TalcottWx Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Nice ULL style burst there on the mesomodels, main slug of precip moves northeast then things blossom into nice snows across the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Where did you see that? I'm thinking 2-4".6" here I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Where did you see that? I'm thinking 2-4".zones 4pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 zones 4pmWell we may not go to snow until after 6z. There's not much QPF after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack66 Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 From the HRRR, it looks like at my location just east of Peterborough, I am only going to get about 2". Right now 35 and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 SUPER screw job here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 SUPER screw job here Somewhat serious question here... when is there not a snow screw job at LSC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Somewhat serious question here... when is there not a snow screw job at LSC?Well we got screwed along with a lot of northern VT. 700mb never even closed off. We over achieved on 2/13 and 12/15 actually. 11.6" and 9.5" respectively. Dry air and sh*tty snow growth killed us. I was on the low end thinking 15-20". NWS had 18-24" in their grids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 A lot of the models I thought had the axis south..it didn't give me a warm fuzzy feeling for the LSC area...although I admit I didn't look hard. maybe this batch moving into wrn VT produces there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 RAP is still coming out, but looks like it wants to take low over cape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Well we got screwed along with a lot of northern VT. 700mb never even closed off. We over achieved on 2/13 and 12/15 actually. 11.6" and 9.5" respectively. Dry air and sh*tty snow growth killed us. I was on the low end thinking 15-20". NWS had 18-24" in their grids. The 700mb low is definitely closed off... it's broad though. I do see what you're saying but I think what wound up happening is that the models were too generous with the precip they were developing along that mid level warm front. We saw that here to the south and you guys saw it to the north. There was a pretty large area of good lift/moisture (but, for example, in S VT and S/C NH a lot of what fell was sleet or rain). No matter the model or the event the max area of QPF always winds up narrower with tighter gradients than modeled. For an area up north with bad snow growth and dry air it makes matters even worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 The 700mb low is definitely closed off... it's broad though. I do see what you're saying but I think what wound up happening is that the models were too generous with the precip they were developing along that mid level warm front. We saw that here to the south and you guys saw it to the north. There was a pretty large area of good lift/moisture (but, for example, in S VT and S/C NH a lot of what fell was sleet or rain). No matter the model or the event the max area of QPF always winds up narrower with tighter gradients than modeled. For an area up north with bad snow growth and dry air it makes matters even worse. Yeah I hear you and agree. I was just using meso analysis to judge h7. But yeah even still, and don't call me a weenie, the RPM did a kick ass job in these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 How much do you have up there right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Rain right up to attitash ,nh Longitude and latitude with this one Lets see if maine mtns can take the cake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 850mb winds are east...isn't that a bad direction? I'd wait until winds back and that second batch of precip moves in. There was sort of a lull predicted....it wasn't all a continuous QPF bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 HRR has me drop ten degrees 11pm-2am. Ice Ice baby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 850mb winds are east...isn't that a bad direction? I'd wait until winds back and that second batch of precip moves in. There was sort of a lull predicted....it wasn't all a continuous QPF bomb.Can you see temps at the surface getting down to the freezing mark before the 850 isotherm moves east of us? TWC indicates that we have a couple hours of freezing rain and sleet and temps <32 before changing to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CardinalWinds Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 I've got to say, the analysis on this forum by a number of knowledgeable people...mets and non-mets alike...is simply outstanding. I'm not just talking about this storm, I'm speaking in broad and general terms over the time I've been reading this board...just awesome. With the quality of the posts on here and how the layman can read a good analytical post and literally spend an hour researching what is said, on many occasions at least for me, I'll bet a dedicated person could combine this board with said research and get close to passing meteorology courses with little else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Can you see temps at the surface getting down to the freezing mark before the 850 isotherm moves east of us? TWC indicates that we have a couple hours of freezing rain and sleet and temps <32 before changing to snow. Yes. It could be an hour or two of -FZRA or even FZDZ with some pellets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 I've got to say, the analysis on this forum by a number of knowledgeable people...mets and non-mets alike...is simply outstanding. I'm not just talking about this storm, I'm speaking in broad and general terms over the time I've been reading this board...just awesome. With the quality of the posts on here and how the layman can read a good analytical post and literally spend an hour researching what is said, on many occasions at least for me, I'll bet a dedicated person could combine this board with said research and get close to passing meteorology courses with little else. That's what it is all about. We joke and clown a bit, but the discussion is second to none. I still continue to learn stuff from various posts from met's with strengths in certain subjects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 That's what it is all about. We joke and clown a bit, but the discussion is second to none. I still continue to learn stuff from various posts from met's with strengths in certain subjects.learn to love the GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 The 700mb low is definitely closed off... it's broad though. I do see what you're saying but I think what wound up happening is that the models were too generous with the precip they were developing along that mid level warm front. We saw that here to the south and you guys saw it to the north. There was a pretty large area of good lift/moisture (but, for example, in S VT and S/C NH a lot of what fell was sleet or rain). No matter the model or the event the max area of QPF always winds up narrower with tighter gradients than modeled. For an area up north with bad snow growth and dry air it makes matters even worse. Well said and something that every weenie should remember for future events. Certainly a good rule to keep expectations in check. As far as r/s I really empathize with some of the NNE posters. Even as late as Monday I would have never thought that NNE posters would be concerned with p-type issues. Bummer but live and learn I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 HRRR takes the lift off the Delmarva up to ESNE in the AMhttp://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRRsubh/jsloopLocalDiskDateDomainZip.cgi?dsKeys=hrrr_subh_jet:&runTime=2014031300&plotName=1ref15min_t3sfc&fcstInc=15&numFcsts=61&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR%20Model%20Fields%20-%20Experimental&maxFcstLen=15&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=t3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 well maybe there will be a miracle and it will be a bit west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 what were the max totals in new england? Ended up with 13.8" at BUF...nice storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 MRG checking in with 20inches and still nuking...waiting for other ski resorts to check in...Loon and Cannon haven't updated yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 MRG checking in with 20inches and still nuking...waiting for other ski resorts to check in...Loon and Cannon haven't updated yet Yeah it's been coming down like this all night. Haven't been outside yet. Where r u? I'm just north of Lincoln gap at 1600'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Sugar loaf checking in with 13-16, Jay peak with 18-22... I'm back on the cp in MA, just interested in the totals at the ski resorts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nittany88 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Well we got screwed along with a lot of northern VT. 700mb never even closed off. We over achieved on 2/13 and 12/15 actually. 11.6" and 9.5" respectively. Dry air and sh*tty snow growth killed us. I was on the low end thinking 15-20". NWS had 18-24" in their grids. Lol I think I see 13"+ at LSC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Sugar loaf checking in with 13-16, Jay peak with 18-22... I'm back on the cp in MA, just interested in the totals at the ski resorts No worries. Crush job in the mrv. And the since about 9 last night, blower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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