Stebo Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Euro is North of the 12z run, more moist too. Huge differences in Chicago from 00z, went from a DAB to around .4-.6" QPF for Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Euro is North of the 12z run, more moist too. Yep.. QPF amounts up this way have nearly doubled from the 12z. Went from about .25 at 12z up to .50 on this run.. Where it had shown .50+ in Monroe it is now showing .75+ there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Euro better here, but still shows big blob of heavy precip very close to the surface low tomorrow evening, with much less up in the cold sector. Still think it's under playing things further north tomorrow evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 This has rapidly become very exciting. March and April are Detroit's big dog months, so maybe, just maybe... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 BuffaloWx, your images aren't coming through for me (not sure if anyone else is seeing them). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radioman Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Confidence growing for a 6+ inch storm in Chicago and bigger storm (8+) in Detroit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 BuffaloWx, your images aren't coming through for me (not sure if anyone else is seeing them). Thanks! I have been posting them through a 3rd party hosting site because they don't auto copy from instantweather. =/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Curious: Don't think I've ever seen anyone post a TAF before. So if I may ask: What is TAF & what does this all mean? TAF stands for Terminal Aerodrome Forecast. It's a point forecast for the airports (within 5 mile radius of the runways) for the next 24 to 30 hours (ORD is a 30 hr TAF site). This forecast is for 6z (zulu or GMT) tonight until 12z Wednesday. Each FM (from) group is a forecast for a change in prevailing conditions at the indicated time. The first forecast group in each line is wind direction in degrees and speed in knots. The next group is visibility in statute miles, or SM. P6SM is unlimited visibility. If there is a restriction to visibility forecast, the weather causing it is listed next, or if there is no weather the next group lists the cloud coverage and height of the cloud bases. The TEMPO group is 50% or higher confidence in the forecasted conditions occurring at least occasionally (50% or more of the time) in a 1-4 hour time range. In the case of this TAF, it's indicating a start time to light snow at 4z- 11pm tomorrow evening with prevailing visibility 1.5 miles, followed by 3/4 mile visibility at 1am/06z. But then between 06z and 10z/1-5 am, the forecaster working the aviation desk indicated 50% or higher confidence in occasional moderate 1/2 mile visibility snowfall rates in snow and blowing snow (BLSN). Cloud ceilings are indicated to fall to 1500' (015) in the late evening to 900' (009) overnight, and VV006 in the TEMPO group means vertical visibility falling to only 600'. VV is used when there is no observable cloud base and it denotes the vertical visual range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RJSnowLover Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 TAF stands for Terminal Aerodrome Forecast. It's a point forecast for the airports (within 5 mile radius of the runways) for the next 24 to 30 hours (ORD is a 30 hr TAF site). This forecast is for 6z (zulu or GMT) tonight until 12z Wednesday. Each FM (from) group is a forecast for a change in prevailing conditions at the indicated time. The first forecast group in each line is wind direction in degrees and speed in knots. The next group is visibility in statute miles, or SM. P6SM is unlimited visibility. If there is a restriction to visibility forecast, the weather causing it is listed next, or if there is no weather the next group lists the cloud coverage and height of the cloud bases. The TEMPO group is 50% or higher confidence in the forecasted conditions occurring at least occasionally (50% or more of the time) in a 1-4 hour time range. In the case of this TAF, it's indicating a start time to light snow at 4z- 11pm tomorrow evening with prevailing visibility 1.5 miles, followed by 3/4 mile visibility at 1am/06z. But then between 06z and 10z/1-5 am, the forecaster working the aviation desk indicated 50% or higher confidence in occasional moderate 1/2 mile visibility snowfall rates in snow and blowing snow (BLSN). Cloud ceilings are indicated to fall to 1500' (015) in the late evening to 900' (009) overnight, and VV006 in the TEMPO group means vertical visibility falling to only 600'. VV is used when there is no observable cloud base and it denotes the vertical visual range. What a detailed, descriptive explanation. Thank you, sir. This'll actually come in handy as my mom's got a flight that's scheduled to leave ORD late Wednesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boogieman Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 This has rapidly become very exciting. March and April are Detroit's big dog months, so maybe, just maybe... Look... you weenies south of here can have all the snow you want, just as long as this crap stays out of Genesee county. It's BANNED here. Nobody wants more snow here. If it happens, people up here will go off the rails for real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Euro is North of the 12z run, more moist too. Huge differences in Chicago from 00z, went from a DAB to around .4-.6" QPF for Chicago. That's a substantial shift north for the Euro in this range. Have to think for the LOT CWA given the shifts north in all the guidance that the existing