Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: End of Winter/Spring

[BuffaloWeather]

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT  

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON, NY  

255 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2014  

 

...A NWS STORM SURVEY TEAM HAS SURVEYED DAMAGE FROM A CONFIRMED  

TORNADO NEAR SMITHFIELD NEW YORK...  

 

A NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURVEY TEAM HAS CONFIRMED THAT A  

TORNADO OCCURRED NEAR SMITHFIELD IN MADISON COUNTY NEW YORK. THE  

TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN A 7:02 PM ON TUESDAY JULY 8TH. THE PATH WIDTH WAS  

235 YARDS AND THE LENGTH WAS 2.5 MILES. THE MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS WITH  

THE TORNADO WERE 100 TO 125 MPH RESULTING IN AN INTENSITY  

DESIGNATION OF EF2.  

 

THREE HOMES WERE DESTROYED AND FIVE OTHERS SUSTAINED SIGNIFICANT  

DAMAGE. THE STORM FIRST STRUCK A MANUFACTURED HOME WITH SOME  

ADDITIONAL CONSTRUCTION ON GOFF ROAD PRODUCING TWO FATALITIES. A  

BARN AND HOME WERE THEN DESTROYED NEXT TO THIS FIRST HOME ON GOFF ROAD.  

A TRAILER WAS DESTROYED NEXT TO THE BARN WITH ANOTHER FATALITY.  

ANOTHER HOME THEN SUSTAINED SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE FROM FLYING MISSILES.  

ALL OF THIS DESTRUCTION WAS ON GOFF ROAD. ON NORTHRUP ROAD A THREE  

STORY HOME WAS REMOVED FROM ITS FOUNDATION AND THROWN DOWN A HILL  

KILLING THE OCCUPANT. PORTIONS OF THIS HOUSE WERE THROWN INTO  

ANOTHER HOUSE. DAMAGE ON NORTHRUP AND GOFF ROADS WAS CLEARLY  

TORNADIC WITH LOTS OF THROWN DEBRIS AND DOWNED TREES. THE TORNADO  

WEAKENED AND PRODUCED EF1 DAMAGE TO A HOME ON BUTLER ROAD THEN  

WEAKENED TO EF1 AND ENDED ON ROUTE 31.  

[SouthernNJ]

Can anyone confirm that a Tornado warning was issued before the tornado actually went through? Seems like they were on top of it

From yesterday:

 

 

I put in a summary of what I reviewed with radar and warning observations in the

Convective thread last night.  Now that some observations have been confirmed,

I will mention additional info.  The Syracuse supercell produced a powerful

Microburst in East Syracuse, as well as Large Hail and an EF-1 tornado in the

New London area between Verona and Rome.  All events on the storm's path

were either SVR or TOR in warnings.  The QLCS south of it put down 2 tornadoes

surveyed so far, with an EF-1 just north of Utica and prior to that, the brief but

damaging EF-2 in Smithfield.  A SVR was issued at 6:46 PM, the tornado began

around 7:02 PM.  The TOR for northern Madison county, away from the affected

southern portion of the county, for the northern storm expired before the EF-2

occurred in any case.  The comma head bookend vortex formed rapidly at the

7:00 PM SRV scan, and was gone at 7:06.  At 6:54 PM, it had not shown any real

signs of producing.  This was a tough incident, BGM really did not have much of a

chance here.  It is very rare to have 4 fatalities in a brief tornado such as this, even

with EF-2 strength.  3 of the 4 deaths were in mobile homes, so that did not help matters. 

Just a really sad set of circumstances, and hope that the residents there recover from

the tragedy.

[dutch]

that post makes perfect sense, and i can understand that potential can be

high, and warnings were posted with high belief severe weather could happen.

 

when the supercell moved from syr to rome and beyond, media coverage was

solid and concentrated on warning people about that cell, and it did produce

damage. (i was intently watching the syracuse tv coverage).  as all of this

was unfolding, more severe thunderstorm warnings were being posted, but

there were so many it got to be a bit confusing.  I was watching the tv radar,

and an app on my phone which has my GPS location, and ready to take cover

if needed.  never did any of the radar images that hit smithfield look to be as severe

as the supercell images in intensity, yet i'm sure pros could see its potential

 

damage to the mobile homes was certainly devastating, but that 3rd home that

carried across the street is really incredible, as the storm left 3 or 4 other homes

between them on their foundations, albeit with damage.  i'd like to know more about

the construction of that particular home. 

[BuffaloWeather]

Waterspout on lake erie this morning

 

[dutch]

000
NOUS41 KBGM 101617
PNSBGM
NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-072-102030-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON, NY
1217 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2014

...UPDATE ON FATAL MADISON COUNTY NEW YORK TORNADO...

