Northern_IN_Wx Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Thinking I'll end up with around 6" of cement out of this. Earlier phase and less rain to start and this could have been a big one. Better than nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Yeah LEhS does not look favorable for our shoreline. Delta Ts fall short. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Looks like the LAF/TOL call is holding strong.. Meh, I've all but given up on the heaviest band being here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Euro coming in juiced.. Nice hit for S/E Mi.. Juiced relative to the 0z run or the recent run of turds laid by the other models at 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Yeah the Euro is wetter here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Nice write up by Ricky. Nice to have him as a regular here too. Still seems weird seeing the warning in portion of LOT as the only warning so far. I'm assuming offices are waiting for the afternoon package to make any changes. They know idiots around her can't drive, whether it's the 1st, 8th or 30th snow. This way, it's the "we told you so" approach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 10-12" from Euro.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 For everyone's interest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Yeah the Euro is wetter here. wasn't it .5 or so at 0z? EDIT: looks like the last few GFS runs for our area. Decent .5 consensus for MBY which accounting for poor ratios, warm surfaces, qpf lost to initial mixing is 3-4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 So the EURO and NAM/GFS basically switched. Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 wasn't it .5 or so at 0z? EDIT: looks like the last few GFS runs for our area. Decent .5 consensus for MBY which accounting for poor ratios, warm surfaces, qpf lost to initial mixing is 3-4". .50-55" liquid at ARR/DPA/ORD this run. 0z run was less I believe but don't know by how much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eureka22 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 DVN continues to tease. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL1255 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014.UPDATE...ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 4-5 HOURS WILL BE THE CRITICALTIME FRAME IN WHAT OCCURS TONIGHT. THE CURRENT HEADLINE SET UP MAYBE POTENTIALLY MODIFIED IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WHAT THATMODIFICATION WILL BE HAS NOT YET BEEN DETERMINED.THE WARM FRONT REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI INTOCENTRAL ILLINOIS. SOUTH OF THE FRONT IT HAS GOTTEN QUITE WARM.CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST NOT MUCH MOVEMENT IN THE FRONT FOR THEREMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. THUS MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE FAR SOUTHMAY BE TOO WARM. RAIN/SPRINKLES SHOULD BEGIN BREAKING OUT ACROSSTHE FAR NORTH SHORTLY AFTER MID AFTERNOON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 So the EURO and NAM/GFS basically switched. Nice. they're all within a tenth or so QPF wise for Chicago at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 DVN continues to tease. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 1255 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014 EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 4-5 HOURS WILL BE THE CRITICAL TIME FRAME IN WHAT OCCURS TONIGHT. THE CURRENT HEADLINE SET UP MAY BE POTENTIALLY MODIFIED IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WHAT THAT MODIFICATION WILL BE HAS NOT YET BEEN DETERMINED. THE WARM FRONT REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. SOUTH OF THE FRONT IT HAS GOTTEN QUITE WARM. CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST NOT MUCH MOVEMENT IN THE FRONT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. THUS MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE FAR SOUTH MAY BE TOO WARM. RAIN/SPRINKLES SHOULD BEGIN BREAKING OUT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH SHORTLY AFTER MID AFTERNOON. the hinted modification might be to drop the headlines Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 For everyone's interest. 12zEURO_031114.jpg Looks about the same here...maybe wetter by a few hundredths. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 DVN continues to tease. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 1255 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014 EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 4-5 HOURS WILL BE THE CRITICAL TIME FRAME IN WHAT OCCURS TONIGHT. THE CURRENT HEADLINE SET UP MAY BE POTENTIALLY MODIFIED IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WHAT THAT MODIFICATION WILL BE HAS NOT YET BEEN DETERMINED. THE WARM FRONT REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. SOUTH OF THE FRONT IT HAS GOTTEN QUITE WARM. CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST NOT MUCH MOVEMENT IN THE FRONT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. THUS MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE FAR SOUTH MAY BE TOO WARM. RAIN/SPRINKLES SHOULD BEGIN BREAKING OUT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH SHORTLY AFTER MID AFTERNOON. In other words, they haven't a clue of what to expect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 wasn't it .5 or so at 0z? EDIT: looks like the last few GFS runs for our area. Decent .5 consensus for MBY which accounting for poor ratios, warm surfaces, qpf lost to initial mixing is 3-4". Convective elements? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Juiced relative to the 0z run or the recent run of turds laid by the other models at 12z? Raw numbers show 0.61" QPF in the GTA from the 12z Euro. Up 0.04" from the 0z, lol. I think 6-8" is a good call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 For those worried about melting, it helps that this is a night event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 12z NSSL WRF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Raw numbers show 0.61" QPF in the GTA from the 12z Euro. Up 0.04" from the 0z, lol. I think 6-8" is a good call. Yeah, my 7-11" call is too generous at this point. I'll go with 5-9" as a second call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 11, 2014 Author Share Posted March 11, 2014 wasn't it .5 or so at 0z? 0z was 0.30-0.40", 12z is as seen above...0.50"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 EURO has most of Chicagoland at or slightly above freezing still at 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Convective elements? IMO, well south of our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 11, 2014 Author Share Posted March 11, 2014 IMO, well south of our area Not if the FGEN banding sets up as some guidance shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Not if the FGEN banding sets up as some guidance shows. sure, some of the guidance shows that...it should be pretty clear once precip starts blossoming what the northern extent will be. some minor good news, but the RAP is just a little bit stronger than a few runs back....so we might have stopped the bleeding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Looks like the backup RUC has a better on the sfc low position than the RAP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Looks like the backup RUC has a better on the sfc low position than the RAP. still looks a little NW on heaviest accums but totals are reasonable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 How does the Euro look for the Grand Rapids area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 I can never tell if Joe is riding his DAB call or re-thinking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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