eyewall Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 We are definitely having some issues getting good dendrites and parachutes here. We have seen moderate snow at times, but the flakes are pretty fine. I look at the mesoanalysis and the 925 winds have a good northerly component to them for now but they are more ENE at 850. We may be seeing a little downslope/shadowing at work for the time being. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Just a classic 925-850 low to mid level WF lift. Up and over...very simple, yet efficient precip producer. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=16# Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Just a classic 925-850 low to mid level WF lift. Up and over...very simple, yet efficient precip producer. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=16# If only we could magically track the surface low over LI lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Weenies excited over .05 snow qpf on back end makes me giggle MPM is only spot that looks truly interesting in sne to me, greenfield Chris's longitude and im pulling for his temps to really drop later in eve as qPF cranks also is as well. Snow and ice, isn't it nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 the low is already down to 984 mb per pa obs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 sorry, meant to post in the obs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Props to you Tip... you saw the potential for a storm a long time ago by the teleconnectors. It may not work out like you wanted it too, but the teleconnections you mentioned put a strong storm on the east coast and that's exactly what happened. Thanks, but actually I'm fine with this result. My interest in seeing snow packs burgeon wanes pretty quickly during February when both the pattern appears to want to start playing butt-bang games and/or just because "ocularly" the heightening sun-angles starts to trigger nostalgia for summer fares/affairs. I go through a kind of indifference, meh, who cares what it does, and that's where I am now. The futility of it and/or languishing in winter after even February 15th ...certainly now, becomes the loudest voice in the din of weather's chaos. That doesn't withstand an April 1982, or April 1997 type of rare scenario -- but those kind of set ups are in a class of their own where there is interesting science. Also, as I have gotten older, I rarely get "disappointed" by the outcome of these things, in general. I've seen 18" of snow fall out of a 2-5" forecast when no advisory was in place. I have seen an F3 tornado blast right down the business district of a Great Lakes city (Kalamazoo, Mi, May 13, 4:30pm, 1980). I lived through the great Cleveland Superbomb of 1978; and since, feel as though I lived the February 5-7th event that same year, just from being proximal to so many annals and lore since moving to New England in the summer of 1984. And all the weather that has transpired since ... I just at am a place where I can miss out and it's not like missing out. Everything comes around, leading us back again. What I was saying about Scott was funny to me. It is not how I really feel about things. It was the idea that he could jinx an entire mechanical process in atmosphere. I was kind of hoping others would join in and we could make his day a living hell ... doesn't appear I was successful Damn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Thanks, but actually I'm fine with this result. My interest in seeing snow packs burgeon wanes pretty quickly during February when both the pattern appears to want to start playing butt-bang games and/or just because "ocularly" the heightening sun-angles starts to trigger nostalgia for summer fares/affairs. I go through a kind of indifference, meh, who cares what it does, and that's where I am now. The futility of it and/or languishing in winter after even February 15th ...certainly now, becomes the loudest voice in the din of weather's chaos. That doesn't withstand an April 1982, or April 1997 type of rare scenario -- but those kind of set ups are in a class of their own where there is interesting science. Also, as I have gotten older, I rarely get "disappointed" by the outcome of these things, in general. I've seen 18" of snow fall out of a 2-5" forecast when no advisory was in place. I have seen an F3 tornado blast right down the business district of a Great Lakes city (Kalamazoo, Mi, May 13, 4:30pm, 1980). I lived through the great Cleveland Superbomb of 1978; and since, feel as though I lived the February 5-7th event that same year, just from being proximal to so many annals and lore since moving to New England in the summer of 1984. And all the weather that has transpired since ... I just at am a place where I can miss out and it's not like missing out. Everything comes around, leading us back again. What I was saying about Scott was funny to me. It is not how I really feel about things. It was the idea that he could jinx an entire mechanical process in atmosphere. I was kind of hoping others would join in and we could make his day a living hell ... doesn't appear I was successful Damn While it was a joke, the ensembles always being north and the way this PV behaved had me thinking ptype worries more than suppression. I know you and Will felt the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 While it was a joke, the ensembles always being north and the way this PV behaved had me thinking ptype worries more than suppression. I know you and Will felt the same. Pretty much ... the N idea sailed for me three or so days ago. Part of why was that the -NAO part of the discussion didn't really happen. NAO's the worst handled domain ...kind of annoying. Anyway, I noticed the original operational ideas on this system, when they first got around to seeing it, was to put a substantial polar high into regions N of Maine ...more importantly PRIOR to this system's arrival. How's that working out for them -- In fact, there's pretty much a nadir in the ambient pressure pattern, if anything, which of course.... Actually it's the arctic front...but still, that feature was supposed to be well through the area by overnight, last night, but it just got fumbled around with in the guidance ... such that current scenario was not originally anticipated. Which brings us back to why even bother looking at details on a depiction more than 4 days out... hell, 3 is probably the boundary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Which brings us back to why even bother looking at details on a depiction more than 4 days out... hell, 3 is probably the boundary. We could use more of this sensibility in the Fisher-Price NYC forum where we have posters arguing over R/S lines at h192. