Bob Chill Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 The gradient is striking this run. 0.4 Mason Dixon to 1.0 southern Prince William/Southern Fairfax. DCA and IAD are 0.8. (total qpf) Yea, and except for the uber cold press on the 1st, almost all similar systems are either broader or further north with the heaviest axis. I really see nothing to complain about. I've mentioned several times that my thoughts were 2-4/3-6 kind of deal with some upside. Haven't really seen much to change my mind. If anything, temps bumped into our favor today. We're less than 60 hours from onset too. Fun weekend ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Beautiful Bob, thanks. You guys have taken over for Philly as the "spot" to end the winter. El Nino must be approaching! Your analysis this year has been #epic, HM. Appreciate it so much. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 we get about 0.25" between 8am and 4pm.....verbatim the euro is ludicrously cold...25 degrees for DC in the middle of the afternoon....we'll have to see about that,.,.lol Haven't most of the models (- the NAM) been advertising below freezing temps all day Monday? Granted they are raw temps but the signal is for a pretty cold mid March day. Maybe not "cold enough" but kinda cool (as in neat) for a cold day with snow falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 It's around 6z, too, that the 850mb convergence zone passes south through the area with wind minimum at 700mb too. Also, there's a brief but double jet structure for divergence! Not bad...and it's overnight with a good high to the north. So...okay then. lol Edit...scratch that about the divergence. That happens much earlier. That lines most things up about as well as we could hope for, I believe. If someone were to say "how can we get snow to best accumulate decently in mid-March...?", this might be the response. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Your analysis this year has been #epic, HM. Appreciate it so much. Thanks. Hey, no problem...thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Even if those temps verify, which I don't think will happen, no way that would accumulate in the urban or suburban areas. depends how heavy...not if it falls uniformly...but a moderate/heavy burst would accumulate even at 32.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 depends how heavy...not if it falls uniformly...but a moderate/heavy burst would accumulate even at 32.. Yeah, if it falls in 2-3 hours. If it falls in 4 or 5 hours, mostly snowTV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 That lines most things up about as well as we could hope for, I believe. If someone were to say "how can we get snow to best accumulate decently in mid-March...?", this might be the response. Yeah, this is a good run for sure when making the "spring checklist" for snow. The divergence happens a bit earlier with the 300 jet. If there's enough WAA before 6z, heavy bands could get going even sooner, despite the QPF. With the "splitting energy" in the Plains, maybe we can hope for a slight boost in intensity of the one coming at us to increase advection. But I must admit, the flow ahead of it is very hostile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Yeah, if it falls in 2-3 hours. If it falls in 4 or 5 hours, mostly snowTV. Which wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing, if there's snow on the ground from Sunday night...to keep things photogenic, so to speak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Yeah, if it falls in 2-3 hours. If it falls in 4 or 5 hours, mostly snowTV. I think the burbs might still accumulate with -SN...maybe not on roads, but grass and table tops etc...I dont think sun angle is as adverse as we think it is...i think the bigger issue is that we dont usually get snow this late in the season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Yeah, if it falls in 2-3 hours. If it falls in 4 or 5 hours, mostly snowTV. You are making good points to keep in mind but there is a window here for heavier banding within that general "QPF shield" too. I agree with you overall once that is over with on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Seasonal trends guys. Has anything trended north this winter? Nope... Just South 1/21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Seasonal trends guys. Has anything trended north this winter? Nope... Just South I believe storms earlier in the season trended north (January). