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March 11-12th Winter Storm Part 2


Chicago Storm

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000

FXUS63 KIWX 120904
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
504 AM EDT WED MAR 12 2014

 

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 456 AM EDT WED MAR 12 2014

SLIGHTLY SLOWER TRANSITION OF PTYPE GIVEN EXTREME NWD ADVECTION OF
WARM TW ALOFT WITH RAP13/LOCAL WRF AOA 0C THROUGH ENTIRE CWA THROUGH
07 UTC WITH SEWD COLLAPSE BLO 0C NOT REALIZED UNTIL ABOUT 13 UTC IN
FAR SERN TIP CWA. SUSPECT THOUGH THIS COULD BE A BIT SOONER GIVEN
EXTREME COALESCED DYNAMICS OF UPSTREAM SYSTEM HASTENING THERMAL
COLLAPSE. DUMBELLED UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALL CENTROIDS 120-140M/12HR TO
COHESIVELY MELD TO AROUND 200M/12 HR THIS AFTERNOON ACRS CNTL OH.
SUSPECT CONTINUATION OF UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS TO PERSIST OVR
NEXT SVRL HOURS ACRS SERN HALF OF CWA WITHIN MARGINALLY UNSTABLE MID
LEVELS PER RAP13 600-400MB LYR WITH COHESIVE N-S SLANTWISE TAP INTO
200-250 J/KG MUCAPE NEAR OH RIVER. GIVEN CONTD STRENGTHENING OF
LEADING WARM CONVEYOR BELT NECESSITATES CHC/SLGHT CHC MENTION SERN
HALF UNTIL 14 UTC WITH FOCUS THEREAFTER SLIDING EWD.
EFFECTIVE/EXTREME MOISTURE FEED OVERLAID DYNAMICS SUGGEST SNOWFALL
RATES 2-4 INCHES PER HOUR PSBL SPCLY WITHIN CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AND
ALSO KVPZ-KEKM-KOEB-KDTW LINE WHERE BEST OVERLAY OF DEEP/STRONG UVM
IN RESPONSE TO FGEN/AGEO CIRC REACHING THROUGH DGZ. SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS NWD WITH HIEST AMOUNTS...SUSPECT 10 INCHES PSBL IN NRN
MAUMEE BASIN/NERN QUARTER CWA WHERE NRN DEFORMATION BAND PERSISTS
FOR LONGEST DURATION.
 SIG IMPACT TO AM COMMUTE EXPECTED GIVEN TIMING
OF EXTREME RATES. WITH SFC LOW TRACK FINALLY AFFIRMED BY 00 UTC NAM
HAVE CONFIDENCE OF SOUTH OF I70 TRACK AND FOLLOWED
NAM/WRFARW/RAP13/PRIOR FCST FOR BLENDED TWEAKS. ALSO NOTABLY BETTER
CLUSTERING OF SREF ENSEMBLE SNOW ACCUMS AND MULTI MODEL COBB OUTPUT
FOSTERING INCRSD CONFIDENCE VS 24 HRS AGO. 12MB/3HR FALL/RISE
COUPLET WITH SFC LOW OVR SRN INCRS TO 15MB/3 HRS BY MIDDAY AS SFC
LOW REACHES SWRN PA...FUNNELING DEEP/NRLY GRADIENT WIND FOR
BLSN/DRFTG SN ISSUES INTO AFTN. RAPID TRANSITION TO ANTICYCLONIC LOW
LEVEL FLOW BY LATE THIS EVENING TO GREATLY RELAX FLOW...STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH PEAK OF 925MB THERMAL TROF ACRS CWA FOR
NEAR RECORD LOWS THU AM.

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I haven't gone out but my wife just left for work.  She said there is a good 5-6" on the car.  She is usually an under-estimator but looking at her foot tracks =  :snowing:  :snowwindow:   :mapsnow:

 

 

I was like

 

post-4267-0-05618700-1394619594_thumb.jp

 

when I opened my garage an hour ago and seen 3.5" so far

 

Fox 2 news call for 3-5" in our back yards!! :lol: 

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4 and change of super dense cement (easily sub 10:1) with a bottom layer of melt/slush, making for like the millionth 4" nuisance snow of the winter...looks nice and would have been great to see what 8"+ of this would have looked like.  Had a nice period of rates shortly after midnight. Can't wait till it melts.

 

Looking forward to seeing totals from the south side of the city back towards tmchgo...he might jackpot

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I was like

when I opened my garage an hour ago and seen 3.5" so far

 

Fox 2 news call for 3-5" in our back yards!! :lol:

Same here cause when I went to bed it was still raining.  In fact the dew point rose to 35F and I was actually being to wonder.

 

Hopefully this puts Flints Snowfall Record to bed!!!

 

FYI did you read this MD from the SPC:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0176.html

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INZ003>007-012-014-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-121745-
/O.CON.KIWX.WS.W.0006.000000T0000Z-140312T2100Z/
LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-STARKE-MARSHALL-
BERRIEN-CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND...
MISHAWAKA...NEW CARLISLE...WALKERTON...ELKHART...GOSHEN...
NAPPANEE...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...SHIPSHEWANA...ANGOLA...FREMONT...
KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...BASS LAKE...PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...CULVER...
NILES...BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...
CASSOPOLIS...MARCELLUS...STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...WHITE PIGEON...
MENDON...COLDWATER...BRONSON...HILLSDALE...LITCHFIELD...
JONESVILLE...BRYAN...MONTPELIER...WAUSEON...ARCHBOLD...FAYETTE...
SWANTON
516 AM EDT WED MAR 12 2014 /416 AM CDT WED MAR 12 2014/

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT /4 PM
CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

* TIMING...SNOW WILL CONTINUE AND BE HEAVY AT TIMES THIS MORNING.
THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

* SNOW ACCUMULATION...6 TO 10 INCHES... WITH CONSIDERABLE BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW. THE HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
NEAR THE INDIANA/MICHIGAN/OHIO STATE LINES.

* IMPACTS...EXTREME SNOWFALL RATES OF TWO TO THREE INCHES PER
HOUR...AND NORTH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 TO 40
MPH
WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. THE STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO CAUSE TREE BRANCHES TO BE
BLOWN DOWN...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN A FEW POWER OUTAGES.
VISIBILITIES WILL BE NEAR ZERO IN THE HEAVIEST SNOW. THE
MORNING COMMUTE WILL BE DIFFICULT AT BEST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW
ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN
EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...
FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY

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4 and change of super dense cement (easily sub 10:1) with a bottom layer of melt/slush, making for like the millionth 4" nuisance snow of the winter...looks nice and would have been great to see what 8"+ of this would have looked like.  Had a nice period of rates shortly after midnight. Can't wait till it melts.

 

Looking forward to seeing totals from the south side of the city back towards tmchgo...he might jackpot

Be gone by Friday. Fear the Big Dog I suspected would end our winter has run off to Buffalo. Bring on Spring.

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