watch will be converted to a warning and warnings also hoisted for the Chicago area except maybe the far north and northwest (Wisconsin border counties). Even if amounts are forecast to be more high end advisory to lower end warning criteria-6" in 12 hours is the strict criteria- my guess is that weight will be given to the very strong winds developing, snow covered roads and snow still falling during the Weds am commute which will make for terrible travel conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Euro better here, but still shows big blob of heavy precip very close to the surface low tomorrow evening, with much less up in the cold sector. Still think it's under playing things further north tomorrow evening. Yeah I definitely agree, something still looks funky with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radioman Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Yeah I definitely agree, something still looks funky with that. Seems odd how the GFS/EURO basically go ESE from the St. Louis area down into S. IN with a strengthening low. NAM keeps it more ENE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 BuffaloWx, your images aren't coming through for me (not sure if anyone else is seeing them). same...NadaLook... you weenies south of here can have all the snow you want, just as long as this crap stays out of Genesee county. It's BANNED here. Nobody wants more snow here. If it happens, people up here will go off the rails for real.Everyone I talked to today felt the same way down here. It is becoming a bit much but I want that age-old record shattered. Today felt amazing though outside of the grass turning to quick sand and standing muddy water everywhere from rapid snowmelt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Wednesday Snow before 4pm. High near 26. Windy, with a north wind 16 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 39 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible If even just that panned out those winds would be ridiculous, if we get closer to 8 or more inches that's borderline b-word stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 What a detailed, descriptive explanation. Thank you, sir. This'll actually come in handy as my mom's got a flight that's scheduled to leave ORD late Wednesday morning. You're welcome- glad to help out. There's a few things I left out still but the more TAFs you look at, the easier they are to understand, and they are really helpful in being able to expect delays because anything below 3 mile visibility and 1,000 ft ceilings is considered IFR (instrumental flight rules) and usually causes problems before the acceptance rate for arrivals goes down. When winds are north or northeast or east, any ceilings below 3,000 feet actually cause problems now at ORD with the new runway configuration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Anyone.got euro text data for rochester ny. Kroc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 6z NAM coming in farther south but still going to go nuts with totals by the looks of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 NAM party is over for those in Chicago over to S.MI.. It has joined the others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 6z NAM coming in farther south but still going to go nuts with totals by the looks of it. Very deep storm tho.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 this is gonna be fun... TIPPECANOE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAFAYETTE 359 AM EDT TUE MAR 11 2014 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... TODAY PARTLY CLOUDY UNTIL MIDDAY THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...VERY WINDY. RAIN AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THEN RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW AND SLEET AFTER MIDNIGHT. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION UP TO 2 INCHES. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH INCREASING TO NORTH 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT. WEDNESDAY VERY WINDY. MUCH COLDER. MOSTLY CLOUDY. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW UNTIL MIDDAY. SNOW UNTIL MIDDAY...THEN CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 3 INCHES. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION 2 TO 5 INCHES. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. TEMPERATURE STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 80 PERCENT. WIND CHILL READINGS 3 BELOW TO 7 ABOVE ZERO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 NAM party is over for those in Chicago over to S.MI.. It has joined the others. Still looks great...12-18" for Detroit.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 NAM party is over for those in Chicago over to S.MI.. It has joined the others. 12+ from IL to Lake Erie through 39 hours...not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 12+ from IL to Lake Erie through 39 hours...not bad. Oh i know.. I was referring to the widespread 12-20 it was showing up this way. Nasty cut off on this run as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 DTX updated their grids to reflect 5-9" for Detroit metro. Up from 4-7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 . Best run yet for me locally. 14"+ verbatim there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Environment Canada issues small winter storm watch for the 5 counties with shorelines on Lake Erie. Calling for fzra and up to 6" of wet snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Lost 1" of QPF on the NAM, but it's not like that wasn't expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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