LOCATION...TOWN OF SMITHFIELD IN MADISON COUNTY NEW YORK
DATE...JULY 8, 2014
ESTIMATED TIME...702 PM EDT
MAXIMUM EF-SCALE RATING...EF-2
ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...135 MPH
MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH...235 YARDS
PATH LENGTH...2.5 MILES
BEGINNING LAT/LON...42.98N / 75.67W
ENDING LAT/LON...43.01N / 75.64W
* FATALITIES...4
* INJURIES...0

* THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO
CHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENT(S) AND PUBLICATION IN NWS
STORM DATA.

...SUMMARY...
AFTER CONSIDERABLE REVIEW OF FIELD NOTES...ALONG WITH GROUND AND
AERIAL PHOTOGRAPHS...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON,
NY HAS UPDATED THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TORNADO IN THE TOWN OF SMITHFIELD IN MADISON COUNTY NEW YORK
ON JULY 8, 2014. BEGINNING AND ENDING LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE
POINTS HAVE ALSO BEEN ADDED TO THIS REPORT.

THE SURVEY TEAM HAS DETERMINED THAT THE DAMAGE TO STRUCTURES AND
NATURAL OBJECTS IS CONSISTENT WITH A STRONG EF-2 TORNADO WITH
ESTIMATED WIND SPEEDS IN THE 125 TO 135 MPH RANGE.

THE TORNADO FIRST TOUCHED DOWN JUST OVER A HILL BEHIND A FARM
STEAD ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF GOFF ROAD WHERE IT DESTROYED TWO
MANUFACTURED HOMES AND A BARN. ADDITIONAL BARNS AND AN UNOCCUPIED
HOUSE WERE SEVERELY DAMAGED AT THIS LOCATION. THE TORNADO PASSED
BETWEEN TWO HOUSES ON THE NORTH SIDE OF GOFF ROAD WITH ONE HOME
SUSTAINING SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE FROM FLYING DEBRIS. THE TORNADO THEN
CRESTED A SMALL KNOLL ONTO NORTHRUP ROAD WHERE IT DESTROYED A
THREE STORY HOME SITUATED ON THE DOWNHILL SLOPE. THIS STRUCTURE
WAS LIFTED OFF IT`S FOUNDATION AND TOSSED APPROXIMATELY 150 YARDS
ACROSS THE ROAD INTO ANOTHER RESIDENCE. THE TORNADO WEAKENED
SLIGHTLY...BUT CONTINUED ACROSS NORTHRUP ROAD AND TRACKED THROUGH
FIELDS AND WOODED AREAS BEFORE STRIKING ANOTHER FARM ON NORTH
BUTLER ROAD. THE TORNADO DESTROYED AN OUTBUILDING AT THIS LOCATION...
AND ALSO SEVERELY DAMAGED THE RESIDENCE AND ANOTHER FARM BUILDING
ACROSS THE STREET. THE STORM WEAKENED FURTHER AS IT CROSSED CREEK
ROAD BEFORE DISSIPATING NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF BISHOP ROAD AND
COUNTY ROUTE 31 WHERE ONLY SCATTERED LIGHT TREE DAMAGE WAS NOTED.
LIGHT DEBRIS FROM THE DESTROYED STRUCTURES WAS FOUND UP TO 5 MILES
AWAY. THE TORNADO PRODUCED THREE FATALITIES ON GOFF ROAD, AND ONE
ON NORTHRUP ROAD. A DOG WAS ALSO KILLED AT THE RESIDENCE ON NORTHRUP.

THIS INFORMATION CAN ALSO BE FOUND ON OUR WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/BGM.

FOR REFERENCE...THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE CLASSIFIES TORNADOES INTO
THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES:

EF0...WIND SPEEDS 65 TO 85 MPH.
EF1...WIND SPEEDS 86 TO 110 MPH.
EF2...WIND SPEEDS 111 TO 135 MPH.
EF3...WIND SPEEDS 136 TO 165 MPH.
EF4...WIND SPEEDS 166 TO 200 MPH.
EF5...WIND SPEEDS GREATER THAN 200 MPH.

$

13
 

[BuffaloWeather]

Looks like another Tornado

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM EDT FOR CENTRALONTARIO COUNTY...AT 410 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TOINDICATE A TORNADO.  THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEARCANANDAIGUA...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. IN ADDITION TO A POTENTIALTORNADO...THIS STORM MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPHAND UP TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL.

[WNash]

This upper level low that has brought the cool air has also brought the first real lake effect weather! Lake Erie temp at Buffalo is 72F, right up there near the average annual max. I can see the clouds building nicely to the SW from North Campus towards Buffalo. I know we have a couple months until the steady lake influence sets in, but it's exciting to see the beginning of the season.

