOUTHERN NY/NORTHERN PA FROM ITS 09Z RUN.PETERSEN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 People who work at HPC probably know more than most. Not going out on a limb when you trust them. Oh, I know that well...just re-iterating what they were showing, and it's pretty impressive looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I've been following the Nam and the clown maps all season long...... pretty much cut whatever amounts it reads,in half, and that's somewhat of a better read on what will actually happen. Just one observation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 LOL, the NAM is wrong (with no other rationale than it sucks). I guess the crystal balls are money? Magic eight balls? Why even look at models if you already know what's gonna happen? To be fair, there is a legitimate rationale to doubt the NAM, it doesn't match any other guidance, and it is out of its best range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 When the NAM shows 20" in Pittsburgh in late march, you know its wrong. I hope we can find a medium between south and north, because the bullseye needs to be right over nova! Also, if you think about it, the NAM wasn't right with the early March storm because the heaviest snow wasn't south of dc, it was in eastern loudoun and western fairfax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 To be fair, there is a legitimate rationale to doubt the NAM, it doesn't match any other guidance, and it is out of its best range. I am not going to comment on the accuracy of the NAM, as I have not been keeping track. However, the NAM will be in its ideal range by tonight (48 hrs), assuming the event starts Sunday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Per the 18z 4km NAM, precip doesn't get in here till around dinner time... 6pm or so on Sunday If you wish to accept the 2mT, which we don't, DCA is ~32 by 11pm... I-81 corridor in the 20s... precip type claims its snow in N VA/DC/MD at 11pm Sun night... EZF sleety.. states prob of frozen precip is 100% at 11pm for DCA And tries for 3"+ snow for BWI to DCA to EZFish and to the N and W of that by 2am Monday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Like the last one, for weenies only Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Like the last one, for weenies only Serious question: What was it that LWX saw that made them want to just about double potential accumulations? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Serious question: What was it that LWX saw that made them want to just about double potential accumulations?It's just an experimental from them. Computer generated that shows what 90th percentile would be. Not an actual forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 It's just an experimental from them. Computer generated that shows what 90th percentile would be. Not an actual forecast I understand that. But what made them up the potential? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL97 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I understand that. But what made them up the potential? I believe it's generated off the SREFs, which do support this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 its an outlier The problem is that so far for this storm, it seems that every model has been the outlier at one time or another. It's like the models are playing "hot potato". Which model will be left holding the outlier potato? MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Serious question: What was it that LWX saw that made them want to just about double potential accumulations? This is the MAX possible... 95th percentile! Worst case scenario. Based off 32 member ensemble members. The MIN and the MAX make up the goal post of possible scenarios. Higher the goal posts equals the more uncertainty! There are members giving those amounts as well as the lower amounts within the min scenario. Most Likely scenario comes out within 36 hours of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 This is the MAX possible... 95th percentile! Worst case scenario. Based off 32 member ensemble members. The MIN and the MAX make up the goal post of possible scenarios. Higher the goal posts equals the more uncertainty! There are members giving those amounts as well as the lower amounts within the min scenario. Most Likely scenario comes out within 36 hours of the event. I said potential, I meant to say max. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 18z GFS has snow just getting in to the area ~8pm Sunday... sounding supports snow... don't know what MOS says Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I said potential, I meant to say max. Thanks! If you guys have questions on the probabilistic stuff fire away. I'm the winter project team lead :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 GFS looks great so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 GFS overall shows bullseye DC and west. Just less total precip than previous models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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