Thundersnow12 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 996mb contour as of 19z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 70% chance at 8+ for Detriot Kinda surprised to see that. Hoping for the best but it isn't very hopeful looking outside with temps in the low 50's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Dang, up to 55 at KDET. But DTX has their grids upped to 6-10" for the city proper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Don't know if this was posted yet, looks like it cut back slightly on totals here down to 10-15 cm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 back down under 50 here as we trend towards freezing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Kinda surprised to see that. Hoping for the best but it isn't very hopeful looking outside with temps in the low 50's. The old saying, "Calm before the Storm" certainly fits this one. 50 and sunny to teens and foot of snow with 40+ mph winds...Only in the Great Lakes region! Can't say I'm not enjoying this warmup. Feels incredible outside! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
extremewx52 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 You can see the moisture surge coming from the gulf in the cu field on visible satellite. Time to rock and roll Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 59 here and we're probably not done rising. I know we bash the models but imagine trying to forecast something like this without the assistance of computers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eureka22 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 I have to wonder if ILX will do any upgrading with the new WPC forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Reminds me a lot of April 5-6th, 2009. Temps in the 50's dropping into the 30's overnight with 5-8" of snow across SEMI. Temps were much more marginal then than are forecasted here, but we'll see if those numbers hold true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 KBuf lock and loaded. STORM TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS OF 12-16 INCHES ARE NOW EXPECTED IN MOSTAREAS WITH SOME 18 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF LAKEONTARIO INCLUDING THE GREATER ROCHESTER AREA WHERE LAKE ENHANCEMENTWILL DEVELOP. IF THE CURRENT PTYPE FORECAST HOLDS…AMOUNTS WILL BECONSIDERABLY LOWER NEAR THE PA STATE LINE. HOURLY SNOWFALL RATES MAYREACH OR EXCEED 2 INCHES PER HOUR LOCALLY IN ANY MESOSCALE BANDINGTHAT DEVELOPS. SOME THUNDER AND LIGHTNING IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTIONWITH MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SLANTWISE OR EVENUPRIGHT CONVECTION. SOME MODEL POINT SOUNDINGS SHOW AS MUCH AS80J/KG OF CAPE FOR PARCELS ROOTED IN THE 700MB LAYER. NORTH WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE STRONG ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONAND EVENING PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND NEARBLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES…ESPECIALLY WITHIN 20 MILES OF THESOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 srefFLT_prec_snowmn12_024.gif Mom in Lake county IN looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Holy cow, CLE warning text for Toledo vicinity... ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDTWEDNESDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CLEVELAND HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WARNING FOR SNOW...BLOWING SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAINWHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY. THE WINTERSTORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...ALONG WITHGLAZE OF ICE.* TIMING...ANY EVENING RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHTTONIGHT. AS THE RAIN TRANSITIONS TO SNOW THERE COULD BE A PERIODOF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AS WELL. THE HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULDOCCUR FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND THENTAPER OFF INTO THE EVENING.* WINDS...NORTH 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.* IMPACTS...SNOW ALONG WITH A GLAZE OF ICE WILL SLOW TRAVEL ACROSSTHE REGION AND MAKE ANY UNTREATED SURFACES SLICK. IN ADDITIONSTRONG WINDS WILL CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 KBuf lock and loaded. STORM TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS OF 12-16 INCHES ARE NOW EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS WITH SOME 18 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO INCLUDING THE GREATER ROCHESTER AREA WHERE LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL DEVELOP. IF THE CURRENT PTYPE FORECAST HOLDS…AMOUNTS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LOWER NEAR THE PA STATE LINE. HOURLY SNOWFALL RATES MAY REACH OR EXCEED 2 INCHES PER HOUR LOCALLY IN ANY MESOSCALE BANDING THAT DEVELOPS. SOME THUNDER AND LIGHTNING IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SLANTWISE OR EVEN UPRIGHT CONVECTION. SOME MODEL POINT SOUNDINGS SHOW AS MUCH AS 80J/KG OF CAPE FOR PARCELS ROOTED IN THE 700MB LAYER. NORTH WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE STRONG ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES…ESPECIALLY WITHIN 20 MILES OF THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO. You guys have had a hell of a winter. Enjoy this one, and grab some video if there's thundersnow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 DTX now has 4-10" in my grids... Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 The 18z NAM may try to nudge north looking at 500mb through 12 hours...has a slightly slower northern branch S/W and faster STJ S/W. It's not much but may make a small difference for those on the fringe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 A little bit of everything in my zone ..... TONIGHT...WINDY. RAIN AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THEN RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW...SLEET AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 3 INCHES. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 NAM getting close to DAB for ORD weenie RUC also backing way off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Looks a hair south at the sfc at 12hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 NAM getting close to DAB for ORD 17z HRRR with 4" or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 11, 2014 Author Share Posted March 11, 2014 NAM getting close to DAB for ORD It's the same as the 12z around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 DTX goes Winter Storm Warning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI344 PM EDT TUE MAR 11 2014...A WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY....A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIOVALLEY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM STRENGTHENS...MUCHCOLDER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO SOUTHERN MICHIGAN UNDER INCREASINGNORTHEASTERLY WINDS. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS RAIN BUTTRANSITION TO ALL SNOW BETWEEN 10 PM AND 2 AM. THE SNOW WILL THENPERSIST INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BECOMING HEAVY IN METRODETROIT RIGHT AT THE MORNING RUSH HOUR. TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONSARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 2 AND 6 INCHES BETWEEN M 46 AND M59...AND BETWEEN 6 AND 9 INCHES SOUTH OF M 59. THOSE STRONGNORTHEAST WINDS WILL CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW THROUGH THE DAY.MIZ063-069-070-075-076-082-083-120345-/O.UPG.KDTX.WS.A.0003.140312T0400Z-140313T0000Z//O.NEW.KDTX.WS.W.0003.140312T0600Z-140312T1900Z/ST. CLAIR-OAKLAND-MACOMB-WASHTENAW-WAYNE-LENAWEE-MONROE-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PORT HURON...PONTIAC...WARREN...ANN ARBOR...DETROIT...ADRIAN...MONROE344 PM EDT TUE MAR 11 2014...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 3 PM EDTWEDNESDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED AWINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2AM TO 3 PM EDT WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER INEFFECT.HAZARDOUS WEATHER... * SCATTERED AREAS OF RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2 AM. THE SNOW WILL BECOME HEAVY TOWARD DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. * VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCE TO A HALF MILE OR LESS FROM FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW DURING THE MORNING RUSH HOUR AT THE PEAK OF THE EVENT. * TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE 6 TO 9 INCHES. * WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND INCREASE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. NORTHEASTERLY WIND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL CAUSE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW. * TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... WHILE WIND CHILL READINGS DROP TO AROUND ZERO.IMPACTS... * ROADS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED AND VERY HAZARDOUS. * VISIBILITIES WILL BECOME POOR DUE TO BOTH FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... * A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS. * PREPARE...PLAN...AND STAY INFORMED. VISIT HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/RR8&&$$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 It's the same as the 12z around here. 1-2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 LOL nam.... Nam is trying to go back to that crazy solution from last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Latest SREF mean still shows DTW getting a foot. Not nearly as big of a dropoff as I was expecting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Would be interesting to hear the reasoning on why some offices are going winter storm warning and not blizzard warning. The winds look to be sufficient so maybe it's due to uncertainties on how low visibility will get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Latest SREF mean still shows DTW getting a foot. Not nearly as big of a dropoff as I was expecting. Rare for the SREF to absolutely bomb this close in so that number within a couple inches is probably a good bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Insane gradient on the NAM. .10" liquid in northern Cook to almost an 1" of liquid southern cook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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