[BuffaloWeather]

This upper level low that has brought the cool air has also brought the first real lake effect weather! Lake Erie temp at Buffalo is 72F, right up there near the average annual max. I can see the clouds building nicely to the SW from North Campus towards Buffalo. I know we have a couple months until the steady lake influence sets in, but it's exciting to see the beginning of the season.

 Please no...It is mid July. Let me enjoy summer weather while it last.

[Snowlover11]

Non stop thunder and heavy rain up here in the north country. Massena to be exact.

[ayuud11]

First LER for the season!

 

 

LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...ON WEDNESDAY A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES FROM WEST TO EAST. THE
SYNOPTIC SYSTEM ITSELF WILL BE WEAK AND MAY ONLY PRODUCE A FEW
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT AREAS. THE LAKES
WILL COME INTO PLAY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY HOWEVER...WITH
VERY IMPRESSIVE LAKE INDUCED CAPE OF 1200-1500J/KG AND EQUILIBRIUM
LEVELS GREATER THAN 30K FEET. THE STRONG LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH SOME SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING. LAKE EFFECT AT THIS TIME OF YEAR
IS ALMOST ALWAYS ORGANIZED INTO CELLULAR CONVECTION RATHER THAN A
SINGLE BAND...GIVEN HOW DEEPLY MIXED THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS IN SUMMER.

OFF LAKE ERIE...EXPECT A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS TO EXTEND OFF THE
LAKE INTO THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AT 12Z WED. THESE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
DETACH FROM THE LAKE BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH THE ONSET OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LOW LEVEL
TROUGH...SPREADING SHOWERS EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
OFF LAKE ONTARIO...EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE LOCATED OVER THE LAKE TO
NEAR PRINCE EDWARD POINT AT 12Z WED...SPREADING EAST INTO THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. GIVEN THE
QUALITY OF INSTABILITY FORECAST...THERE MAY BE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITHIN THE LAKE BANDS AS WELL.

BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON EXPECT THE LAKES TO TRY TO FLIP...WITH LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS AND INSTABILITY IN THE MORNING TENDING TO EVOLVE INTO
DIURNAL SHOWERS INLAND FROM THE LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE
COULD STILL BE A FEW ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
ANY STORM MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING THE AIRMASS WILL STILL BE COOL
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A LAKE RESPONSE...WITH SHOWERS TENDING TO FOCUS
OVER AND EAST OF THE LAKES AGAIN. THERE MAY STILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY LEFT FOR A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCAL HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. OVERALL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE
LESS THAN THAT OF WEDNESDAY. FINALLY THURSDAY NIGHT THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO PULL OUT INTO QUEBEC...ALLOWING FOR SOME DRYING
TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO BE
DRY OVERNIGHT WITH PARTIAL CLEARING. THERE MAY STILL BE A LINGERING
SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DEPARTING
TROUGH.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND UPPER 60S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH THURSDAY
ADDING ON A FEW MORE DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COOL...BUT
CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL. EXPECT LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND LOWER 50S INLAND.

&&

[WNash]

We had some light lake effect showers a couple weeks ago, but this is a lot more like it now - a good convective storm passing through Buffalo now, with some lightning. 

[cny rider]

A little surreal for the middle of August.

I have been outside working on my chicken coops wearing a fleece top, windbreaker over LL Bean flannel lined jeans.

Intermittent lake effect drizzle and showers.

56F at midday.

[Flying MXZ]

A little surreal for the middle of August.

I have been outside working on my chicken coops wearing a fleece top, windbreaker over LL Bean flannel lined jeans.

Intermittent lake effect drizzle and showers.

56F at midday.

Yep, not much rain here but everyone wearing sweatshirts outside.  Most people saying it feels more like October than August.

[lakeeffectkid383]

I haven't posted on here in months since I moved to Rhode Island a few months ago, but Ive been in the thousand islands vacationing this past week, and today I'm in Saranac Lake and it's 1:22pm and it's 56 degrees with overcast and a light drizzle. Another thing that blew my mind is Id say about 20% of the trees have already began changing color up here, and I'm not just talking about the usual browning of leaves from dry conditions I'm talking about vibrant yellows and reds and oranges. Pretty surreal for mid August.

[BuffaloWeather]

I haven't posted on here in months since I moved to Rhode Island a few months ago, but Ive been in the thousand islands vacationing this past week, and today I'm in Saranac Lake and it's 1:22pm and it's 56 degrees with overcast and a light drizzle. Another thing that blew my mind is Id say about 20% of the trees have already began changing color up here, and I'm not just talking about the usual browning of leaves from dry conditions I'm talking about vibrant yellows and reds and oranges. Pretty surreal for mid August.

 

Yeah I saw you moved on Facebook, that is awesome congrats! Your going to have to keep us updated over here on the Nor'easters they get over there. Will keep you updated on the Lake Effect.

