Ian Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 If you were staying up i would know its time to start getting excited. Sleep well severe is right around the corner.My guess is it comes north. I'm back on the north trend wagon.. Maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 you know-it-alls just don't know what to make of it when the models say snow and you don't want to believe it lol do you think you are better than the models as a whole or have you just forgotten what has happened here in the last 4 months? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Since 1993 I'm pretty sure there have only been 3 snowstorms that produced 6 or more inches over a significant part of the region after March 12th. 3/14/99, 3/17/2007 and of course 3/12/93. The first 2 were primarily north and west. So about 1 every 6 or 7 years. too lazy right now to look before 1993 long term. I guess 3/25/2013 was close in some areas but the other one's I mentioned had the feel of real snowstorms where as last March did not. Bottom line is receiving significant snow in March from mid month onward south of central PA is rough sledding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Since 1993 I'm pretty sure there have only been 3 snowstorms that produced 6 or more inches over a significant part of the region after March 12th. 3/14/99, 3/17/2007 and of course 3/12/93. The first 2 were primarily north and west. So about 1 every 6 or 7 years. too lazy right now to look before 1993 long term. I guess 3/25/2013 was close in some areas but the other one's I mentioned had the feel of real snowstorms where as last March did not. Bottom line is receiving significant snow in March from mid month onward south of central PA is rough sledding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 As I was saying in the post above, ideally I would want to see both consistency and consensus. You can be plenty consistent and wrong. I think it is helpful to have that consistency, but if nothing else shows anything similar that model is all alone--even if it is King Euro. With the moving parts here that have been talked about at length the last few days, I think it will take more time to have consistency and consensus. Agreed. It helps that the GFS has been moving towards the Canadian all day, and the NAM also seems to be pointing at something similar. I think the JMA has been showing a big hit as well. So hopefully we will see consensus soon. The nice thing about being consistent is that there will be no consensus until everyone agrees with you. :-) I still think there is a reasonably good chance that we wake up on Monday to a lot of cold rain, or just a few inches of heavy wet snow, even in Towson. But I think it's more likely to look like a variation of what the GGEM has been showing than the suppressed solutions the Euro and GFS were showing earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Canadian looks like 1-3" for DC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 This appears to be more than 3 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Canadian looks like 1-3" for DC... I am guessing you are going with this low amount because its March and how hard it is to get more than that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Canadian looks like 1-3" for DC... Not liking the earlier start times but high us in good place and precip seems to be heavy which we have been lacking much this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I am guessing you are going with this low amount because its March and how hard it is to get more than that? If it's cold enough it can snow in march. I got 15 march 1993 with marginal tenors falling during daytime Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welbane Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Actually it looks like a rain event. Canadian looks like 1-3" for DC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Does anyone remember temps of last year Palm Sunday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 27 degrees below average for snow to accumulate during the day but ony 7 below at night. That's the magic of March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 That's a lot of snow QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Does anyone remember temps of last year Palm Sunday? Marginal. Maybe 40? Most of what fell Monday and accumulated occurred in the early morning hours when it came down heavily with temps just below freezing.. I remember it snowing light to moderately into the afternoon with temps in the low 30s but it wasnt accumulating much if at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I am guessing you are going with this low amount because its March and how hard it is to get more than that? I am not sure how much precip we can get after we are cold enough in the mid levels and the BL..these runs are QPF eaters... getting front thumped works when you have an airmass in place...I'm not really interested in getting thumped when it is 50 degrees out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 latest GFS MOS for 8pm sunday night is 39... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 euro sucks....next this could be ok for the favored locations I guess...but even the burbs dont look good.