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NNE's Revenge....We're back bi**ches! 3/12-13 discussion


mreaves

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We are definitely having some issues getting good dendrites and parachutes here. We have seen moderate snow at times, but the flakes are pretty fine. I look at the mesoanalysis and the 925 winds have a good northerly component to them for now but they are more ENE at 850. We may be seeing a little downslope/shadowing at work for the time being.

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Props to you Tip... you saw the potential for a storm a long time ago by the teleconnectors.  It may not work out like you wanted it too, but the teleconnections you mentioned put a strong storm on the east coast and that's exactly what happened.

 

Thanks, but actually I'm fine with this result. 

 

My interest in seeing snow packs burgeon wanes pretty quickly during February when both the pattern appears to want to start playing butt-bang games and/or just because "ocularly" the heightening sun-angles starts to trigger nostalgia for summer fares/affairs.   I go through a kind of indifference, meh, who cares what it does, and that's where I am now.  The futility of it and/or languishing in winter after even February 15th ...certainly now, becomes the loudest voice in the din of weather's chaos. That doesn't withstand an April 1982, or April 1997 type of rare scenario -- but those kind of set ups are in a class of their own where there is interesting science.

 

Also, as I have gotten older, I rarely get "disappointed" by the outcome of these things, in general. I've seen 18" of snow fall out of a 2-5" forecast when no advisory was in place.  I have seen an F3 tornado blast right down the business district of a Great Lakes city (Kalamazoo, Mi, May 13, 4:30pm, 1980).  I lived through the great Cleveland Superbomb of 1978; and since, feel as though I lived the February 5-7th event that same year, just from being proximal to so many annals and lore since moving to New England in the summer of 1984.  And all the weather that has transpired since ... I just at am a place where I can miss out and it's not like missing out. Everything comes around, leading us back again.  

 

What I was saying about Scott was funny to me. It is not how I really feel about things.  It was the idea that he could jinx an entire mechanical process in atmosphere. I was kind of hoping others would join in and we could make his day a living hell ... doesn't appear I was successful :(

 

Damn

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Thanks, but actually I'm fine with this result. 

 

My interest in seeing snow packs burgeon wanes pretty quickly during February when both the pattern appears to want to start playing butt-bang games and/or just because "ocularly" the heightening sun-angles starts to trigger nostalgia for summer fares/affairs.   I go through a kind of indifference, meh, who cares what it does, and that's where I am now.  The futility of it and/or languishing in winter after even February 15th ...certainly now, becomes the loudest voice in the din of weather's chaos. That doesn't withstand an April 1982, or April 1997 type of rare scenario -- but those kind of set ups are in a class of their own where there is interesting science.

 

Also, as I have gotten older, I rarely get "disappointed" by the outcome of these things, in general. I've seen 18" of snow fall out of a 2-5" forecast when no advisory was in place.  I have seen an F3 tornado blast right down the business district of a Great Lakes city (Kalamazoo, Mi, May 13, 4:30pm, 1980).  I lived through the great Cleveland Superbomb of 1978; and since, feel as though I lived the February 5-7th event that same year, just from being proximal to so many annals and lore since moving to New England in the summer of 1984.  And all the weather that has transpired since ... I just at am a place where I can miss out and it's not like missing out. Everything comes around, leading us back again.  

 

What I was saying about Scott was funny to me. It is not how I really feel about things.  It was the idea that he could jinx an entire mechanical process in atmosphere. I was kind of hoping others would join in and we could make his day a living hell ... doesn't appear I was successful :(

 

Damn

 

While it was a joke, the ensembles always being north and the way this PV behaved had me thinking ptype worries more than suppression. I know you and Will felt the same.

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While it was a joke, the ensembles always being north and the way this PV behaved had me thinking ptype worries more than suppression. I know you and Will felt the same.

 

Pretty much ... the N idea sailed for me three or so days ago.  Part of why was that the -NAO part of the discussion didn't really happen.  

 

NAO's the worst handled domain ...kind of annoying.  Anyway, I noticed the original operational ideas on this system, when they first got around to seeing it, was to put a substantial polar high into regions N of Maine ...more importantly PRIOR to this system's arrival. 

 

How's that working out for them --

 

In fact, there's pretty much a nadir in the ambient pressure pattern, if anything, which of course.... Actually it's the arctic front...but still, that feature was supposed to be well through the area by overnight, last night, but it just got fumbled around with in the guidance ... such that current scenario was not originally anticipated.

 

Which brings us back to why even bother looking at details on a depiction more than 4 days out... hell, 3 is probably the boundary. 

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BTV's afternoon discussion:

AS OF 339 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...FORECAST PLAYING OUT WELL SO FAR AND

NO REAL SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE. 984-MB LOW LOCATED

OVER SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TRACKING

EAST- NORTHEASTWARD TO NEAR NEW YORK CITY THIS EVENING...OFFSHORE

OF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE OVERNIGHT...BEFORE EXITING THE

REGION ON THURSDAY...ALL WHILE CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN TO

975-980 MB.

SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING

WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW STILL ON TRACK IN THE 5PM-5AM TIME-FRAME.

CENTRAL VERMONT STILL IN THE BULLS-EYE AS IT LIES JUST NORTH AND

WEST OF THE 850-MB LOW TRACK AND IN THE BEST FRONTOGENETIC

FORCING AND DEFORMATION ZONE. MAY EVEN SEE SOME THUNDER-SNOW THIS

EVENING AND FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT AS SOME ELEVATED CAPE IS NOTED

IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS SOME LIGHTNING OBSERVED UPSTREAM

OVER THE BUFFALO REGION. WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO INCREASE

WITH GUSTS FROM 25 - 35 MPH...PEAKING LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE

SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING

ELSEWHERE...ESPECIALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. THIS WILL CREATE

NEAR-BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH A WHITEOUT EXPECTED AT TIMES.

TRAVEL WILL BECOME DANGEROUS AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING AND

OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SNOW WILL TREND FROM A DENSE RELATIVELY LOWER RATIO SNOW (10:1)

THIS AFTERNOON TO A MORE HIGHER RATIO SNOW OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY

MORNING. RAMPED THEM UP TO ABOUT 17:1 EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS

SNOW GROWTH ZONE DEEPENS RAPIDLY. DID NOT GO ANY HIGHER AS STRONG

LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL ALSO ACT TO SHRED THE DENDRITES AS WELL

AS COMPACT WHATS FALLEN ON THE GROUND. LOOKING AT TOTALS

GENERALLY IN THE 1 TO 2 FOOT RANGE IN THE ADIRONDACKS...CHAMPLAIN

VALLEY...AND REST OF VERMONT...WITH 8-12 INCHES IN THE SAINT

LAWRENCE VALLEY. AS EARLIER NOTED PEAK AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE

ACROSS CENTRAL VERMONT.

IN ADDITION TO SNOW AND WIND...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL

THE REST OF TODAY...TONIGHT...AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES NOW RANGE FROM 15-25 DEGREES FOR MOST...WITH THE

EXCEPTION OF FAR SOUTHEAST VERMONT WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR

FREEZING. THESE WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY THURSDAY

MORNING. THIS COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIND

CHILL VALUES OF 0 TO -20 LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

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