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Saint Patrick's Day Snow Event


stormtracker

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I agree totally agree with what Ian said about a 4-8" solid area wide is a gigantic feat as we enter the 3rd week of march. I definitely jump into the excitement of the good model runs but I know better than to think it's all "gonna just work" out for a once in a decade+ kind of event. Models are models and ma climo is ma climo. As matt said, very complicated dance of multiple moving pieces at medium leads. Definitively saying anything is right over another is guessing at best. 

 

I'm prob more bullish than matt for some accum snow. I've seen enough of the various solutions the last 4 days or so to think chances are in our favor overnight sunday for at least a light event. Decent support for that pretty much on everything. 1-3/2-4 kinda deal. A laundry list of reasons for a 6" event not happening keeps me in check. 

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So brief recap in this new thread (if I may)...

 

12Z GFS gives us a really good front-end amount before sliding out east, and below freezing through Monday.

12Z GGEM hammers us, and below freezing all day Monday.

12Z NAM (beyond 48-h, yeah!) looks like a good oveall set-up but its run ends before the event really would start.

12Z GGEM looked like a good set-up as well.

12Z UKIE looked like it would be similar to the GFS/GGEM (but it stopped at 72-h?)

 

12Z Euro...still waiting to see what it says, but the 00Z backed off from earlier indications.

 

I can't recall what the Precious said (oops, I mean the JMA)!!

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I agree totally agree with what Ian said about a 4-8" solid area wide is a gigantic feat as we enter the 3rd week of march. I definitely jump into the excitement of the good model runs but I know better than to think it's all "gonna just work" out for a once in a decade+ kind of event. Models are models and ma climo is ma climo. As matt said, very complicated dance of multiple moving pieces at medium leads. Definitively saying anything is right over another is guessing at best. 

 

I'm prob more bullish than matt for some accum snow. I've seen enough of the various solutions the last 4 days or so to think chances are in our favor overnight sunday for at least a light event. Decent support for that pretty much on everything. 1-3/2-4 kinda deal. A laundry list of reasons for a 6" event not happening keeps me in check. 

We could def see snow.. but other than that not sure there's much to say.  I do wish people would stop getting so excited about raw temps though.  Here's GFS raw vs MOS for 0z Monday:

 

post-1615-0-10819300-1394731385_thumb.pn

 

post-1615-0-21119500-1394731388_thumb.pn

 

Granted, the solution may be in the middle, but probably leaning a bit toward MOS.  If you're north and west on a hill you obviously care a little less but in DC area all signs point to potential temp issues even if it's colder than normal as we currently stand.  

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I agree totally agree with what Ian said about a 4-8" solid area wide is a gigantic feat as we enter the 3rd week of march. I definitely jump into the excitement of the good model runs but I know better than to think it's all "gonna just work" out for a once in a decade+ kind of event. Models are models and ma climo is ma climo. As matt said, very complicated dance of multiple moving pieces at medium leads. Definitively saying anything is right over another is guessing at best. 

 

I'm prob more bullish than matt for some accum snow. I've seen enough of the various solutions the last 4 days or so to think chances are in our favor overnight sunday for at least a light event. Decent support for that pretty much on everything. 1-3/2-4 kinda deal. A laundry list of reasons for a 6" event not happening keeps me in check. 

 

This is a good, even-keeled expectation.  I think the indications are strong enough to expect accumulating snow, and your 1-3" or 2-4" amount is reasonable to say at this point, with the possibility of something quite significant if things come together just right.  All the same, 2-4" in mid-March is a feat, especially if we stay quite cold through the day on Monday.

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We could def see snow.. but other than that not sure there's much to say.  I do wish people would stop getting so excited about raw temps though.  Here's GFS raw vs MOS for 0z Monday:

 

attachicon.gifgfs_t2m_b_washdc_29.png

 

attachicon.gifgmos_t2m_washdc_27.png

 

Granted, the solution may be in the middle, but probably leaning a bit toward MOS.  If you're north and west on a hill you obviously care a little less but in DC area all signs point to potential temp issues even if it's colder than normal as we currently stand.  

In this scenario I'd definitely lean to MOS and possibly a little higher in downtown DC.  Certainly think starting as rain is on the table and probably even likely if a storm does happen.  

 

Given the history of March snowstorms in the city (it's been 15 years since a significant one), hard to think the urban areas would see major snow (>6") until we're like 6 hours out with all guidance saying 8-10"+.  

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In this scenario I'd definitely lean to MOS and possibly a little higher in downtown DC.  Certainly think starting as rain is on the table and probably even likely if a storm does happen.  

 

Given the history of March snowstorms in the city (it's been 15 years since a significant one), hard to think the urban areas would see major snow (>6") until we're like 6 hours out with all guidance saying 8-10"+.  

I think we'd still have to be skeptical. Temperatures are going to be an issue unless we are seeing the GGEM's 850's on all the models. That's probably unlikely just based on climo.

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So brief recap in this new thread (if I may)...

 

12Z GFS gives us a really good front-end amount before sliding out east, and below freezing through Monday.

12Z GGEM hammers us, and below freezing all day Monday.

12Z NAM (beyond 48-h, yeah!) looks like a good oveall set-up but its run ends before the event really would start.

12Z GGEM looked like a good set-up as well.

12Z UKIE looked like it would be similar to the GFS/GGEM (but it stopped at 72-h?)

 

12Z Euro...still waiting to see what it says, but the 00Z backed off from earlier indications.

 

I can't recall what the Precious said (oops, I mean the JMA)!!

 

I can see 12z UKIE on meteocentre at 96 and 120, but only the MSLP map.  120 doesn't matter too much

because its long gone by then (up near Nova Scotia/Newfoundland region).  The 96 hr SLP map has a 997mb low basically around the area where VA/KY/TN borders are... prob extreme NE TN if had to choose

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I can see 12z UKIE on meteocentre at 96 and 120, but only the MSLP map.  120 doesn't matter too much

because its long gone by then (up near Nova Scotia/Newfoundland region).  The 96 hr SLP map has a 997mb low basically around the area where VA/KY/TN borders are... prob extreme NE TN if had to choose

 

GZ_D5_PN_096_0000.gif

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Looks like the energy is being kicked east on the 12z EURO... not being held back as much as the 00z run did at 48

 

I take it that's probably a better sign compared to 00Z?  From the little discussion on last night's Euro run, it held the energy back too much for anything good to happen downstream.  At least that's what I gleaned, not sure if that's accurate.

 

(ETA:  Thanks, by the way, on the information concerning the UKIE a few posts back...)

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I take it that's probably a better sign compared to 00Z?  From the little discussion on last night's Euro run, it held the energy back too much for anything good to happen downstream.  At least that's what I gleaned, not sure if that's accurate.

 

(ETA:  Thanks, by the way, on the information concerning the UKIE a few posts back...)

 

Yes its better... more phasing and the energy is coming east... PV looks better on the 12z run too

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Haven't really followed this much, but from the sounds of things here, this seems like a model headache.  What's causing the models to struggle so much with it?

This is a phasing situation, which is always tricky for models to handle.  In this case, it seems like part of the southern stream energy phases, while some of it gets left behind.  

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