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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: End of Winter/Spring


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Heading Upstate for the first time since early mid-February when there was about 32" on my deck.  I am really hoping for a surprise dumping of heavy wet snow.  What is the likelihood at 2/K in DE county over the weekend? I see that the focus fo the heaviest precip seems to be between there and the coast on Sat eve.  Hoping for a quicker changover or a long duration event into Sunday.

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Heading Upstate for the first time since early mid-February when there was about 32" on my deck.  I am really hoping for a surprise dumping of heavy wet snow.  What is the likelihood at 2/K in DE county over the weekend? I see that the focus fo the heaviest precip seems to be between there and the coast on Sat eve.  Hoping for a quicker changover or a long duration event into Sunday.

I think Delaware county maybe just a bit too far east, even at higher elevations. W/C southern tier and Finger Lakes (esp. higher elevations) may get quite the surprise, if people don't hear of changes to the forecast (which certainly will be coming) for Sat eve. through Sun morn. 12z NAM shows quite an accumulation for some.

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I think Delaware county maybe just a bit too far east, even at higher elevations. W/C southern tier and Finger Lakes (esp. higher elevations) may get quite the surprise, if people don't hear of changes to the forecast (which certainly will be coming) for Sat eve. through Sun morn. 12z NAM shows quite an accumulation for some.

If NAM is to be believed we all go to snow with 4 to 8 for lower elevations and 6 to 12 + for higher ups. Looks like the past storm in a way with more mix east of 81. Wow. Sick of it but I will always take a snowstorm so bring it! Lets see what GFS shows for temps. It looked warmer to me at 850 at 0z and 6z.

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Anyone interested in talking about a snowstorm Sat. night? (higher elevations W/C NY with some accums in lower elevations?) Someone is going to be slapped really hard! Wet snowstorm.

Hey LEK, GFS looks warmer to me with more of a mix. Any thought on which model may be performing better? GFS is also very, very wet(even more than NAM!).

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Hey LEK, GFS looks warmer to me with more of a mix. Any thought on which model may be performing better? GFS is also very, very wet(even more than NAM!).

This will be a storm where most will get some snow, and 900' and up get near the 10" mark.....of course, we can dream of some dynamical cooling (which should occur early Sun. morn.)

NAM is probably overdoing the deepening, but near on target for temps.

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This will be a storm where most will get some snow, and 900' and up get near the 10" mark.....of course, we can dream of some dynamical cooling (which should occur early Sun. morn.)

NAM is probably overdoing the deepening, but near on target for temps.

 

I'm looking more forward to 55-60 and sunny on Monday. Already got my first outdoor run of the season planned.

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I'm looking more forward to 55-60 and sunny on Monday. Already got my first outdoor run of the season planned.

It'll be nice! But until then:

A STORM SYSTEM OVER KENTUCKY ON SATURDAY WILL MOVE TO THE NEW

JERSEY COAST BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN WILL INTENSIFY AS IT

PUSHES UP THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. THE STORM IS EXPECTED

TO PRODUCE ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE REGION IN THE

PROCESS...WITH THE BULK OF THE SNOW COMING SATURDAY NIGHT.

SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW IS LIKELY...BUT IT IS NOT OUT OF THE

QUESTION THAT SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS COULD TAKE PLACE. AT THIS

TIME...IT APPEARS THE GREATEST RISK OF SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS

WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...WESTERN

AND NORTHERN FINGER LAKES...AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

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LOL...wouldn't that be somethin'...

Those maps are hilarious! But, they do have value in determining where a model thinks there would be the jackpot totals and roughly the elevation it "sees" as being the threshold for significant accums.

The NAM is coldest, but all other guidance suggests h850's will be a bit too warm in most of CNY for a decent amount of time during the event. But really, if those models in future runs cool even a half degree...then things change quite a bit, both further eastward and lower elevations.

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