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Saint Patrick's Day Snow Event


stormtracker

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If you were staying up i would know its time to start getting excited. Sleep well severe is right around the corner.

My guess is it comes north. I'm back on the north trend wagon.. Maybe.
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Since 1993 I'm pretty sure there have only been 3 snowstorms that produced 6 or more inches over a significant part of the region after March 12th. 3/14/99, 3/17/2007 and of course 3/12/93. The first 2 were primarily north and west. So about 1 every 6 or 7 years. too lazy right now to look before 1993 long term. I guess 3/25/2013 was close in some areas but the other one's I mentioned had the feel of real snowstorms where as last March did not. Bottom line is receiving significant snow in March from mid month onward south of central PA is rough sledding.

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Since 1993 I'm pretty sure there have only been 3 snowstorms that produced 6 or more inches over a significant part of the region after March 12th. 3/14/99, 3/17/2007 and of course 3/12/93. The first 2 were primarily north and west. So about 1 every 6 or 7 years. too lazy right now to look before 1993 long term. I guess 3/25/2013 was close in some areas but the other one's I mentioned had the feel of real snowstorms where as last March did not. Bottom line is receiving significant snow in March from mid month onward south of central PA is rough sledding.

snow_benchmarks_march.gif

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As I was saying in the post above, ideally I would want to see both consistency and consensus. You can be plenty consistent and wrong. I think it is helpful to have that consistency, but if nothing else shows anything similar that model is all alone--even if it is King Euro. With the moving parts here that have been talked about at length the last few days, I think it will take more time to have consistency and consensus. 

 

Agreed.  It helps that the GFS has been moving towards the Canadian all day, and the NAM also seems to be pointing at something similar.  I think the JMA has been showing a big hit as well.  So hopefully we will see consensus soon.  The nice thing about being consistent is that there will be no consensus until everyone agrees with you.  :-)

 

I still think there is a reasonably good chance that we wake up on Monday to a lot of cold rain, or just a few inches of heavy wet snow, even in Towson.  But I think it's more likely to look like a variation of what the GGEM has been showing than the suppressed solutions the Euro and GFS were showing earlier.

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Does anyone remember temps of last year Palm Sunday?

Marginal. Maybe 40? Most of what fell Monday and accumulated occurred in the early morning hours when it came down heavily with temps just below freezing.. I remember it snowing light to moderately into the afternoon with temps in the low 30s but it wasnt accumulating much if at all.

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I am guessing you are going with this low amount because its March and how hard it is to get more than that?

 

I am not sure how much precip we can get after we are cold enough in the mid levels and the BL..these runs are QPF eaters... getting front thumped works when you have an airmass in place...I'm not really interested in getting thumped when it is 50 degrees out

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The euro basically works like this...sort of like the GGEM

 

Rain starts mid evening....changes to snow...thump is over by 3am.....for many of us much of that thump could be rain/mix/non-accumulating snow...

 

The there is a lull/-SN....then another 0.25" falls from west to east Monday afternoon/evening into a supposedly frigid air mass, but unsure how well 0.25" can accumulate during the day unless it is heavy....

 

The favored areas could do ok

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The euro basically works like this...sort of like the GGEM

 

Rain starts mid evening....changes to snow...thump is over by 3am.....for many of us much of that thump could be rain/mix/non-accumulating snow...

 

The there is a lull/-SN....then another 0.25" falls from west to east Monday afternoon/evening into a supposedly frigid air mass, but unsure how well 0.25" can accumulate during the day unless it is heavy....

 

The favored areas could do ok

OK....I was going to say after your initial "Euro sucks...next"  post,  that it didn't seem that terrible to me. Not great, but there still is an event to track.  The Euro has not been rock solid this winter and there are still 3 days before the event.  Sure, the favored areas will likely do better (that is why they are favored ;)  ), but  this is far from settled.

 

MDstorm

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OK....I was going to say after your initial "Euro sucks...next"  post,  that it didn't seem that terrible to me. Not great, but there still is an event to track.  The Euro has not been rock solid this winter and there are still 3 days before the event.  Sure, the favored areas will likely do better (that is why they are favored ;)  ), but  this is far from settled.

 

MDstorm

I know the snow maps suck but they are showing 6-10" for us. It can't be that bad.

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OK....I was going to say after your initial "Euro sucks...next"  post,  that it didn't seem that terrible to me. Not great, but there still is an event to track.  The Euro has not been rock solid this winter and there are still 3 days before the event.  Sure, the favored areas will likely do better (that is why they are favored ;)  ), but  this is far from settled.

 

MDstorm

 

the only way to do good in  mid march is to get a lot of liquid to fall in a short duration when it is 32 or below, the form is all snow, and it is heavy...if the models start showing that combination, I'll be more intrigued....

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we don't get 0.75" QPF the way we want to on March 16th....we get like 70% of it by 4am....and then the rest in the afternoon/evening....still the usual spots could do decent....

My bar is 4-6" to make this a great storm for this late in the year. I think i can do it. I understand your frustration living where you do this late in the season. If the ULL portion is really frigid like it is showing you can still get 3-5", with the first portion probably melting during the day Monday.

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the only way to do good in  mid march is to get a lot of liquid to fall in a short duration when it is 32 or below, the form is all snow, and it is heavy...if the models start showing that combination, I'll be more intrigued....

Gotcha.  I'm not sure we can pull off a potent combination like you lay out (at least not widespread).  However, we might get a little closer with the 12 Z runs later today.  Still could be a nice event to track.

 

MDstorm

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I know the snow maps suck but they are showing 6-10" for us. It can't be that bad.

Yes they do. As Matt said, this time of year you need more than total qpf for accumulating snow. Timing (overnight) and duration (lots in a little time frame) will go a long way to determining the end result. This event is going to need both of those in it's favor or the snow maps will once again be mostly worthless.

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This thread has absolute terrible analyzation..Its mid March, we get it..snow is not easy to come by in mid March. But this appears to be a set-up that could deliver a decent snowfall for a large part of the area. This isnt the winter of 2012, its the winter of 2014. With a decently strong Canadian high pressure dropping from Central Canada and tracking east over the north tier of the US, there can easily be a solid stripe of 3-6 inches of snow near and just west of I95. Its still about 72-84 hours out so obviously there will be wiggles in track and timing but I like my chances for >=2 inches near Baltimore at this point.

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NWS Discussion

Moisture will begin to overrun the frontal boundary as early as

Sunday first translating to thickening clouds and then

precipitation. Boundary layer may be warm enough at the onset for

rain or a rain/snow mix Sunday...but most guidance suggests colder

air supporting a changeover to snow Sunday night. The NAM is an

exception which favors a warmer solution /at least in some areas/ but

prefer a blend of deterministic/ensemble European model (ecmwf) and GFS solutions

and more frozen precipitation.

Main thrust of precipitation due to overrunning/isentropic lift

occurs Sunday night into early Monday...with models indicating one

wave of low pressure forming off the coast by 12z Monday. Another low

further south tied to the upper level system will be in play as

well for Monday...however latest models are trending on tracking

this more east than northeast but there is some uncertainty with

this track.

Will obviously need to fine tune the details of this complex pattern

as we get closer...but confidence is increasing in a period of snow

across the majority of the County Warning Area Sunday night into Monday and

continues to be advertised in the severe weather potential statement.

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