Bob Chill Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 The NAM trended colder than previous 2 runs....Take that from it and run. We do this every storm. NAM past 48 is probably the last piece of guidance to hang a hat on. Luckily we only have to wait and hour before it's forgotten. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 14, 2014 Author Share Posted March 14, 2014 NAM tries with the second part associated with the ULL, but it looks like it won't make it north of C VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 The surface temp should not be a problem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 People care what the NAM shows?..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 That h5 on the NAM is disgusting. who cares?..it has no skill... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Honestly I wouldn't buy into the NAM one iota right now. Run to run consistency is out the window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 People care what the NAM shows?..lol I have an ull fetish. Nothing wrong with a little fiction now and then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Honestly I wouldn't buy into the NAM one iota right now. Run to run consistency is out the window. People like it because it is available, so they ignore the fact that it sucks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 who cares?..it has no skill... It did the best with the March 3rd storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Climo folks Climo, it's late March, odds of anything great were always slim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 This is starting to sound like the olden days of ne.weather and Joseph Bartlo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 14, 2014 Author Share Posted March 14, 2014 Enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Enough. Thank you! Apologies myself for getting off topic with my particular mini-rant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Thank you! Apologies myself for getting off topic with my particular mini-rant. me too...I know everyone here loves weather and snow and that is what is the most important anyway.....Don't pay much attention to the thermal profiles on the NAM right now (addressed to all)...it is still at a range when it lacks skill...and will often show goofy solutions.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 me too...I know everyone here loves weather and snow and that is what is the most important anyway.....Don't pay much attention to the thermal profiles on the NAM right now (addressed to all)...it is still at a range when it lacks skill...and will often show goofy solutions.. Yes, the NAM had some funky a** looking mid-level profiles along with the surface below freezing. Last night's 00Z would have given us ice/sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 It did the best with the March 3rd storm It depends on what you mean by "best". It did have the system further south than the other models, but over-did it and came back north at the last minute. Before becoming the southern-most solution, it started off as the northern-most solution. Not to say that it's a bad model -- like every other model, it has its strengths and weaknesses. While we're in a bit of a lull, I hope nobody minds if I ask a question. It seems like the NAM and GFS jump around a bit more than their foreign counterparts, even when they end up fairly accurate. Is this at least in part because they don't use 4D-VAR initialization? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Climo folks Climo, it's late March, odds of anything great were always slim.This is not a valid enough argument, as historically Baltimore has gotten significant snow events all the way into the first half of April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Symblized Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Why do we spend so much time on the NAM every event? Timing is the only possible reason: every six hours, and it's the first of each suite. On the flipside, we spend far too little time on the GGEM, which has a higher verification score this winter than anything but the EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HECS4DC14 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 With all the climo naysaying, I do think that it is reasonable to point out that the 2 biggest snow storms ever recorded in DC in March were both at the very end of the month (3/27/1891(12") and 3/28/42 (11.5")). Mind you, these storms took place around over 70 and over 120 years ago respectively, so climo has obviously changed quite a bit. However, am I wrong to point out that sun angle issues presumably have not? Didn't those historic mega-storms have to fight sun angle too? We know there is serious cold air to draw from. Whether this storm pans out seems to be about track, timing, phasing, dynamics, rates, trough evolution, etc. Climo has and will be overcame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 For comparison to the 12z NAM at 48 hrs, here is the 12z RGEM: At 48hrs, 12z NAM has a 997 L in extreme NE Arkansas... while 12z RGEM is in S Arkansas at 999mb. RGEM is also a bit faster with the movement of the high (as in its further east than the 12z NAM position) and is also stronger by 2-3mb. This, for now, would lead me to believe that we would be better on the 12z RGEM EDIT: 12z GFS just came out to 48. GFS has a 1001 L in W Arkansas and a 1037 H just northwest of Lake Superior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Why do we spend so much time on the NAM every event? Timing is the only possible reason: every six hours, and it's the first of each suite. On the flipside, we spend far too little time on the GGEM, which has a higher verification score this winter than anything but the EURO. The NAM isnt complete junk...its obviously better under 48 hrs but it can still be looked at..the problem is not enough people know or take into account its biases...This forum is all about expectations...some people raise them too high and some people have them overly low on every event..for me Im at over/under 2 inches in Baltimore for this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Symblized Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 This is not a valid enough argument, as historically Baltimore has gotten significant snow events all the way into the first half of April. That's incorrect. Baltimore has not received more than an inch of snowfall in the entire month of April since 1943-44, nor more than 2 inches since 1923-24. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/climate/bwi/bwisnow.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Per 12z GFS, the 00z MON (8pm SUN) sounding at DCA would SUGGEST that snow is falling as the entire column is below zero Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 GFS looks cold at least at 850 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 At panel 51... it is slower than 6z panel 57 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 GFS a good bit south and a bit slower than the NAM at 60 hour...theres your difference for temperatures but lets see how much QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 GFS a good bit south and a bit slower than the NAM at 60 hour...theres your difference for temperatures but lets see how much QPF Looks like 2-4 and then we wait to see if the ULL comes by for a visit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 GFS a good bit south and a bit slower than the NAM at 60 hour...theres your difference for temperatures but lets see how much QPF any delay in the precip helps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 That's incorrect. Baltimore has not received more than an inch of snowfall in the entire month of April since 1943-44, nor more than 2 inches since 1923-24. Not sure what your point is- so you're saying we should discard all records before the 1920's? That requires an additional argument, such as you believing climate change has taken away the possibility of it, the records aren't accurate, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Looks like we get most of the snow between hr 60 and 66..850 plenty cold...maybe someone can help me with surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.