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 The euro basically works like this...sort of like the GGEM Rain starts mid evening....changes to snow...thump is over by 3am.....for many of us much of that thump could be rain/mix/non-accumulating snow... The there is a lull/-SN....then another 0.25" falls from west to east Monday afternoon/evening into a supposedly frigid air mass, but unsure how well 0.25" can accumulate during the day unless it is heavy.... The favored areas could do ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Thanks for the info Matt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 The euro basically works like this...sort of like the GGEM Rain starts mid evening....changes to snow...thump is over by 3am.....for many of us much of that thump could be rain/mix/non-accumulating snow... The there is a lull/-SN....then another 0.25" falls from west to east Monday afternoon/evening into a supposedly frigid air mass, but unsure how well 0.25" can accumulate during the day unless it is heavy.... The favored areas could do ok OK....I was going to say after your initial "Euro sucks...next" post, that it didn't seem that terrible to me. Not great, but there still is an event to track. The Euro has not been rock solid this winter and there are still 3 days before the event. Sure, the favored areas will likely do better (that is why they are favored ), but this is far from settled. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Thanks for the info Matt. we don't get 0.75" QPF the way we want to on March 16th....we get like 70% of it by 4am....and then the rest in the afternoon/evening....still the usual spots could do decent.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 OK....I was going to say after your initial "Euro sucks...next" post, that it didn't seem that terrible to me. Not great, but there still is an event to track. The Euro has not been rock solid this winter and there are still 3 days before the event. Sure, the favored areas will likely do better (that is why they are favored ), but this is far from settled. MDstorm I know the snow maps suck but they are showing 6-10" for us. It can't be that bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 OK....I was going to say after your initial "Euro sucks...next" post, that it didn't seem that terrible to me. Not great, but there still is an event to track. The Euro has not been rock solid this winter and there are still 3 days before the event. Sure, the favored areas will likely do better (that is why they are favored ), but this is far from settled. MDstorm the only way to do good in mid march is to get a lot of liquid to fall in a short duration when it is 32 or below, the form is all snow, and it is heavy...if the models start showing that combination, I'll be more intrigued.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 we don't get 0.75" QPF the way we want to on March 16th....we get like 70% of it by 4am....and then the rest in the afternoon/evening....still the usual spots could do decent.... My bar is 4-6" to make this a great storm for this late in the year. I think i can do it. I understand your frustration living where you do this late in the season. If the ULL portion is really frigid like it is showing you can still get 3-5", with the first portion probably melting during the day Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 the only way to do good in mid march is to get a lot of liquid to fall in a short duration when it is 32 or below, the form is all snow, and it is heavy...if the models start showing that combination, I'll be more intrigued.... Gotcha. I'm not sure we can pull off a potent combination like you lay out (at least not widespread). However, we might get a little closer with the 12 Z runs later today. Still could be a nice event to track. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Does anyone remember temps of last year Palm Sunday? I scored pretty well, 4.5", and never dropped below freezing. ~33 for most of the early morning period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I know the snow maps suck but they are showing 6-10" for us. It can't be that bad. Yes they do. As Matt said, this time of year you need more than total qpf for accumulating snow. Timing (overnight) and duration (lots in a little time frame) will go a long way to determining the end result. This event is going to need both of those in it's favor or the snow maps will once again be mostly worthless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 This thread has absolute terrible analyzation..Its mid March, we get it..snow is not easy to come by in mid March. But this appears to be a set-up that could deliver a decent snowfall for a large part of the area. This isnt the winter of 2012, its the winter of 2014. With a decently strong Canadian high pressure dropping from Central Canada and tracking east over the north tier of the US, there can easily be a solid stripe of 3-6 inches of snow near and just west of I95. Its still about 72-84 hours out so obviously there will be wiggles in track and timing but I like my chances for >=2 inches near Baltimore at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 NWS Discussion Moisture will begin to overrun the frontal boundary as early as Sunday first translating to thickening clouds and then precipitation. Boundary layer may be warm enough at the onset for rain or a rain/snow mix Sunday...but most guidance suggests colder air supporting a changeover to snow Sunday night. The NAM is an exception which favors a warmer solution /at least in some areas/ but prefer a blend of deterministic/ensemble European model (ecmwf) and GFS solutions and more frozen precipitation. Main thrust of precipitation due to overrunning/isentropic lift occurs Sunday night into early Monday...with models indicating one wave of low pressure forming off the coast by 12z Monday. Another low further south tied to the upper level system will be in play as well for Monday...however latest models are trending on tracking this more east than northeast but there is some uncertainty with this track. Will obviously need to fine tune the details of this complex pattern as we get closer...but confidence is increasing in a period of snow across the majority of the County Warning Area Sunday night into Monday and continues to be advertised in the severe weather potential statement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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