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 We could use more of this sensibility in the Fisher-Price NYC forum where we have posters arguing over R/S lines at h192. Ha ha, om goodness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 even i took a step back from the nyc forum, the bickering over long range progs among other things is just too much and outsidecof earthlight's or forkys input i feel like i am not sure i can believe anything i read lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 even i took a step back from the nyc forum, the bickering over long range progs among other things is just too much and outsidecof earthlight's or forkys input i feel like i am not sure i can believe anything i read lol Why would you be posting or reading a forum 300 miles to your south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 and the contradictory pbps are the worst Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 nyc forum is only about 80 mi due south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Most here do read other forums and nyc isnt even close to 300 miles away Why would you be posting or reading a forum 300 miles to your south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 how did you come up with 300 miles?? furthermore bc im south of the pike there is legit interest in threats which affect that forum....im not sure why i even feel like i have to explain this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Most here do read other forums and nyc isnt even close to 300 miles away Pics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CardinalWinds Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Why would you be posting or reading a forum 300 miles to your south? The social psychology aspect of this entire website is absolutely fascinating...at least for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 There really isn't much to be gained from the NYC Metro threads. Mid Atlantic isn't bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CardinalWinds Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 BTV's afternoon discussion: AS OF 339 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...FORECAST PLAYING OUT WELL SO FAR AND NO REAL SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE. 984-MB LOW LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TRACKING EAST- NORTHEASTWARD TO NEAR NEW YORK CITY THIS EVENING...OFFSHORE OF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE OVERNIGHT...BEFORE EXITING THE REGION ON THURSDAY...ALL WHILE CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN TO 975-980 MB. SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW STILL ON TRACK IN THE 5PM-5AM TIME-FRAME. CENTRAL VERMONT STILL IN THE BULLS-EYE AS IT LIES JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE 850-MB LOW TRACK AND IN THE BEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND DEFORMATION ZONE. MAY EVEN SEE SOME THUNDER-SNOW THIS EVENING AND FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT AS SOME ELEVATED CAPE IS NOTED IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS SOME LIGHTNING OBSERVED UPSTREAM OVER THE BUFFALO REGION. WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH GUSTS FROM 25 - 35 MPH...PEAKING LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING ELSEWHERE...ESPECIALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. THIS WILL CREATE NEAR-BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH A WHITEOUT EXPECTED AT TIMES. TRAVEL WILL BECOME DANGEROUS AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. SNOW WILL TREND FROM A DENSE RELATIVELY LOWER RATIO SNOW (10:1) THIS AFTERNOON TO A MORE HIGHER RATIO SNOW OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. RAMPED THEM UP TO ABOUT 17:1 EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS SNOW GROWTH ZONE DEEPENS RAPIDLY. DID NOT GO ANY HIGHER AS STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL ALSO ACT TO SHRED THE DENDRITES AS WELL AS COMPACT WHATS FALLEN ON THE GROUND. LOOKING AT TOTALS GENERALLY IN THE 1 TO 2 FOOT RANGE IN THE ADIRONDACKS...CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND REST OF VERMONT...WITH 8-12 INCHES IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. AS EARLIER NOTED PEAK AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS CENTRAL VERMONT. IN ADDITION TO SNOW AND WIND...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THE REST OF TODAY...TONIGHT...AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES NOW RANGE FROM 15-25 DEGREES FOR MOST...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR SOUTHEAST VERMONT WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR FREEZING. THESE WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILL VALUES OF 0 TO -20 LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Meso models do like a nice snowfall at the end of the storm north of the pike. Awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 The ice possibility is more interesting to me for my area than any snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 The acceleration of the cold after 11pm or so is pretty remarkable. It's almost has a cold tuck look in ern MA briefly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 The acceleration of the cold after 11pm or so is pretty remarkable. It's almost has a cold tuck look in ern MA briefly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 BOX tweaked their map a little. Extended the 2-4" swath south a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadomachine Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 BOX tweaked their map a little. Extended the 2-4" swath south a bit WHOOOO YEAH I'm gonna squeeze every inch I can out of this sucker. Blowing snow and 15 degrees tomorrow morning, lets just delay school and be none the wiser. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 GYX has me on the line 2-4"/3-6" I'll go with the under. These rain and then change to snow events don't usually seem to perform. NAM gives me only 2.8" even with weenie ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Just read gyx. Optimistic for con north. 6 to 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Just read gyx. Optimistic for con north. 6 to 12Where did you see that? I'm thinking 2-4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.