[cny rider]

High of 59F here today, lead grey sky most of the day.

Felt like Halloween weather.

[Flying MXZ]

Ice on my windshield this morning.  34.1° and dropping at 5:30. 

[Blizzard92]

32F is the official low here at Cornell this morning. We did not break the record from 1995 of 31F. Very little frost on the hill however.

[BuffaloWeather]

You guys alive?

[Syrmax]

Not sure what the lowest temp was here this a.m. but we had a light frost this morning in no. Syracuse burbs...I believe this is 3 weeks earlier than climo.

[ayuud11]

Yikes 

 

 

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
440 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014


NYZ010-041645-
/O.NEW.KBUF.FA.A.0007.141005T0000Z-141005T2000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NORTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...BUFFALO
440 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE
FOLLOWING COUNTY...NORTHERN ERIE. THIS INCLUDES THE BUFFALO
METRO AREA.

* FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

* OCCASIONAL LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CROSS THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER TODAY. THE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONSOLIDATE INTO A BAND OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT RAIN THIS EVENING
AND LAST THROUGH SUNDAY. THE BAND OF RAIN WILL OSCILLATE NORTH
AND SOUTH AT TIMES...BUT SHOULD SPEND THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME
IMPACTING NORTHERN ERIE COUNTY.

* RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE MOST
PERSISTENT AREAS OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN...AND LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IF THE BAND REMAINS STATIONARY FOR A LONG
ENOUGH PERIOD OF TIME. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED FROM BUFFALO INTO THE NORTHTOWNS. THESE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS MAY PRODUCE FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND SMALL
CREEKS.

 

[BuffaloWeather]

Yikes 

 

Perfect set-up for those north of Buffalo in this event. Saw quite a bit of graupel today while driving around.

[Buffalo Bumble]

 

 

Perfect set-up for those north of Buffalo in this event. Saw quite a bit of graupel today while driving around.

 

And with that northern Erie County just used up our quota of 1 significant SW flow lake effect event per year.  If only this was 1 or 2 months later...Now we're assured in northern Erie County of having no significant lake-effect snow event for the season. 

 

Seriously though, aside from me being grumpy, I'm pretty sure over the last 10 years or so every time we've had a major SW flow rainer in BUF during late Sept or Oct, that was it for the seaon (i.e., no signficant lake effect snow event over 6").  Stats might be interesting to check if I had time...

[BuffaloWeather]

And with that northern Erie County just used up our quota of 1 significant SW flow lake effect event per year.  If only this was 1 or 2 months later...Now we're assured in northern Erie County of having no significant lake-effect snow event for the season. 

 

Seriously though, aside from me being grumpy, I'm pretty sure over the last 10 years or so every time we've had a major SW flow rainer in BUF during late Sept or Oct, that was it for the seaon (i.e., no signficant lake effect snow event over 6").  Stats might be interesting to check if I had time...

 

What happened this weekend has no effect on wind direction in winter. But you have to realize the cold comes from the Northwest, not the southwest. So in winter you have to expect winds to be out of the W/NW 75% of the time.

 

Also, looking forward to this:

 

 

[Buffalo Bumble]

What happened this weekend has no effect on wind direction in winter. But you have to realize the cold comes from the Northwest, not the southwest. So in winter you have to expect winds to be out of the W/NW 75% of the time.

 

Also, looking forward to this:

 

Yeah, I was making a lazy attempt to consider analogs (my own memory) for what to expect after a significant SW flow rain event in the fall. 

 

 

 

 

[BuffaloWeather]

 

What happened this weekend has no effect on wind direction in winter. But you have to realize the cold comes from the Northwest, not the southwest. So in winter you have to expect winds to be out of the W/NW 75% of the time.

 

Also, looking forward to this:

 

Yeah, I was making a lazy attempt to consider analogs (my own memory) for what to expect after a significant SW flow rain event in the fall. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Haha. No problem! This forum was dead in the summer....Just happy to see some life in it now. Devin lives in Rhode Island now, but hopefully he keeps posting here. I will be making a Fall>Winter thread in the next week or two. I have a few videos from the March Blizzard I haven't shared yet. But I'm not allowed to cheer for winter until Nov. 1st.

[BuffaloWeather]

lol

 

http://www.buffalonews.com/city-region/weather/accuweather-predicting-the-polar-vortex-will-pay-us-another-visit-this-winter-20141015

[ayuud11]

Nice snowstorm for next weekend on the 0z GFS, it has KROC receiving 8" of snow.

[BuffaloWeather]

Nice snowstorm for next weekend on the 0z GFS, it has KROC receiving 8" of snow.

 

I saw that and welcome back to the forum. Will be starting a new thread in a few moments.