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March 11-12th Winter Storm Part 2


Chicago Storm

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And now IWX pulls the trigger
 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA357 PM EDT TUE MAR 11 2014...WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY....HEAVY SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTOWEDNESDAY AS A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS EAST THROUGHFAR SOUTHERN INDIANA AND OHIO. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS A PERIODOF RAIN BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEASTDURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. A PERIOD OF SLEET IS ALSOEXPECTED...ESPECIALLY DURING THE TRANSITION. STORM TOTAL SNOWFALLFROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IS GENERALLYEXPECTED TO BE IN THE 5 TO 9 INCH RANGE. NORTH WINDS OF 20 TO 30MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 TO 40 MPH WILL CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING ANDDRIFTING SNOW RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ONWEDNESDAY. THE STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO CAUSE TREE BRANCHES TO BEBLOWN DOWN... POSSIBLY RESULTING IN A FEW POWER OUTAGES.INZ003>007-012-014-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-120400-/O.UPG.KIWX.WS.A.0005.140312T0400Z-140312T2100Z//O.NEW.KIWX.WS.W.0006.140312T0400Z-140312T2100Z/LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-STARKE-MARSHALL-BERRIEN-CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND...MISHAWAKA...NEW CARLISLE...WALKERTON...ELKHART...GOSHEN...NAPPANEE...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...SHIPSHEWANA...ANGOLA...FREMONT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...BASS LAKE...PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...CULVER...NILES...BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...MARCELLUS...STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...WHITE PIGEON...MENDON...COLDWATER...BRONSON...HILLSDALE...LITCHFIELD...JONESVILLE...BRYAN...MONTPELIER...WAUSEON...ARCHBOLD...FAYETTE...SWANTON357 PM EDT TUE MAR 11 2014 /257 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014/...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT EDT /11 PM CDT/TONIGHT TO 5 PM EDT /4 PM CDT/ WEDNESDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTHERN INDIANA HAS ISSUED AWINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WHICH ISIN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT EDT /11 PM CDT/ TONIGHT TO 5 PM EDT /4 PMCDT/ WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.HAZARDOUS WEATHER... * TIMING...RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND CHANGE TO   SNOW AROUND MIDNIGHT AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY   MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. * SNOW ACCUMULATION...6 TO 9 INCHES... WITH CONSIDERABLE BLOWING   AND DRIFTING SNOW. * IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES OF ONE TO TWO INCHES PER   HOUR...AND NORTH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 TO 40   MPH WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AND   WEDNESDAY. THE STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO CAUSE TREE BRANCHES TO BE   BLOWN DOWN...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN A FEW POWER OUTAGES.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHERCONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOWARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN ANEMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.&&$$
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ILX is upgrading me to a warning.

FXUS63 KILX 112015
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
315 PM CDT Tue Mar 11 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 305 PM CDT Tue Mar 11 2014

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday

Back to winter late tonight through Wednesday with the potential
for heavy wet snow over parts of our northern counties along with
gusty winds into the daylight hours of Wednesday. Will upgrade
to a warning for our extreme north/northeast counties which
includes Marshall, Woodford and McLean and extend the Winter
Weather Advisory southward a row of counties for late tonight
through Wednesday morning.

Models in general agreement in taking the surface low across
southern Illinois late tonight and Wednesday morning putting our
far northern counties in line for some significant snow totals
by Wednesday morning. However, NAM and GFS forecast soundings
showing mostly rain for this evening, which will translate over
to wet snow a little before midnight northwest, and after midnight
across the east. Very impressive and deep omega coninciding with
deep moisture in the favored dendritic zone along and north of
the I74 corridor in the 06z to 10z time frame and that will be the
time frame where heavy wet snow will occur with a few areas seeing
snowfall rates of 2 inches per hour. With the explosive forcing
seen in the dendritic layer late tonight, along with some negative
EPV present, expect the atmospheric column to cool significantly
enough for snow to start accumulating quickly, usually quicker
than expected. Wouldn't be surprised to see some lightning strikes
in the snow band late this evening into the overnight hours as
well to complicate matters. One negative factor for some greater
than 8 inch snow amounts will be the speed of the system as all
models suggest a fairly rapid decrease in omega/moisture from
northwest to southeast starting around 12z Wednesday.

Wind will be another factor and a strong pressure fall/rise
couplet seen on model data late tonight as the surface low tracks
east across southern Illinois. At this time, it appears our surface
wind gusts will be borderline wind advisory criteria, so for now,
will hold off any additional advisories. The stronger pressure
rises late tonight will be over south central through southeast
Illinois so that would be the area to watch.

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18z NAM got wetter for YYZ. Solidly 0.6-0.7".

I think ~6-8" is a good call for most of the GTA. Higher amounts towards Oakville/Hamilton.

Whats your take on ratios? I think parameters are supportive of decent deformation bands to form like the Feb 5th event.

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3-6" here in advisory text but go 2 miles east into DuPage co and it's 4-8" locally higher. One of those cases where that gradient could happen.

 

I'm just a few miles east of you, and P&C showing 3-5 inches.  Looks like all of the P&C for DuPage is showing 3-5 from what I can see.  The county forecast is only place I see 4-7 tonight and up to an inch tomorrow.

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