blizzardof96 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 YYZ model summary below. Feeling pretty good with a 7-10" call. Thinking the RGEM is too dry at this point. Ratio's also look to stay around 13-15:1 once the winds shift to the NNE so ~0.4-0.6" of QPF can go pretty far in this setup. 18z NAM: 7-10" 12z GFS: 7.5" on 0.51" of liquid(15:1 ratios) 12z euro: ~0.6" of QPF 15z SREF mean: 14.7" 12z RGEM: 0.3-0.4" of QPF 12z UKMET: ~0.5" of QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Would love to have had models like today for the Chicago blizzard of 67. As I recall it was warm a day or two before and then the bottom dropped out. Don't have specifics, but when it is this warm at St. Louis with a good baroclinic zone setting up northwards, explosive things can happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 4km NAM guidance running about 5-6° above guidance in a 50 mile radius it looks like. Have to go up to Sheboygan to hit the 30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 YYZ model summary below. Feeling pretty good with a 7-10" call. Thinking the RGEM is too dry at this point. Ratio's also look to stay around 13-15:1 once the winds shift to the NNE so ~0.4-0.6" of QPF can go pretty far in this setup. 18z NAM: 7-10" 12z GFS: 7.5" on 0.51" of liquid(15:1 ratios) 12z euro: ~0.6" of QPF 15z SREF mean: 14.7" 12z RGEM: 0.3-0.4" of QPF 12z UKMET: ~0.5" of QPF I'll lock in my final call after perusing some of the 0z suite but I think my current 5-9" call is likely to be unchanged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Would love to have had models like today for the Chicago blizzard of 67. As I recall it was warm a day or two before and then the bottom dropped out. Don't have specifics, but when it is this warm at St. Louis with a good baroclinic zone setting up northwards, explosive things can happen. Chicago had a high of 65 on the 24th and 54 on the 25th (day before the snowstorm). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 11, 2014 Author Share Posted March 11, 2014 LOT... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 18z GFS looks further NE with the H5 energy. SfC reflection looks very similar to 12z though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterStorm294 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 18z GFS doesn't even show 6 inches for almost all of SEMI. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 4km NAM guidance running about 5-6° above guidance in a 50 mile radius it looks like. Have to go up to Sheboygan to hit the 30s. down to 39 on bank clock....dropping fast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 HRRR with narrow 6-8" right through chi metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 down to 39 on bank clock....dropping fast 37.3 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 I think ~6-8" is a good call for most of the GTA. Higher amounts towards Oakville/Hamilton. Whats your take on ratios? I think parameters are supportive of decent deformation bands to form like the Feb 5th event. Wouldn't be a Snowstorms post without mention of defo bands Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 37.3 here. nice...geos trying hard to wishcast the heat but we should be down close to freezing by onset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 GFS 18zGFS_031114.jpg I suspect this will be closest to reality of the globals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 HRRR with narrow 6-8" right through chi metro shows that nice northern weenie fgen band similar to the 4km NAM...we should have a better idea where that sets up in a few hours when returns start blossoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 11, 2014 Author Share Posted March 11, 2014 HRRR with narrow 6-8" right through chi metro Not gonna mention it's farther north than the previous run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 SREF shows a mean of 2 feet for KBUF. Definitely something wrong with them with this storm. Going to go with half the plume mean for storm totals of around a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Not gonna mention it's farther north than the previous run? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman1952 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Looks like I'll be missing this but so close. Funny how all the storms all this winter seemed to have went in the same track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Not gonna mention it's farther north than the previous run? They can look lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Funny how all the storms all this winter seemed to have went in the same track. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Temp is starting to plummet here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boogieman Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 LOL... Watch cancel for Genesee co... that's gotta hurt! I call 2-3" IMBY with three foot drifts! If we get more than that, I'm building a giant flamethrower! Edit to add... a snippet from DTX WWA text: * LIGHT RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW BETWEEN 10 PM AND 1 AM TONIGHT. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY. THE SNOW MAY BECOME BRIEFLY HEAVY AT TIMES WEDNESDAY MORNING... ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A OWES TO SANDUSKY LINE. Where is OWES exactly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 LOL... Watch cancel for Genesee co... that's gotta hurt! I call 2-3" IMBY with three foot drifts! If we get more than that, I'm building a giant flamethrower! 4-7" for Flint my call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Temp is starting to plummet here. Both Gary and Valpo at 39 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 8.7" for Toledo final call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 18z NAM and GFS are clearly too far south with the sfc low. Both had a barely 996mb low on the OK/KS line at 21z while mesoanalysis shows the low safely in east central KS. edit: arguably SE KS but it's well north of the state line. Considering both models are showing such a tight gradient on the northern edge this could come into play for a lot of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Honestly, I still like my adjusted call of 6-10" for Detroit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterStorm294 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 LOL... Watch cancel for Genesee co... that's gotta hurt! I call 2-3" IMBY with three foot drifts! If we get more than that, I'm building a giant flamethrower! Edit to add... a snippet from DTX WWA text: * LIGHT RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW BETWEEN 10 PM AND 1 AM TONIGHT. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY. THE SNOW MAY BECOME BRIEFLY HEAVY AT TIMES WEDNESDAY MORNING... ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A OWES TO SANDUSKY LINE. Where is OWES exactly? I just looked at the WWA...It says Owosso to Sandusky line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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