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Precip field larger and more north not the LOW 1/21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 You are making good points to keep in mind but there is a window here for heavier banding within that general "QPF shield" too. I agree with you overall once that is over with on Monday. yeah..we're talking about daytime on Monday..overnight is no problem...light to moderate Snow accumulated fine on 4/7/07 in the city...not on teh streets or sidewalks but everywhere else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Seasonal trends guys. Has anything trended north this winter? Nope... Just South Seasonal trends are basically myths. Each situation that presents itself may produce an outcome where NWP trend in a certain direction within the final runs. On 3/3, that situation DID present iself. A trend north wasn't happening and this forum was onto that even before the Friday runs, when models were inland runners. This one is not quite set in stone yet to go either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Precip field larger and more north not the LOW 1/21 not to belabor this but you're wrong..it moved north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I think the burbs might still accumulate with -SN...maybe not on roads, but grass and table tops etc...I dont think sun angle is as adverse as we think it is...i think the bigger issue is that we dont usually get snow this late in the season Yes, the fact that we'd be getting accumulating snow this far into March (NCAA Selection Sunday, then St. Pats!) is noteworthy in itself. It's not like last March...the "Noquester" storm...where we were just desperate to get *something* to salvage that winter and it failed miserably. Though I'd hate this to "fail", at least it's in the bonus category at this point, not the "this is all we got, it better work" category. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 You are making good points to keep in mind but there is a window here for heavier banding within that general "QPF shield" too. I agree with you overall once that is over with on Monday. Yeah, I'm speaking more about the ULL precip during daylight hours on Monday. I think accumulation during the night with the deform and/or WAA snow is definitely possible/probable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Yeah, I'm speaking more about the ULL precip during daylight hours on Monday. I think accumulation during the night with the deform and/or WAA snow is definitely possible/probable. In the short-range, if we can get this "break-away s/w" to trend a little stronger, anchoring the convergence over your area and increasing advection a little, maybe we can get some decent accumulations. A simple 850mb convergence zone moving swiftly SE would just keep that window too brief for anything significant. Some to pay attention to over next couple of days, assuming there isn't some ongoing trend to keep splitting more and more into Mexico. In that case...lol it's over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Yes, the fact that we'd be getting accumulating snow this far into March (NCAA Selection Sunday, then St. Pats!) is noteworthy in itself. It's not like last March...the "Noquester" storm...where we were just desperate to get *something* to salvage that winter and it failed miserably. Though I'd hate this to "fail", at least it's in the bonus category at this point, not the "this is all we got, it better work" category. This was good enough for 2" in the city during the day on 3/24/90...it didnt street stick but covered everything else...if you get good sticking snow and it is steady enough sun angle is irrelevant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I believe storms earlier in the season trended north (January). The one that just buried NNE trended north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Slightly off-topic, but given that some/many of the models are keeping it below freezing through Monday...what's the latest time DCA had a below freezing max temperature? Not just anywhere in the metro area, but the DCA location itself. I guess we should be talking midnight-to-midnight too, since that's when it's measured. If my memory serves correctly, it was below freezing right after the 1993 Superstorm, on March 15, even at DCA; not sure if there was another year after that more recently. I know it's a bit silly to take model temps verbatim right now, but it begged the curiosity question just because of the unusual time of year. (ETA: I know that in 2009, DCA had two straight days in March below freezing, right after that one event. But that was the very beginning of the month, I'm wondering about mid-March and beyond.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Its not like we should only look at past snowstorms for trends, if trends have any basis at all. Our last storm had several models which showed backend snow a few days before hand, then it shifted north and we got thunderstorms instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 The one that just buried NNE trended north. Completely forgot about that lol... Albany actually mixed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Its not like we should only look at past snowstorms for trends, if trends have any basis at all. Our last storm had several models which showed backend snow a few days before hand, then it shifted north and we got thunderstorms instead. And before that, if I recall correctly, it was hinting at a good snowstorm here with some whispered talk of "March 1993". