stormtracker Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Let's keep it storm focused. A limited amount of cross talk, but not extended banter and no asking how much for your backyard garbage. This thread will be strictly moderated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 I agree totally agree with what Ian said about a 4-8" solid area wide is a gigantic feat as we enter the 3rd week of march. I definitely jump into the excitement of the good model runs but I know better than to think it's all "gonna just work" out for a once in a decade+ kind of event. Models are models and ma climo is ma climo. As matt said, very complicated dance of multiple moving pieces at medium leads. Definitively saying anything is right over another is guessing at best. I'm prob more bullish than matt for some accum snow. I've seen enough of the various solutions the last 4 days or so to think chances are in our favor overnight sunday for at least a light event. Decent support for that pretty much on everything. 1-3/2-4 kinda deal. A laundry list of reasons for a 6" event not happening keeps me in check. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 So brief recap in this new thread (if I may)... 12Z GFS gives us a really good front-end amount before sliding out east, and below freezing through Monday. 12Z GGEM hammers us, and below freezing all day Monday. 12Z NAM (beyond 48-h, yeah!) looks like a good oveall set-up but its run ends before the event really would start. 12Z GGEM looked like a good set-up as well. 12Z UKIE looked like it would be similar to the GFS/GGEM (but it stopped at 72-h?) 12Z Euro...still waiting to see what it says, but the 00Z backed off from earlier indications. I can't recall what the Precious said (oops, I mean the JMA)!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 I agree totally agree with what Ian said about a 4-8" solid area wide is a gigantic feat as we enter the 3rd week of march. I definitely jump into the excitement of the good model runs but I know better than to think it's all "gonna just work" out for a once in a decade+ kind of event. Models are models and ma climo is ma climo. As matt said, very complicated dance of multiple moving pieces at medium leads. Definitively saying anything is right over another is guessing at best. I'm prob more bullish than matt for some accum snow. I've seen enough of the various solutions the last 4 days or so to think chances are in our favor overnight sunday for at least a light event. Decent support for that pretty much on everything. 1-3/2-4 kinda deal. A laundry list of reasons for a 6" event not happening keeps me in check. We could def see snow.. but other than that not sure there's much to say. I do wish people would stop getting so excited about raw temps though. Here's GFS raw vs MOS for 0z Monday: Granted, the solution may be in the middle, but probably leaning a bit toward MOS. If you're north and west on a hill you obviously care a little less but in DC area all signs point to potential temp issues even if it's colder than normal as we currently stand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 I agree totally agree with what Ian said about a 4-8" solid area wide is a gigantic feat as we enter the 3rd week of march. I definitely jump into the excitement of the good model runs but I know better than to think it's all "gonna just work" out for a once in a decade+ kind of event. Models are models and ma climo is ma climo. As matt said, very complicated dance of multiple moving pieces at medium leads. Definitively saying anything is right over another is guessing at best. I'm prob more bullish than matt for some accum snow. I've seen enough of the various solutions the last 4 days or so to think chances are in our favor overnight sunday for at least a light event. Decent support for that pretty much on everything. 1-3/2-4 kinda deal. A laundry list of reasons for a 6" event not happening keeps me in check. This is a good, even-keeled expectation. I think the indications are strong enough to expect accumulating snow, and your 1-3" or 2-4" amount is reasonable to say at this point, with the possibility of something quite significant if things come together just right. All the same, 2-4" in mid-March is a feat, especially if we stay quite cold through the day on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Thanks Ian, that helped clarify things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 12z GFS individuals rolling out now, looks like plenty of big hits... what a change from 6z lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 We could def see snow.. but other than that not sure there's much to say. I do wish people would stop getting so excited about raw temps though. Here's GFS raw vs MOS for 0z Monday: gfs_t2m_b_washdc_29.png gmos_t2m_washdc_27.png Granted, the solution may be in the middle, but probably leaning a bit toward MOS. If you're north and west on a hill you obviously care a little less but in DC area all signs point to potential temp issues even if it's colder than normal as we currently stand. In this scenario I'd definitely lean to MOS and possibly a little higher in downtown DC. Certainly think starting as rain is on the table and probably even likely if a storm does happen. Given the history of March snowstorms in the city (it's been 15 years since a significant one), hard to think the urban areas would see major snow (>6") until we're like 6 hours out with all guidance saying 8-10"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 In this scenario I'd definitely lean to MOS and possibly a little higher in downtown DC. Certainly think starting as rain is on the table and probably even likely if a storm does happen. Given the history of March snowstorms in the city (it's been 15 years since a significant one), hard to think the urban areas would see major snow (>6") until we're like 6 hours out with all guidance saying 8-10"+. I think we'd still have to be skeptical. Temperatures are going to be an issue unless we are seeing the GGEM's 850's on all the models. That's probably unlikely just based on climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 GFS bufkit produces 5" at IAD for the event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 So brief recap in this new thread (if I may)... 