ravensrule Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Where`s the Control ? Don't think it's out for another 30 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Easily can track a little more NW(like the ggem). Good spot to be in, this far out. Perhaps the 18z GFS will show improvements aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 While the PV is a player, one of the main issues is how much energy comes out of the west, that to me will decide how far north this will come. A combination of the two obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 The Village idiot model was off the NC coast as well. Probably a good sign that the Euro ensemble mean is too far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Control run is out, matches up with the op pretty well. ~3-6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 The Village idiot model was off the NC coast as well. Probably a good sign that the Euro ensemble mean is too far south. Village idiot model i can only assume is the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Upton still going with 30% for Sunday night/Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Village idiot model i can only assume is the NAM? Nope, wrong village. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Village idiot model i can only assume is the NAM? Or the gfs or the JMA or the dgex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Go on the ecmwf.int website and look at the 12z runs from Friday-Saturday for todays storm, compare them to todays 12z initialization run, it shows how much can change on the EURO in a 4-5 day lead time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Go on the ecmwf.int website and look at the 12z runs from Friday-Saturday for todays storm, compare them to todays 12z initialization run, it shows how much can change on the EURO in a 4-5 day lead time. It's mostly the hanging too much energy back to the SW bias . Otherwise, it was very close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 The 18z NAM is going to eject the energy eastward again. Holds back virtually nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 It's mostly the hanging too much energy back to the SW bias . Otherwise, it was very close. Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_North32America_24.gif Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_North32America_144.gif Look at the run before that as well.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 That run you posted Bluewave had the low over Philly, today the low was over the Ohio Valley at 12z....My point is that we have a pretty good setup, and it wouldn't take a big improvement for it to show a pretty good snowstorm for Philly-NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 The 18z NAM looks ridiculously good at the end of its run. Major phase over the four corners region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Yanks, where do you get the CMC ensembles? How did they look for Philly/NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Yanks, where do you get the CMC ensembles? How did they look for Philly/NYC They look great for Pompton Plains and terrible for Philly and NYC StormVista, they are pretty awesome looking for whole area, support the op well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Yanks, where do you get the CMC ensembles? How did they look for Philly/NYC About 1 inch qpf in Philly and .80 in New York. .70 or so for Northern New Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 18z GFS coming around slowly. It still cuts off too much energy in the southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Euro ensemble mean has about 3.5 inches in New York City on Monday just like the prior run, and about 2.5 inches on Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 GFS actually looks worse. Less northern stream and tons of energy left behind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 The 18z NAM looks ridiculously good at the end of its run. Major phase over the four corners region. Look at the Dgex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 GFS actually looks worse. Less northern stream and tons of energy left behind GFS is 5th in terms of verification scores at 120 hrs, with only the NOGAPS being worse, and 18z is currently 3rd lowest verification score of the 4 runs. The Euro and Canadian are just WAAY ahead in verification scores at 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 JMA is currently 3rd in terms of accuracy at 5 days and 2nd in terms of accuracy at 8 days and it currently shows 3-5 inches on Monday and about a foot on Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Look at the Dgex. Yes, DGEX looks like the Canadian... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 why someone even gives the 18z and 6z any sliver of weight is beyond me. the models in general today took some baby steps and the GGEM taking a giant leap to a more snowier solution. lets see what the 0z suite holds for the weenies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 why someone even gives the 18z and 6z any sliver of weight is beyond me. the models in general today took some baby steps and the GGEM taking a giant leap to a more snowier solution. lets see what the 0z suite holds for the weenies Calling others weenies while completely discounting a solution because its the 18z is barely banter thread material. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Calling others weenies while completely discounting a solution because its the 18z is barely banter thread material. not discounting but its verification scores and accuracy at any given range shows that this model and 6z have much to improve on when compared to 0z/12z model suites of the GFS. may it have the right idea in the end? sure, but the odds of that IMO are pretty low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Gfs will play catch up if and only if the other models have the right idea about ejecting that energy east. If the other models are wrong, then no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 What am I missing with this possible event if anything. Euro not much, GFS nothing, GGEM has a storm. Discussing a threat is understood. Make me understand why there will be a big snow storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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