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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: End of Winter/Spring


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pretty similar to all the svr experts in that thread...looks like a biggie.  I'm hoping we can get some elevated convection Monday night through Tuesday here...nothing severe, of course.  

 

Thanks, I love following tornadic activity. I really want to go on a chase someday. I chased the one back in Cheektowaga back in 06 I believe. Was the first and only Tornado I've ever seen. This one was so easy to get to because it was only 3 minutes from my house. The one in 2010 I tried to chase but it was to far away, and by the time I go to near Darien it was gone.

 

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/tornado063006/

 

I think the corfu tornado was this one.

 

http://www.dailymotion.com/video/xf9ytq_iwitness-tornado-near-buffalo-ny_news

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Yeah Ive seen dozens of waterspouts but never a tornado.  Unfortunately, during the 2006 cheektowaga tornado, I was working at Ark Wholesale in Tonawanda.

 

Yeah I've seen quite a few waterspouts as well. I love watching tornadoes develop on streams/radar. Would also like to get to see a Hurricane live. My relatives recently moved to Fort Lauderdale, I am just waiting for a Cane to head in there direction and I will be over there. Haha!

 

BTW have been watching the weather channels coverage and am wondering why the Tor Con numbers are so low in what is supposed to be a really huge outbreak. They are anywhere from a 5-7, but I remember a few outbreaks being 8-10 quite often. Any reason why those numbers are so low when SPC is talking about upgrading to a high risk in there outlook for Sunday afternoon?

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Yeah I've seen quite a few waterspouts as well. I love watching tornadoes develop on streams/radar. Would also like to get to see a Hurricane live. My relatives recently moved to Fort Lauderdale, I am just waiting for a Cane to head in there direction and I will be over there. Haha!

 

BTW have been watching the weather channels coverage and am wondering why the Tor Con numbers are so low in what is supposed to be a really huge outbreak. They are anywhere from a 5-7, but I remember a few outbreaks being 8-10 quite often. Any reason why those numbers are so low when SPC is talking about upgrading to a high risk in there outlook for Sunday afternoon?

I'm not sure...I don't watch TWC much nowadays.  I was in Hurricane Ike in Bermuda in 2010.

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Oh nice! How strong was it when it hit you there?

It was a Category 1, but we got hit perfectly with the right front eyewall.  We had a 10-minute sustained wind of 59 kt (NHC official intensity in 1-minute sustained winds) and a gust to 81 kt.  House damage was fairly minimal given the high construction standards on the island.  It was pretty cool, but even the sound of a sustained cat 1 wind is pretty scary.  I couldn't even imagine what it must of looked and sounded like there in 2003 when Cat 3 Fabian hit them directly.  

 

Also, Ike was an exceptionally large hurricane, so we had sustained tropical force winds for like 24 hours...I believe it was about 600 nm wide when it hit.  

 

Damnit, it was Igor, not sure why I had Ike in my head.  That was the hurricane that hit Houston a few years ago.  

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It was a Category 1, but we got hit perfectly with the right front eyewall.  We had a 10-minute sustained wind of 59 kt (NHC official intensity in 1-minute sustained winds) and a gust to 81 kt.  House damage was fairly minimal given the high construction standards on the island.  It was pretty cool, but even the sound of a sustained cat 1 wind is pretty scary.  I couldn't even imagine what it must of looked and sounded like there in 2003 when Cat 3 Fabian hit them directly.  

 

Also, Ike was an exceptionally large hurricane, so we had sustained tropical force winds for like 24 hours...I believe it was about 600 nm wide when it hit.  

 

Damnit, it was Igor, not sure why I had Ike in my head.  That was the hurricane that hit Houston a few years ago.  

 

That is awesome. Some crazy videos last year from some guys on the forum who chased out in the Pacific.(A few Cat 4s/5s) Those guys are insane.

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I chased the high end EF3 with my ex that hit Springfield to Monson, MA in June 2011.  It dissipated before we got close.  But perhaps one of the coolest and eeriest things I've seen, twigs and housing insulation was lofted in the supercell updraft and fell on us some 40 to 50 miles away in Franklin, MA.  

 

That is crazy haha! The best stories are fish falling from the sky 50/60 miles away. :lmao:

 

How many tornadoes do you estimate will occur from Tomorrow through Weds? 300+?

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I would never forecast the number of tornadoes in an outbreak, but there should be a large number of tornadoes, and some of them violent,,,and unfortunately, deaths are also a near certainty.  

 

Here is a radar loop of the tornadic supercell I was referencing.  It's absolutely classic, something you would see in Oklahoma, and we haven't seen anything close to a textbook supercell like this in WNY since June 2nd, 1998.  It's the southernmost cell in Mass.  There's a strong debris ball evident as it passes Springfield and it strengthens north of Monson.

 

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/63/Jun_1%2C_2011_Massachusetts_tornado_radar_loop.gif

Jun_1%2C_2011_Massachusetts_tornado_rada

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Wow that had an incredible hook echo, that debree ball was awesome as well. (Well not really awesome for those living through it) Lake Erie is the culprit in not allowing enough instability in the atmosphere for our region right? It keeps the CAPE lower than those in other regions due to the lake breeze as well?

 

You've probably seen it, but this is the most insane tornado video I have ever seen.

 

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Wow that had an incredible hook echo, that debree ball was awesome as well. (Well not really awesome for those living through it) Lake Erie is the culprit in not allowing enough instability in the atmosphere for our region right? It keeps the CAPE lower than those in other regions due to the lake breeze as well?

 

You've probably seen it, but this is the most insane tornado video I have ever seen.

 

yeah, Lake Erie is definitely the major reason it's difficult to get higher end severe weather here.  Not only does it tend to keep instability lower in immediate Buffalo area, but storms often have to traverse the whole length of Lake Erie to make it here.  There is a major difference in severe frequency between here and Ohio and in some sense, that isn't really that far away.  BUF's best severe weather tends to come when the mid-level flow is out of the northwest.  

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Yeah that makes sense. Can a lake breeze off Lake Erie ever increase tornadic activity by increasing wind sheer with surface winds? I've noticed a corridor from Cheektowaga and to the northeast has had the most amount of tornadic activity out of all of Erie county, is there any reason for that?

The two cheektowaga tornadoes, the ones in 1987 and 2006, were both the result the lake breeze front increasing the vorticity near the thunderstorm.  

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So the lake breeze can at times strengthen a supercells circulation to result in a tornado that by conventional means would not occur?

I don't believe either thunderstorm was a supercell, just a local vorticity increase resulting from the lake breeze front interaction.  But yeah, I don't believe either tornado would have occurred without the lake breeze boundary there.  

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I don't believe either thunderstorm was a supercell, just a local vorticity increase resulting from the lake breeze front interaction.  But yeah, I don't believe either tornado would have occurred without the lake breeze boundary there.  

 

Thanks, that is pretty cool to know! Obviously lake breeze induced tornadoes have a cap on how strong they can be correct? Probably max at EF1 status?

 

EDIT: 1987 maxed at EF2

 

http://www.wbuf.noaa.gov/torlsr.htm

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