Heisy Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 This run is going to be sweet, looks like 12z GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 LWX appears in per the 1030 zone update (DC) Sunday Night Snow likely. Lows in the upper 20s. Chance of snow 70 percent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 On 3/14/2014 at 2:29 AM, stormtracker said: Nam looks pretty damn good. EDIT. Ninja'd by hizen My internal clock isn't set to sleep, it is set to model runs ...This is a really amazing run, the 500 ULL is less strung out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 This run should be a MECS from DC-NYC. NAM leaving little if any energy behind a la GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Temps are a worry, though, verbatim. 850s and surface temps both seem warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 The 500mb ULL is coming N Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 On 3/14/2014 at 2:34 AM, Highzenberg said: This run is going to be sweet, looks like 12z GGEM Good for rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 On 3/14/2014 at 2:38 AM, TowsonWeather said: Temps are a worry, though, verbatim. 850s and surface temps both seem warmer.Take the precip and add it in with the coldest model. Wala. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Heavy rain should accumulate no problem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 On 3/14/2014 at 2:38 AM, TowsonWeather said: Temps are a worry, though, verbatim. 850s and surface temps both seem warmer. Yep the full phase works out against us as far as temps go it would appear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 On 3/14/2014 at 2:34 AM, Highzenberg said: This run is going to be sweet, looks like 12z GGEM Greatest model extrapolation ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 On 3/14/2014 at 2:35 AM, Ian said: LWX appears in per the 1030 zone update (DC) Sunday Night Snow likely. Lows in the upper 20s. Chance of snow 70 percent curse of lwx lives on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 changeover occurs between 4-8 am monday as low pops south of atlantic city and plenty of moisture still yet to come. Not sure a miller B in March is going to work for us, but plenty of model runs yet for adjustments. The high is in a good spot at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 The NAM could be overamping this thing up a bit and the closing off of h5 is suspect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 NAM is the furthest north of all the models and at the end of its run though possible, I have a hard time believing the NAM will score the coup when the issue up to now has been supression Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 -10c in Cumberland and rain in DC. Don't know how it manages that. Surface CAD looks locked in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 On 3/14/2014 at 2:45 AM, UVVmet84 said: The NAM could be overamping this thing up a bit and the closing off of h5 is suspect. You mean the nam far beyond it's useful range with winters storms might be wrong? Nah, I'm oiling up my raincoat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 On 3/14/2014 at 2:44 AM, kurtstack said: changeover occurs between 4-8 am monday as low pops south of atlantic city and plenty of moisture still yet to come. 850s never get below 0. I don't think we changeover if the NAM is right. According to IWM, theres a warm nose from 800-850. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 also goofy is the fact that the NAM has surface temps below freezing by 78 hrs....huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 On 3/14/2014 at 2:46 AM, Amped said: -10c in Cumberland and rain in DC. Don't know how it manages that. Surface CAD looks locked in. huh? cumberland canada? or you talking sfc? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 NAM is a good model..especially 60-84 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 On 3/14/2014 at 2:48 AM, Ji said: NAM is a good model..especially 60-84 hours you ought to post more often Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 On 3/14/2014 at 2:46 AM, Bob Chill said: You mean the nam far beyond it's useful range with winters storms might be wrong? Nah, I'm oiling up my raincoat I know Bob Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 On 3/14/2014 at 2:47 AM, mitchnick said: also goofy is the fact that the NAM has surface temps below freezing by 78 hrs....huh? HP Placement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 On 3/14/2014 at 2:21 AM, mitchnick said: I was talking about BWI we didn't have the temp busts this year that DCA had this year, and every year for that matter What is your recollection of 12/10 and 2/3 in the BWI area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 On 3/14/2014 at 2:48 AM, Ji said: NAM is a good model..especially 60-84 hours I've never seen it phail...to be wrong... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 On 3/14/2014 at 2:47 AM, mitchnick said: also goofy is the fact that the NAM has surface temps below freezing by 78 hrs....huh? massive ice storm. where is yoda? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 If anyone tried to extrapolate from the NAM at 76 hours, if it showed a massive snowstorm, they'd be burned at the stake by anti-Namists Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 On 3/14/2014 at 2:50 AM, Ian said: massive ice storm. where is yoda? Hmmm...we've had historic snows in late march a few times in the last 100 years. But not crippling ice. I'm in. #paddycrippleice14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 The multiple wave crap is tricky. It's possible none of the runs we've seen are that close to the end result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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