REDMK6GLI Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Im just going to say this march is not your typical march. The pattern and cold is something we'd see in the deepest february, and id be looking at it as such. What has been a sign that its a typical march type pattern around here? We have a strong influential PV, -EPO and also a MJO phase favorable for cold and storms on the EC. This is in every sense of the term a "true winter pattern" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 No serious poster has ever gotten excited about a HECS 7+ days out. Not everyone, Snow88 rides the EURO HECS's like he stole it ( partly because he hacks into it as well ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 In the end you continue to hump climo and stay blinded to the mid winter type pattern we are in. All of southern nj had powdery snow on March 17 and had no trouble sticking. It's NYC coldest st patty's since 94! You think the sun will warm us up today? A mid-winter pattern doesn't jump from 60 to 20 and then back to 50-60 in the span of 96 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Exactly, nearly everyone here is in lock step agreement except for him. Actually I think everyone here is a bit bitter that our friends to the south are cashing in and we are high and dry. It's ok, their snow will be gone by tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 A mid-winter pattern doesn't jump from 60 to 20 and then back to 50-60 in the span of 96 hours. Keep humping the climo argument. Everyone on this board is telling you that you're wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Actually I think everyone here is a bit bitter that our friends to the south are cashing in and we are high and dry. It's ok, their snow will be gone by tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Keep humping the climo argument. Everyone on this board is telling you that you're wrong. You've yet to actually show me what my "climo" argument is. So, is our next storm looking like 93? That would certainly be something!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 NYC 24 currently -4.3 for the month Lowest was 13 on the 4th Spring! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Pazzo, you are creating some serious strawmen to attempt to save face. No one here (at least the serious posters, if you wanna tilt at the mikehobbyist windmills, you have other issues lol) was calling for a HECS, and when you used your #climo argument, numerous times you didnt couch it with "12 inches on the coastal plain", you said climo because it was march. By that definition, your argument failed. Just admit that, and you can continue to point out how the weenies were also wrong and save face. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 I just think the climo argument is way over used. This is not s climo march. This is an anomalous pattern, which in no way represents averages or climo. Pattern recognition is much more important than climo. If you have unseasonable cold, conditions aren't going to be "climo" Simply stating that it is mid march so the coastal plain would be to warm isn't correct. It would have been plenty cold right to the beaches. The time of year really doesn't mean much when you are seeing mid winter conditions. I feel the climo argument is lumped right in with sun angle and ground temps argument of things that are overused and matter very little Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Pazzo, you are creating some serious strawmen to attempt to save face. No one here (at least the serious posters, if you wanna tilt at the mikehobbyist windmills, you have other issues lol) was calling for a HECS, and when you used your #climo argument, numerous times you didnt couch it with "12 inches on the coastal plain", you said climo because it was march. By that definition, your argument failed. Just admit that, and you can continue to point out how the weenies were also wrong and save face. Exactly, his total argument was based on temps, not overall probability. The only one he's fooling here is himself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Snow is redeveloping now in southern PA and West of DC as the last piece of energy comes through. That will only add to already impressive Mid-March totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Snow is redeveloping now in southern PA and West of DC as the last piece of energy comes through. That will only add to already impressive Mid-March totals. IAD is now over 48" for the season I believe, and DCA is at 30". This winter is a great one in terms of spreading the goods and not being overly localized like last year, 10-11, or 03-04. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sickman Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 your stupid, AND you pay for your account, oh god your not going anywhere are you? But you are. See ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 IAD is now over 48" for the season I believe, and DCA is at 30". This winter is a great one in terms of spreading the goods and not being overly localized like last year, 10-11, or 03-04. Its weird that we all seemed to do well, but at different times. No big totals up and down the coast from the same storm. I wonder how many bigger winters had this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Its weird that we all seemed to do well, but at different times. No big totals up and down the coast from the same storm. I wonder how many bigger winters had this? 09-10 did to a lesser extent. Winter kinda shut off for dc after the 2/10 event while that and the 2-25/2-26 we saw a lot more up north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Pazzo, you are creating some serious strawmen to attempt to save face. No one here (at least the serious posters, if you wanna tilt at the mikehobbyist windmills, you have other issues lol) was calling for a HECS, and when you used your #climo argument, numerous times you didnt couch it with "12 inches on the coastal plain", you said climo because it was march. By that definition, your argument failed. Just admit that, and you can continue to point out how the weenies were also wrong and save face. How is my argument wrong? I claimed major March snowstorms in our area are rare and unlikely to occur. That's like claiming it's hot in the Sahara. Yes, we did get a nice mid-Atlantic snowstorm to our south which flew right in the face of climo. It was a major anomaly and probably a one in 30 year event for some areas. That does NOT change the fact that it is STILL an incredibly rare and incredibly unlikely event to occur. That's been my whole point when a good lot of people on here jumped on board 200+ hrs out. Earlier I pointed out this logical fallacy that is pretty common where people will treat one occurrence of an event as evidence of a higher probability of said event to occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Exactly, his total argument was based on temps, not overall probability. The only one he's fooling here is himself. NO, it was on probability. I even pointed to the % likelihood of snow being reported on any given day in March (I believe for NYC for today this is around 12%). