BuffaloWeather Posted March 28, 2014 Author Share Posted March 28, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 AND HERE WE GO! one of my fave sick quotes. so appropriate for the illness we share. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 99.9% of the W/CNY population after looking at NAM: Mark me in the .1% then. I would absolutely love another snow event! Whats another 1 or 2 days of cool weather and some slop. It'll be fun. These elevation events are always fascinating, and this one has some potential to even hook up the lowlanders. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 18z gfs cold enuff for some low elevation action. 18z nam...cold enough for serious action almost region wide. srefs for rochester average 7" with a couple plumes above 20".. WOW and I thaught the blizzard was the end. even said goodbye on weather sites. WELL HELLO again! Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 18z gfs cold enuff for some low elevation action. 18z nam...cold enough for serious action almost region wide. srefs for rochester average 7" with a couple plumes above 20".. WOW and I thaught the blizzard was the end. even said goodbye on weather sites. WELL HELLO again! Sent from my iPad i love your post as I read from my iPhone outside sitting by a bonfire on this beautiful early spring night! Keep em comin! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 crickets...... Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 I think the CNY people have thrown in the towel as far as snow for this storm goes. Time to bring on Spring! I'm surprised our western NY friends are quiet since they could still be in play for a significant snowfall tonight. crickets......Sent from my iPad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 I think the CNY people have thrown in the towel as far as snow for this storm goes. Time to bring on Spring! I'm surprised our western NY friends are quiet since they could still be in play for a significant snowfall tonight. Well, NAM seemingly still gives some of CNY a period of snow late overnight. GGEM last night had it too. But GFS/Euro pretty much keep most of the lower elevations of CNY as a cold rain, light mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 GFS appears just a tiny amount cooler than 06z run...still warmer than NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 GFS appears just a tiny amount cooler than 06z run...still warmer than NAM. Is this going to be a case where we're just cold enough aloft but boundary layer temps are going to be too warm? Probably doesn't make much difference because whatever frozen precip falls will be gone by the end of the day tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 I feel like mud season starts today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 NWS BUF seems quite unimpressed with this event. They're going with only a WWA for the southern tier with 3-5 inches at higher elevations in Southern Erie County (only calling for 1-2" according to their latest map for me in OP at 875 feet), with 4-7" in the highest elevations of Cattaraugus, Wyoming, and Chautauqua counties. They have not even an advisory for Northern Erie or Niagara Counties. Maybe the low totals will justify but with heavy snow falling and accumulating in Cleveland,OH (200 miles SW of here and 300 feet lower in elevation) during the middle of the day, I fully expect the same here if not more with the storm hitting mostly during the overnight hours, being at a higher elevation, and the storm deepening as it passes closer to us. Here's a map from WIVB showing their in house models totals. Honestly I think we're in for a solid 6" here but we shall see. Anyway a nice little surprise bonus late season snowfall for WNY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 NWS BUF seems quite unimpressed with this event. They're going with only a WWA for the southern tier with 3-5 inches at higher elevations in Southern Erie County (only calling for 1-2" according to their latest map for me in OP at 875 feet), with 4-7" in the highest elevations of Cattaraugus, Wyoming, and Chautauqua counties. They have not even an advisory for Northern Erie or Niagara Counties. Maybe the low totals will justify but with heavy snow falling and accumulating in Cleveland,OH (200 miles SW of here and 300 feet lower in elevation) during the middle of the day, I fully expect the same here if not more with the storm hitting mostly during the overnight hours, being at a higher elevation, and the storm deepening as it passes closer to us. Here's a map from WIVB showing their in house models totals. Honestly I think we're in for a solid 6" here but we shall see. Anyway a nice little surprise bonus late season snowfall for WNY. Wow, that's a big difference in a local forecast. WIVB and NWS are usually very close in their predictions. BUF has an inch or less for my area, while WIVB has 5-7" for the northtowns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 Wow, that's a big difference in a local forecast. WIVB and NWS are usually very close in their predictions. BUF has an inch or less for my area, while WIVB has 5-7" for the northtowns.I honestly think the NWS is too low in their totals. I'd be going for 3-5 for Northern Erie/Niagara, 5-8" for Southern Erie and Chautauqua, and 8-12" for Wyoming, Cattaraugus, Allegany counties. Guess that's why I'm not a met at the NWS lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 Already changed over to sleet here in Rochester. Temp is down to 33 in my backyard. This storm definitely seems to have the potential to be quite the little surprise for many of us. NWS is being very conservative as LEkid has stated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 Already changed over to sleet here in Rochester. Temp is down to 33 in my backyard. This storm definitely seems to have the potential to be quite the little surprise for many of us. NWS is being very conservative as LEkid has stated.ya already have some pingers and a few wet flakes mixed in here and the sun hasn't set nor has the heavy precip hit (dynamic cooling). Also down to 32.9 degrees already which I definitely did not expect this early. I think this will definitely be an over performer (if you go by the NWS forecast). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 temp 33.4 here in Pittsford (just SE of Rochester), still rain- kinda surprised, expected to see some flakes considering how cool it is already. NAM 18 z just nuts. also, webcam at Bristol shows snow at top and unfortunately still rain at base- so we will see. dewpoints prettty cool too. it all depends now what is happening at the upper levels. NE winds a positive. fingers crossed but ready to be disapointed.. time shall tell. expecting 3" wet stuff. a degree or two colder and easy could see 12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 Pounding sleet on the West side of Rochester. Ground is covered in an eigth of an inch. Never expected this before sunset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 We're going to be in for it. Tons of precip moving up from the south. Colder air and dynamic cooling should begin to switch everyone over to snow within the next hour or so. In fact check out Grand Island right now. Snow is coming down very hard and sticking to roads! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 Nothing but a monsoon of rain here for the last couple of hours. Just making it a bigger mess than it already is around here. Really didn't need this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 This is gonna be a surprise for a bunch of us...changed to snow along the lake here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 Western NY will do fine! Can't believe the NWS in BUF went with WWA's...SYR area is the battleground, and I expect it to be a nowcast event for here. A few miles here or there or a couple tenth's of a degree in the profile higher or lower than what is progged will determine our fate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 What's the average qpf for this storm in the WNY cities? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 Western NY will do fine! Can't believe the NWS in BUF went with WWA's...SYR area is the battleground, and I expect it to be a nowcast event for here. A few miles here or there or a couple tenth's of a degree in the profile higher or lower than what is progged will determine our fate.cant believe not even an advisory for Buffalo and the Niagara Frontier! Calling for 1-2" max for the Niagara Frontier and so far they're the ones seeing all the snow! By the webcams Grand Island and other parts of N Erie/ S Niagara have already seen an inch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 What's the average qpf for this storm in the WNY cities?around .8 for KBUF and 1.0 to 1.1 for ROC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 Freezing rain in the ob at BUF at 7pm. Pretty cool to see for March 29th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 cant believe not even an advisory for Buffalo and the Niagara Frontier! Calling for 1-2" max for the Niagara Frontier and so far they're the ones seeing all the snow! By the webcams Grand Island and other parts of N Erie/ S Niagara have already seen an inch! It's absolutely unbelievable. I'm looking at the radar, the time, my thermometer and It would seem like this could be the biggest forecast bust I've ever seen. Fingers crossed. Snowing heavily now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 I have no snow in Lackawanna, yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 Freezing rain in the ob at BUF at 7pm. Pretty cool to see for March 29th.definitely quite an unusual and cool ob! No heavy snow here yet but we have rain, some pingers, and some wet flakes mixed in. 32.3 degrees here!Edit too add: just looked out the window and it's almost entirely sleet now. Cars/grass already are covered! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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