A-L-E-K Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 What's your final call? I think 6.1 sounds like a good number. I felt bullish earlier after looking at the 0z Euro / 6z GFS but think they've probably corrected a bit too far NW. LOT's map looks good IMO...the city will be right on the fringe of best banding and we could see a solid gradient across Cook Co. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Urgh. Why must my area always be on the line. weren't you just crowing about your 100"+ yesterday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 weren't you just crowing about your 100"+ yesterday? Almost ALL lake effect. Like I said, nothing to sneeze at (a lot of snow)...but it doesn't compare to an actual snowstorm. I think our biggest snowstorm in these parts this winter has been a 2 to 4 inch event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 SREF correcting south. Mean jumps for Chicagoland but only because it drops the mixing/rain members Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Are you saying the low pressure is further north currently than what models are showing? Urgh. Why must my area always be on the line. Go big or go home! Riding the line is the most frightening place to be... but also often provides the biggest pay off, with a bit of luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radioman Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Looks like a 994-995 L in N/C KS right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Go big or go home! Riding the line is the most frightening place to be... but also often provides the biggest pay off, with a bit of luck. True enough. Can give the best surprises. I knew I shouldn't have trusted the NAM runs last night! I even mentioned that they would probably jump back south! haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 True enough. Can give the best surprises. I knew I shouldn't have trusted the NAM runs last night! I even mentioned that they would probably jump back south! haha Oddly enough, I've found the model runs 36-48 hours out to be more accurate than the <24 hour forecasts with storms this winter... but the NAM is the NAM, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 SREF correcting south. Mean jumps for Chicagoland but only because it drops the mixing/rain members Has 50% probs for a "big dog" smack across the metro. Will post some of our new SREF images when I get to a computer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RJSnowLover Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Has 50% probs for a "big dog" smack across the metro. Will post some of our new SREF images when I get to a computer Solid probs....relatively speaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 I have a gut feeling DTW will get a foot of snow. Its time Would be the first since 2005 when central Wayne county had a report of 13.8”. Would be a long time coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 True enough. Can give the best surprises. I knew I shouldn't have trusted the NAM runs last night! I even mentioned that they would probably jump back south! haha There have been storms the models jumped south before they started. The March 1-2 storm the models all went south; even the NAM. The EURO was like a DAB and the NAM was like 1-2" ... I got 5". SREF & RUC were the only model to keep me in the 4-6" range. In short it all comes to NOWCASTING. The models are just that models. It's game time and just try to enjoy ... you can't control it but it is up to you to enjoy it!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Has 50% probs for a "big dog" smack across the metro. Will post some of our new SREF images when I get to a computer hard for me to get too pessimistic given how decent the SREF has done inside 36 hours this winter but duration and lack of support doesn't scream big dog right now. Plus these brief heavy banding events, despite rocking for like an hour or so, tend to underperform in the total department. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 12z NAM looks like it initialized "okay" for location but still too weak. Then drops it SE at 3hr. Don't get that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 There have been storms the models jumped south before they started. The March 1-2 storm the models all went south; even the NAM. The EURO was like a DAB and the NAM was like 1-2" ... I got 5". SREF & RUC were the only model to keep me in the 4-6" range. In short it all comes to NOWCASTING. The models are just that models. It's game time and just try to enjoy ... you can't control it but it is up to you to enjoy it!!! True enough. Thanks for the reminder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 12z NAM looks like it initialized "okay" for location but still too weak. Then drops it SE at 3hr. Don't get that. wagons south...pressure falls lend support to a south jog. enjoy the 9z SREF, doesn't get much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 The 12Z looks like it may be trying to move the direction of the low a little more from SW to NE rather tnan just East. This is just from looking at the orientation of the snow band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 NAM is another major step towards the globals...still a decent hit for Chicago south and east but rapidly backing off amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Through 21 hours, the northern stream shortwave is farther SE and the sub-tropical shortwave is farther west. I'll say waggons south it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 NAM is another major step towards the globals...still a decent hit for Chicago south and east but rapidly backing off amounts. Yikes for us NW...definitely more south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 for posterity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 I just give up if the EURO prior to last night pulls a coup, especially given how extremely awful it's been the rest of the season. Amazing that we've had over 80" this season and will quite possibly end it without one decently organized system (just grinders and progressively open waves). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Yikes for us NW...definitely more south and east. was a lock to happen, hopefully we can stop the bleeding but I think it's just getting started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RJSnowLover Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 NAM is another major step towards the globals...still a decent hit for Chicago south and east but rapidly backing off amounts. So LOT went too far with a WSW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 So LOT went too far with a WSW? it's still going to be a warning event (verbatim) for Chicago south which also has support from the Euro and GFS...so not really. LOT was right not to add far NW counties though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 11, 2014 Author Share Posted March 11, 2014 Looking more and more like a DAB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Looking more and more like a DAB. 1-2" for YBY, 4" for MBY, DAB for Geos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RJSnowLover Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Looking more and more like a DAB. Storm cancel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 NAM may never live this cluster**** down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Small change on the nam, went from 24" to 8" lol..not bad... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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