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 How is my argument wrong? I claimed major March snowstorms in our area are rare and unlikely to occur. That's like claiming it's hot in the Sahara. Yes, we did get a nice mid-Atlantic snowstorm to our south which flew right in the face of climo. It was a major anomaly and probably a one in 30 year event for some areas. That does NOT change the fact that it is STILL an incredibly rare and incredibly unlikely event to occur. That's been my whole point when a good lot of people on here jumped on board 200+ hrs out. Earlier I pointed out this logical fallacy that is pretty common where people will treat one occurrence of an event as evidence of a higher probability of said event to occur. Using the time of year as the basis of your argument (not 12" storms on the coastal plain, like you claimed) failed. Thats the bottom line. Anomalous has nothing to do with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 To use your sahara argument, if rainfall was predicted in one region of the sahara, and you claimed it cant happen because its the sahara, yet it rained a couple hundred miles away, still in the desert...you'd claim victory, because it didnt rain in your section of the sahara. Thats what youre arguing right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Using the time of year as the basis of your argument (not 12" storms on the coastal plain, like you claimed) failed. Thats the bottom line. Anomalous has nothing to do with it. Where did I say, unequivocally, that it wouldn't snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Where did I say, unequivocally, that it wouldn't snow? Where did anyone, unequivocally, say it would? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 To use your sahara argument, if rainfall was predicted in one region of the sahara, and you claimed it cant happen because its the sahara, yet it rained a couple hundred miles away, still in the desert...you'd claim victory, because it didnt rain in your section of the sahara. Thats what youre arguing right now. No, I would say that the occurrence of rain in this one particular instance doesn't change the fact that rain is rare in the desert. And the next model prediction for rain days out, I would still say it's unlikely to come to fruition due to this fact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Yea, maybe by you up through the Poconos. NYC would not have seen a foot+. You realize the mid-atlantic in this storm from the Shenandoah Valley east STILL started as rain yesterday, right? If areas to the south got a foot why would nyc not have been able to see a foot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Where did anyone, unequivocally, say it would? Lol There were plenty of people saying it was a given due to the pattern. Well, newsflash, it's mid-March and conditions have to be nearly perfect for us to get accumulating snow. They were to our south, congrats to them. They'll be in the 60s in 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 How is my argument wrong? I claimed major March snowstorms in our area are rare and unlikely to occur. That's like claiming it's hot in the Sahara. Yes, we did get a nice mid-Atlantic snowstorm to our south which flew right in the face of climo. It was a major anomaly and probably a one in 30 year event for some areas. That does NOT change the fact that it is STILL an incredibly rare and incredibly unlikely event to occur. That's been my whole point when a good lot of people on here jumped on board 200+ hrs out. Earlier I pointed out this logical fallacy that is pretty common where people will treat one occurrence of an event as evidence of a higher probability of said event to occur. I think most people here were pretty subdued about this system. It was clear early on that a lot could go wrong and it could be another sheared out miss to the south. I thought 0z Saturday's runs would pretty much seal our fate one way or the other and that's what happened. When 12z Fri's models all went south I knew we were in big trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Let's clear a few things up on here: I was never suggesting there was no way it would not snow in March because of climo. That would be ridiculous, and if that's what you guys inferred from my comments, then I probably worded them poorly. If you look at a normally distributed population (bell curve), let's say in this case frequency of different types of conditions on your typical March day, accumulating snow fall is without question on one of the tails. NOW, if you account for the pattern (-EPO but no Atlantic blocking), you've probably moved closer to the thicker part of the bell curve but you are STILL on the tails. All that says is that such an event is still pretty uncommon. In terms of long range forecasting at this point, strict probability analysis given some basic set of forecasted conditions (overall teleconnections etc) is probably more accurate than jumping on board a group of models that all "show the storm". Now, of course, if we were all in the DMV (DC, MD, VA), that approach would have been wrong. I still think, most of the time, it will be accurate. If I forecast 80s and sun in July with an afternoon shower, I'll probably be pretty close. If I forecast 30s with snow in January, same deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 I would go with... March. NWS has really backed off the cold as we approach the possible storm early next week (likely bc of that storm). Sunday now showing snow and mid 30s as opposed to clear and low 20s. Looks like the only rough patch is going to be Friday with a low that morning in the teens and high in the 20s. I can take that. Nationals first spring training game against the Mets is Friday. SPRING IS COMING. I want to see the algo that puts the center of the cold over NYC proper. What? Uh, yes Spring is coming, regardless of the MJO (which might stay in 7). It stayed about 5F warmer than forecasted overnight, this is likely overdone as well. It was 20 overnight here, and was about 23 when I went running. Not that cold. The chances of the temps dipping below 10F, especially from next week on, are remote. Sorry, stats back me up here. As Don was pointing out in I believe this thread, some of the lows that models were showing were >4 sigma, which means the chances of them coming to fruition are essentially 0. >4 sigma temp departures occur maybe once every 75-100 years. Was the 55-60 for today seen by the models a week+ back? It's becoming spring, warmth will start to over-perform. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 There were plenty of people saying it was a given due to the pattern. Well, newsflash, it's mid-March and conditions have to be nearly perfect for us to get accumulating snow. They were to our south, congrats to them. They'll be in the 60s in 48 hours. Link us up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Wait, is Spring not coming? That will suck for baseball... The algo comment, that was referring to a map of 2m temps that had NYC not only the coldest area in the region but BELOW ZERO a couple weeks back. You don't think that's ridiculous? Those temps were >4 sigma, and of course, did not occur. What point were you making? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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