Interstate Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 GFS a good bit south and a bit slower than the NAM at 60 hour...theres your difference for temperatures but lets see how much QPF I was just going to say it is going to be south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Looks like we get most of the snow between hr 60 and 66..850 plenty cold...maybe someone can help me with surface Its snow pretty much everywhere in LWX CWA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 .5-.6 area wide by 12z mon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 14, 2014 Author Share Posted March 14, 2014 Plenty cold enough per GFS for 95% of the event (and this is going by soundings, not maps) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 .5-.6 area wide by 12z mon 2-4 sounds like good bet IMO based off this run... could be more as most of it falls after 8pm... winners are E WV and W VA EDIT: Looks like we are going to miss the second piece Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 .5-.6 area wide by 12z mon .5 to .6 is good in Jan but its meh in march. Not worth the trouble if we cant get an inch of qpf or more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 for DC, looks like a ~0.5 thump between about 6pm - 1am....probably flip around 9 or 10..maybe 0.25 as snow?..1-3"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TerpWeather Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Looks like we get most of the snow between hr 60 and 66..850 plenty cold...maybe someone can help me with surface Surface 32 line parallels 95 at 0z Mon Blasts south of CHO to LYH and near NHK - CGE by 3z ROA - RIC - SBY by 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 for DC, looks like a ~0.5 thump between about 6pm - 1am....probably flip around 9 or 10..maybe 0.25 as snow?..1-3"? DCA is a snow sounding at 8pm... I think we flip just before 8... thats why I went 2-4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 .5 to .6 is good in Jan but its meh in march. Not worth the trouble if we cant get an inch of qpf or more Yea, the run is good and bad. A little later and colder but weaker and less qpf. I think surface freezing @ 8am through the cities is suspect but that's before the better rates. 2-5" for most of us imo on the the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 14, 2014 Author Share Posted March 14, 2014 DCA is a snow sounding at 8pm... I think we flip just before 8... thats why I went 2-4 We flip before 8 per the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 DCA is a snow sounding at 8pm... I think we flip just before 8... thats why I went 2-4 Yoda...latest MOS is 40 degrees at 8pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Yoda...latest MOS is 40 degrees at 8pm I don't see MOS... so my bad then. I only see teh soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I don't see MOS... so my bad then. I only see teh soundings. I am guessing between evaporative cooling and air mas intrusion we can get into the 32-34 range by 9-10pm....forget about DCA...doesnt really matter if they are 36 if me and you are 33... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 BWI MON 00Z 17-MAR 0.1 -4.6 1022 64 98 0.02 554 537 MON 06Z 17-MAR -4.3 -5.7 1020 95 99 0.32 553 537 MON 12Z 17-MAR -6.6 -5.9 1018 94 98 0.10 550 536 MON 18Z 17-MAR -4.6 -6.1 1018 91 100 0.10 549 535 TUE 00Z 18-MAR -4.3 -5.4 1018 94 30 0.01 551 536 DCA MON 00Z 17-MAR -0.1 -4.2 1021 77 98 0.06 555 538 MON 06Z 17-MAR -3.3 -4.9 1020 96 99 0.38 553 538 MON 12Z 17-MAR -6.3 -5.4 1018 95 98 0.07 551 537 MON 18Z 17-MAR -4.4 -5.4 1018 92 99 0.09 550 536 TUE 00Z 18-MAR -4.1 -4.8 1018 96 33 0.02 552 537 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I am guessing between evaporative cooling and air mas intrusion we can get into the 32-34 range by 9-10pm....forget about DCA...doesnt really matter if they are 36 if me and you are 33... Understandable... 1-3/2-4 is pretty much the limit on the GFS for us anyway... so we should just take that and run I suppose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Understandable... 1-3/2-4 is pretty much the limit on the GFS for us anyway... so we should just take that and run I suppose mod snow and 33 should be fine to accumulate on grass and tables, deck etc...and maybe even side streets depending on rates and type of snow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 monday would be a nice wintry day for sure. Trailing precip drops another .10+. Prob won't be able to stick but would make a nice scene regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Yoda...latest MOS is 40 degrees at 8pm I like to split the difference between MOS and the raw numbers, as it tends to underestimate the more anomalous air masses. The cold blast two nights ago was the latest instance where temps ended up closer to the raw guidance. The airmass for this storm doesn't look too crazy, but it's still quite impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I need a shot of ggem Should be out in 30 mins or so. Also: careful, don't drive an automobile after taking a shot of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I'm out for now I'm pretty sure the front wave will end up wetter. you should enjoy the gfs temps and expect more precip. Remain vigilant and in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I like to split the difference between MOS and the raw numbers, as it tends to underestimate the more anomalous air masses. The cold blast last night was the latest instance where temps ended up closer to the raw guidance. The airmass for this storm doesn't look too crazy, but it's still quite impressive. yes...I don't think it will be 40 degrees at 8pm....unless we end up hitting 50 late afternoon...hopefully the combo of cooling and penetrating air mass will be enough to give accumulating snow to everyone mid evening to early morning...those that can get 6-8 hours of thump could do pretty well....I could also see this completely busting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I'm pretty sure the front wave will end up wetter. you should enjoy the gfs temps and expect more precip. Remain vigilant and in I'd like to see 0.7" by 3-4am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I'd like to see 0.7" by 3-4am There's quite a jackpot in wva. 1.25+/-. It's not really an upslope event either. I know we are a bit further from the 850/slp so there's that in play. But seeing such consistency with a pretty wet solution so close by leads me to believe the upside is real here and not fantasy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I'm with Ji. The hell with 2-4". I'd rather have sun and warm as that. I want a foot. I need the Canadian from a couple days ago to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I'm with Ji. The hell with 2-4". I'd rather have sun and warm as that. I want a foot. I need the Canadian from a couple days ago to verify. Here you go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I would take the RPM model and run: https://twitter.com/ttasselWBAL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 12z UKIE has 850s below zero at 60 hrs (00z MON) and on. DCA has received around 0.05 QPF by 8pm... so most of the QPF would fall after dark Here is the 72 hr QPF map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 yes...I don't think it will be 40 degrees at 8pm....unless we end up hitting 50 late afternoon...hopefully the combo of cooling and penetrating air mass will be enough to give accumulating snow to everyone mid evening to early morning...those that can get 6-8 hours of thump could do pretty well....I could also see this completely busting Thanks for the input. Yeah I'm usually bearish on snow in mid-March...almost anything can go wrong. That said, I felt the same way before 3/27/13, and ended up with 2.5" covering all surfaces including a busy street. This airmass is similar to that one..so I don't know what to think yet. I think if we can get this to fall at night we have a good shot at grass/deck accums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Symblized Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Not sure what your point is- so you're saying we should discard all records before the 1920's? That requires an additional argument, such as you believing climate change has taken away the possibility of it, the records aren't accurate, etc. In the 130 years since measurements began in 1883, there have been 6 years in which there have been a total of more than 2 inches of snow in the entire month of April in Baltimore, and no such years within the last 70 years. Based on data alone, not mere belief, therefore, "significant" snowfalls into the first half of April in Baltimore are extremely rare (once every 22 years on average at the most, and that's only if you first count anything over 2 inches as significant and if there were not multiple smaller snowfalls in a few of those years) and increasingly non-existent (0 times in the last 70 years). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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