12Z GFS gives us a really good front-end amount before sliding out east, and below freezing through Monday. 12Z GGEM hammers us, and below freezing all day Monday. 12Z NAM (beyond 48-h, yeah!) looks like a good oveall set-up but its run ends before the event really would start. 12Z GGEM looked like a good set-up as well. 12Z UKIE looked like it would be similar to the GFS/GGEM (but it stopped at 72-h?) 12Z Euro...still waiting to see what it says, but the 00Z backed off from earlier indications. I can't recall what the Precious said (oops, I mean the JMA)!! I can see 12z UKIE on meteocentre at 96 and 120, but only the MSLP map. 120 doesn't matter too much because its long gone by then (up near Nova Scotia/Newfoundland region). The 96 hr SLP map has a 997mb low basically around the area where VA/KY/TN borders are... prob extreme NE TN if had to choose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Looks like the energy is being kicked east on the 12z EURO... not being held back as much as the 00z run did at 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 I can see 12z UKIE on meteocentre at 96 and 120, but only the MSLP map. 120 doesn't matter too much because its long gone by then (up near Nova Scotia/Newfoundland region). The 96 hr SLP map has a 997mb low basically around the area where VA/KY/TN borders are... prob extreme NE TN if had to choose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 EURO looks much improved, lot more phasing going on thru 66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Meteograms for 12z GGEM are still pretty crazy for DC on meteocentre. 40mm qpf falls as snow, so roughly 16". Of that, 16mm (about 6" of snow) falls in a three-hour stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 EURO looks much improved, lot more phasing going on thru 66 A lot better than 00z... 12z has SLP in AR 1035 H marching in lockstep to the N.. in NE MN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Looks like the energy is being kicked east on the 12z EURO... not being held back as much as the 00z run did at 48 I take it that's probably a better sign compared to 00Z? From the little discussion on last night's Euro run, it held the energy back too much for anything good to happen downstream. At least that's what I gleaned, not sure if that's accurate. (ETA: Thanks, by the way, on the information concerning the UKIE a few posts back...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 I take it that's probably a better sign compared to 00Z? From the little discussion on last night's Euro run, it held the energy back too much for anything good to happen downstream. At least that's what I gleaned, not sure if that's accurate. (ETA: Thanks, by the way, on the information concerning the UKIE a few posts back...) Yes its better... more phasing and the energy is coming east... PV looks better on the 12z run too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 HR84 we have snow in DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 I dont think the EURO will be as north as the GGEM, but it was a fairly significant jump north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 I dont think the EURO will be as north as the GGEM, but it was a fairly significant jump north. Perhaps something quasi-GFS like, it sounds... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Snowing nicely hrs 84-90 at DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Mod snow at 90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 HR84 we have snow in DC. Timing of the event looks to be perfect for the area. I think that'll help us compared to other folks who have to do much of their accumulating during daylight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Great trend on EURO, not totally there yet, but obviously it took a step to the light....it almost tries to bring all the energy out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Great trend on EURO, not totally there yet, but obviously it took a step to the light....it almost tries to bring all the energy out. Now at least we have every major model on board for something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 The main 500ULL is trying to get its act together down south at 108 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Great trend on EURO, not totally there yet, but obviously it took a step to the light....it almost tries to bring all the energy out. So it would seem that the GGEM/GFS/EURO show some snow... UKIE we can guess that it would by peeking at the SLP maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Haven't really followed this much, but from the sounds of things here, this seems like a model headache. What's causing the models to struggle so much with it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Haven't really followed this much, but from the sounds of things here, this seems like a model headache. What's causing the models to struggle so much with it? This is a phasing situation, which is always tricky for models to handle. In this case, it seems like part of the southern stream energy phases, while some of it gets left behind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.