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3/12 T-Storm/Wind Event Obs.


JoshM

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I have a feeling there will be some unexpected power outages today.  40-50 mph gusts and there are many trees that are leaning on other trees and power lines from last weeks ice storm.

 

LIke the spot on highway 98 between Wake Forest and Durham where there are trees leaning over the road from the severe weather event we had in January. It's been two months and the DOT still have not taken down trees that are leaning on other trees over the road.

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RAH 10:30AM update...

 

THE BIGGEST CONCERN TODAY WILL BE WINDS AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE
FRONT. INCREASED MIXING THIS AFTERNOON MAY ALLOW SOME OF THE 35-
40KT WIND BETWEEN 925MB AND 850MB TO REACH THE SURFACE...ESPECIALLY
WITHIN SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG THE FRONT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
COME BEHIND THE FRONT WITH 10-12MB PRESSURE RISES (6HR) ASSOCIATED
WITH THE DEEPENING 980MB LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. THERE IS SOME
INHERENT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION LIMITING
WINDS...BUT THE STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SUBSIDENCE
SHOULD AID IN GETTING 40-45KT DOWN TO THE SURFACE
IN WHAT WILL BE A
MOSTLY WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. THUS THE WIND ADVISORY APPEARS TO
BE WELL TIMED.

 

That's some serious wind - especially for those areas affected by the ice storm. Ground is still pretty saturated, too.

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RAH 10:30AM update...

 

THE BIGGEST CONCERN TODAY WILL BE WINDS AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE

FRONT. INCREASED MIXING THIS AFTERNOON MAY ALLOW SOME OF THE 35-

40KT WIND BETWEEN 925MB AND 850MB TO REACH THE SURFACE...ESPECIALLY

WITHIN SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG THE FRONT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL

COME BEHIND THE FRONT WITH 10-12MB PRESSURE RISES (6HR) ASSOCIATED

WITH THE DEEPENING 980MB LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. THERE IS SOME

INHERENT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION LIMITING

WINDS...BUT THE STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SUBSIDENCE

SHOULD AID IN GETTING 40-45KT DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN WHAT WILL BE A

MOSTLY WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. THUS THE WIND ADVISORY APPEARS TO

BE WELL TIMED.

 

That's some serious wind - especially for those areas affected by the ice storm. Ground is still pretty saturated, too.

 

 

I'm actually hoping it will bring down some hanging branches and those that are just lying across other branches.  Better now than when I am riding underneath them on my mower.

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Showers and storms starting to build to the west of me. Looks like they're moving at a pretty good clip.

 

Yeah that line is getting better organized once it crossed the mountains and last few frames on radar. The clouds have really kept it cool so to say here in most of NC. If it wasn't for the clouds this line would already be alot stronger.

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=FCX&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

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AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL NC...MUCH OF VA...MD...EXTREME SERN PA...DE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 122021Z - 122215Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...LOW-TOPPED STORMS MAY BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT

FEW HOURS...WITH PRIMARILY A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. TRENDS WILL

CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH.

DISCUSSION...AN INTENSE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN CONTINUES TO EVOLVE

WITH SUBSTANTIAL PRESSURE RISES NOTED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH FALLS

AHEAD. WHILE INSTABILITY IS WEAK...RELATIVELY GREATER INSTABILITY

EXISTS ACROSS NC WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER. HERE...LATEST RADAR

TRENDS ARE SHOWING STRONGER ECHOES SUGGESTING AN UPTREND IS

POSSIBLE. THIS WARMER AIR SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT INTO VA AND AS THE

COLD FRONT CONTINUES RAPIDLY EWD...THE BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS MAY

SOLIDIFY FURTHER AND POSE A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS. THE LOW-TOPPED

NATURE OF THE CELLS SUGGESTS LITTLE HAIL THREAT...WHILE PRESSURE

FIELDS AS WELL AS MEAN WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS SUPPORT DAMAGING WIND

POTENTIAL.

..JEWELL/HART.. 03/12/2014

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