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I think we have a pretty good idea what to expect at this lead. We have a window for snow sticking everywhere from 2am-8am +/-. Later in the day on monday will need to be heavier but even if it isn't it will look nice out the window. Probably the most important thing to keep an eye out for (stating the obvious) is how much juice comes in during the prime window. Maybe I'm too optimistic but I keep thinking it will be hot and heavy for a time during the prime window. I could see .75+ around the region by 8am monday. Maybe 1" for someone. There's downside to what was presented today but I don't talk about downside. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Slightly off-topic, but given that some/many of the models are keeping it below freezing through Monday...what's the latest time DCA had a below freezing max temperature? Not just anywhere in the metro area, but the DCA location itself. I guess we should be talking midnight-to-midnight too, since that's when it's measured. If my memory serves correctly, it was below freezing right after the 1993 Superstorm, on March 15, even at DCA; not sure if there was another year after that more recently. I know it's a bit silly to take model temps verbatim right now, but it begged the curiosity question just because of the unusual time of year. (ETA: I know that in 2009, DCA had two straight days in March below freezing, right after that one event. But that was the very beginning of the month, I'm wondering about mid-March and beyond.) http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/climate/dca/Dcamar.txt http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/climate/dca/Dcaapr.txt On 4/18 you had a 33/25 in 1875, apparently. But before that, 3/24 seems like the last date for a 32 as a high? I'm sure someone's got the goods that can post something more official. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/climate/dca/Dcamar.txt http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/climate/dca/Dcaapr.txt On 4/18 you had a 33/25 in 1875, apparently. But before that, 3/24 seems like the last date for a 32 as a high? I'm sure someone's got the goods that can post something more official. Going by the lowest max recorded (on LWX's climate page), it was 28 on 3/24 in 1906. Looks like the latest sub-freezing max. But that would not have been at the DCA site. Man, 1885 must have been great...there's a lot of record cold from that year, including that 33 for a max (record low max) on April 18 that you mentioned!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 And, just for fun, I saved this snowfall report from KCLE...from a storm they got on April 23, 2005! It broke KCLE's record for latest 1" amount...hell, it shattered it as they got over a foot! I remember my brother calling me saying "we've got a f**ing foot of snow on the ground and the sh*t is still coming down!!" I was hugely jealous. Oh, and they also easily broke their annual snowfall record that winter, 2004-05. PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT SNOWFALL REPORTS...STORM TOTALS SINCE SAT 4/23 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 201 PM EDT MON APR 25 2005 NEW STORM TIME/DATE COMMENTS LOCATION SNOW TOTAL OHIO ...ASHTABULA... HARTSGROVE 8.5 0700 AM 04/25 ...CUYAHOGA... CLE AIRPORT 12.4 0700 AM 04/25 GARFIELD HTS 14.5 0700 AM 04/25 CLEVELAND 7.0 0700 AM 04/25 SHAKER HTS 14.0 0700 AM 04/25 PEPPER PIKE 15.9 0700 AM 04/25 SOLON 19.8 0700 AM 04/25 N.ROYLTN/BRDVW HTS 25.3 0700 AM 04/25 ...GEAUGA... BURTON 9.5 0700 AM 04/25 CHARDON TWP 17.5 0700 AM 04/25 THOMPSON 5SW 21.8 0700 AM 04/25 RUSSEL TWP 12.0 0700 AM 04/25 HAMBDEN TWP. 21.1 0700 AM 04/25 ...HOLMES... FRYBURG 3.0 0700 AM 04/25 ...HURON... NORWALK 8.0 0700 AM 04/25 ...LAKE... KIRTLAND 9.0 0700 AM 04/25 ...LORAIN... LAGRANGE 4.0 0700 AM 04/25 N RIDGEVILLE 7.0 0700 AM 04/25 CAMDEN-TWP 8.4 0700 AM 04/25 OBERLIN 6.1 0700 AM 04/25 ...MEDINA... HINCKLEY 10.4 0700 AM 04/25 CHIPPEWA LK 3.0 0700 AM 04/25 MEDINA 5.0 0700 AM 04/25 BRUNSWICK 14.5 0700 AM 04/25 ...PORTAGE... KENT 7.2 0700 AM 04/25 AURORA 9.9 0700 AM 04/25 ...RICHLAND... BELLVILLE 3NE 7.4 0700 AM 04/25 ...SUMMIT... MUNROE FALLS 5.5 0700 AM 04/25 TWINSBURG 11.5 0700 AM 04/25 ...WAYNE... WOOSTER 1.5 0700 AM 04/25 KIDRON 1N 6.7 0700 AM 04/25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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