Bob Chill Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 SREFs are a liquid assassin I can't think of a single up from the south storm at 3+ day leads this winter that didn't juice up on drier guidance during the shorter lead times. This includes rainers but everybody tries to forget those. I agree with your take on the gfs. It's not a good run for anyone really if we want a 3-6 to verify. But imho it looked to dry with the front running stuff. I think .75+ during the late aft/overnight is very realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 you're above freezing on the Srefs's untl around 0.75" liquid has fallen...March! more like .5" (and who says it can't snow when surface is >32?) and then >.5" after going below 32.....oh yes it can! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 That isn't what I am seeing. I see a storm that plows into a bootleg air mass with unimpressive liquid most of which falls by midnight...then some lull....the part 2 is -SN in the middle of the afternoon....the good returns will be coming in at 8-9pm and it will be like 35......GFS is a QPF eater...and it isn't much QPF to eat....first part is maybe 0.4" plowing into a 44 degree air mass that's the source of my pessimism -- lose a good deal of the front end to the initial airmass, then loss the BL on monday during the lower rates -- may not apply as much in western/nw burbs but it's going to be tough if this ends up being a front end burst with lower rates during the day Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 more like .5" (and who says it can't snow when surface is >32?) and then >.5" after going below 32.....oh yes it can! No one except snow weenies trying to make themselves feel better? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 GFS and Euro were awful. Not sure what Randy were seeing. We need more than a inch of qpf for this event to be worthwhile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 more like .5" (and who says it can't snow when surface is >32?) and then >.5" after going below 32.....oh yes it can! I,ve seen it snow at 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I,ve seen it snow at 40 On February 3 this year, I got .5" of snow when it was 34 degrees. The thin layer of sleet beneath helped, but it can still happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 It can snow all it wants, but without rates, marginal air mass, sun angle, melting and compaction will limit accumulation this late in the season. It is not February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 14, 2014 Author Share Posted March 14, 2014 GFS and Euro were awful. Not sure what Randy were seeing. We need more than a inch of qpf for this event to be worthwhile I don't either. It was 6am, half sleep and kinda buzzed still and I didn't bother to look at soundings. It is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 SREF plumes for 9z for KDCA. Woah. All or nothing with this one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 It can snow all it wants, but without rates, marginal air mass, sun angle, melting and compaction will limit accumulation this late in the season. It is not February. I,m not expecting accumulation , if it snows i,m a happy camper, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Everyone making good points. October 2011, 6 inches here and I don't think it ever went below freezing. However, the sun angle Monday will correspond with a sun angle on Sept. 25 or so. So yes it can snow above 32, but if that's the case now, it had better snow very, very hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feloniousq Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 SREF plumes for 9z for KDCA. Woah. All or nothing with this one! I haven't seen anything to suggest that for DCA the ones at the bottom aren't right. Rain in the first wave, maybe a little accumulation in the second slug. I think people are looking at snow maps and seeing cold temps and the total QPF over a period of hours and putting the two together. It doesn't get cold until most of the QPF is gone. I'm feeling T-2" DC proper, 1-3 Fairfax/Loudoun, maybe 3-6 in the usual spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Just a little heads up here. The mid-level lows do go inland initially, but the Euro is actually quicker with the transfer than GFS (this will be a big deal; it determines where the convergence sets up). There is some pretty okay deformation/frontogen with this thing. I am again impressed by the cold air available, too, should banding become more focused. As always, it's all about rates. Pay attention to banding signals with these convergence areas, embedded within general warm air advection. It seems inevitable that banding will become likely here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I haven't seen anything to suggest that for DCA the ones at the bottom aren't right. Rain in the first wave, maybe a little accumulation in the second slug. I think people are looking at snow maps and seeing cold temps and the total QPF over a period of hours and putting the two together. It doesn't get cold until most of the QPF is gone. I'm feeling T-2" DC proper, 1-3 Fairfax/Loudoun, maybe 3-6 in the usual spots. Seems like the right call to me. Any snow in mid March is cool with me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 No one except snow weenies trying to make themselves feel better? you guys in DC are in a sh*tty place for snow with a storm like this, no doubt, but the models are suggesting to me that my sh*tty place might just be 1 terd shy of DC, so I'm in until the models all start looking like the NAM temp-wise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 NAM is still toasty through 60 at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I-81 corridor fine by 00z MON (8pm SUN) on 12z NAM for wintry precip... changeover should be around then, maybe lil earlier Rain to sleet for DCA through 11pm SUN night... wet snow I-81 corridor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 14, 2014 Author Share Posted March 14, 2014 11pm, raining in DC on the NAM. Wrapped up and warm...hopefully it's the NAM being too wrapped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 thru 57 hrs, NAM is colder than 6Z, so that's a good sign that maybe the trend on NAM is back to being more like the other models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 11pm, raining in DC on the NAM. It definitely the warm outlier. could be onto something though. beast of an ull @ 69. 2 closed contours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I haven't seen anything to suggest that for DCA the ones at the bottom aren't right. Rain in the first wave, maybe a little accumulation in the second slug. I think people are looking at snow maps and seeing cold temps and the total QPF over a period of hours and putting the two together. It doesn't get cold until most of the QPF is gone. I'm feeling T-2" DC proper, 1-3 Fairfax/Loudoun, maybe 3-6 in the usual spots. I pretty much agree - but one interesting quirk here is that several of those bottom SREF members (DCA) with 0" snow are responding to some pretty extreme skewed 2m temps. Check these out: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 nope, NAM is looking stubborn so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 14, 2014 Author Share Posted March 14, 2014 Even at 2am, there's an ugly warm nose...so sleet at 2am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I have a hard time seeing how the high won't be cold enough for the nw burbs. It is almost classic cad signature and stays locked in place. Ggem even showed some zr southeast of 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 unlike any other model, NAM is closing off the 5H low at or west of the MISS....keep it open and it gets colder up and downstairs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I-81 corridor fine by 00z MON (8pm SUN) on 12z NAM for wintry precip... changeover should be around then, maybe lil earlier Rain to sleet for DCA through 11pm SUN night... wet snow I-81 corridor This run is definitely colder... 60 panel 850 is just north of DC and on the 66 panel of the 6z it is just north of the Mason Dixon line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 14, 2014 Author Share Posted March 14, 2014 Damn, 72 hour h5 map is beast...probably won't come up the coast tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I want to get bowled over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 The NAM trended colder than previous 2 runs....Take that from it and run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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