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3/17-3/18 Storm Threat Discussion


Zelocita Weather

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Right now I'd bet on some sort of Euro/GGEM blend.  If the GGEM starts a radical shift south like it showed for the March 3rd system, I'd worry about suppression.

I'd only worry about suppression if the storm was just as weak as the one we had over a week ago. It's a different setup though, the PNA is positive versus negative for that storm and odds are the low will strengthen instead of shear out like that storm but who knows at this point. Not getting too invested in this right now.

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Off course it's a coastal storm the way its modeled. This isn't a cutter.

We could just use a little more energy ejecting so it comes a little

further west over time.

Think almost anyone here who knows the EURO bias is to hold back too much energy in many cases and this may be another case here, or not. But a GGEM/EURO blend wouldnt be too bad of a combo

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Off course it's a coastal storm the way its modeled. This isn't a cutter.

We could just can use a little more energy ejecting so it comes 

further west over time.

It's an ULL elongated system that starts off over the deep south and then tracks eastward and northeastward. It's not a wrapped up nor'easter. It won't deepen rapidly as it hits the baraclonic zone offshore.

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It's an ULL elongated system that starts off over the deep south and then tracks eastward and northeastward. It's not a wrapped up nor'easter. It won't deepen rapidly as it hits the baraclonic zone offshore.

Overrunning with maybe a late developing coastal then. PDII showed you dont always need a powerful nor' easter to produce a big snows area wide

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Think almost anyone here who knows the EURO bias is to hold back too much energy in many cases and this may be another case here, or not. But a GGEM/EURO blend wouldnt be too bad of a combo

 

Lose that trailing energy over MISS and this is is closer to the BM. 

 

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Overrunning with maybe a late developing coastal then. PDII showed you dont always need a powerful nor' easter to produce a big snows area wide

When I think coastal storm I think of a storm that either redevelops offshore or a miller A that comes up the coast. This is just a broad, perhaps double barreled area of ULL energy. It's the perfect solution given the players on the field.

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You'd be phasing in the PV, northern stream and southern stream that would equal an absolute prolific snowstorm for the tristate area including coastal locals.

Wouldnt that be a triple phaser? Looked at both Euro and GG & nothing close to that there. A tthe very least we have a very interesting setp & the elongation of the PV gives me some hope that the supression solution is off the table to a large degree

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Wouldnt that be a triple phaser? Looked at both Euro and GG & nothing close to that there. A tthe very least we have a very interesting setp & the elongation of the PV gives me some hope that the supression solution is off the table to a large degree

Its probably the most extreme solution that could happen and at this point HIGHLY unlikely but scenario should still be noted

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Wouldnt that be a triple phaser? Looked at both Euro and GG & nothing close to that there. A tthe very least we have a very interesting setp & the elongation of the PV gives me some hope that the supression solution is off the table to a large degree

Well at least if the Feb 2003 analog doesn't work out, we always have March 1993 to fall back on!

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These are the kind of posts which get really annoying to sift through and delete all day. There is room for some joking and fun but at least try to keep the discussion constructive especially when it's been two pages of banter about forkys post.

Calm down . It's only one post that I just made about his post. . I understand what you mean though.

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These are the kind of posts which get really annoying to sift through and delete all day. There is room for some joking and fun but at least try to keep the discussion constructive especially when it's been two pages of banter about forkys post.

There is the remote and i mean very remote almost impossible chance it could happen. Even my inner weenie wont buy that solution due to the ramifications it would have for the upper tier of the NESIS scale. this system will need atleast a full phase and negative tilt at about the eastern MS/TN valley to be a beast and thats not counting a PV phase as well. It was just another albeit long shot solution earthlight, weenies just wet they're jimmies when they heard the possibility :lol:

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