pazzo83 Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 So the 7"+ yesterday/today at DCA really supports your climo argument. It's an impressive snow, yes. I never claimed snow was impossible in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 It's an impressive snow, yes. I never claimed snow was impossible in March. You're still not getting it. That 7"+ at DCA only exemplifies how much of a failure your climo argument has been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 You're still not getting it. That 7"+ at DCA only exemplifies how much of a failure your climo argument has been. What has my climo argument been? There were people on here gearing up for 12"+ along the coastal plain in March. Sorry, THAT is what I was pointing out as ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 What has my climo argument been? There were people on here gearing up for 12"+ along the coastal plain in March. Sorry, THAT is what I was pointing out as ridiculous. Its not ridiculous when the shoreline of freakin cape may got 8" and their average march snowfall is like 2". March snowfalls don't work out often but this had nothing to do with the reasons you stated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 What has my climo argument been? There were people on here gearing up for 12"+ along the coastal plain in March. Sorry, THAT is what I was pointing out as ridiculous. But the entire basis for your argument is based on temperatures. It's plenty cold today for snow all the way to the coast, and if the system was stronger and 100 miles further north we would have seen some big totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Its not ridiculous when the shoreline of freakin cape may got 8" and their average march snowfall is like 2". March snowfalls don't work out often but this had nothing to do with the reasons you stated He's just being ridiculous, in order to support his theory he needed the snow to be confined to New England today and the higher elevations of the Apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Its not ridiculous when the shoreline of freakin cape may got 8" and their average march snowfall is like 2". March snowfalls don't work out often but this had nothing to do with the reasons you stated Yes, which is.. less than 12", I think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 But the entire basis for your argument is based on temperatures. It's plenty cold today for snow all the way to the coast, and if the system was stronger and 100 miles further north we would have seen some big totals. Yea, maybe by you up through the Poconos. NYC would not have seen a foot+. You realize the mid-atlantic in this storm from the Shenandoah Valley east STILL started as rain yesterday, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJWeather201 Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Yes, which is.. less than 12", I think? Wildwood Crest cashed in at 11.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJWeather201 Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Yea, maybe by you up through the Poconos. NYC would not have seen a foot+. You realize the mid-atlantic in this storm from the Shenandoah Valley east STILL started as rain yesterday, right? your stupid, AND you pay for your account, oh god your not going anywhere are you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Wildwood Crest cashed in at 11.5" The highest total I see in NJ is 7.5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Yea, maybe by you up through the Poconos. NYC would not have seen a foot+. You realize the mid-atlantic in this storm from the Shenandoah Valley east STILL started as rain yesterday, right? How many times has NYC seen a 12"+ storm on any given day of any given year since records have been kept? Just admit that you're wrong for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 I believe that a lot of these previous records were shattered today DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS FOR: MARCH 17ALLENTOWN 4.2 IN 1967ATLANTIC CITY 1.6 IN 1965PHILADELPHIA 3.5 IN 1892WILMINGTON 2.4 IN 1965 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 This all being said, I still don't think people get the argument I was putting forth, which was simply founding in statistics. The probability of significant mid March snowfalls along the Mid-Atlantic coastal plain is EXTREMELY low. The fact that this happened today to our south doesn't change that. Just like a landfalling hurricane perpendicular to the NJ shore is highly improbable. I really think some people on here need some basic statistics education. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 How many times has NYC seen a 12"+ storm on any given day of any given year since records have been kept? Just admit that you're wrong for once. Exactly, you just proved my point. It's pretty unlikely in January let alone March. Enjoy the snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Yea, maybe by you up through the Poconos. NYC would not have seen a foot+. You realize the mid-atlantic in this storm from the Shenandoah Valley east STILL started as rain yesterday, right? I'm not sure what exactly your argument is...that it can't snow more than 12" on the coast at this time of year? If so, that's incorrect. March 17th-20th 1956, 10-20" down to the coast March 17th-20th 1958 10-20" down to the coast March 28th-29th 1984, over a foot down to the coast March 31st-April 1st 1997, almost 10" in south Jersey April 10th 1996, almost 10" in south Jersey Just off the top of my head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 This all being said, I still don't think people get the argument I was putting forth, which was simply founding in statistics. The probability of significant mid March snowfalls along the Mid-Atlantic coastal plain is EXTREMELY low. The fact that this happened today to our south doesn't change that. Just like a landfalling hurricane perpendicular to the NJ shore is highly improbable. I really think some people on here need some basic statistics education. The fact that you're saying this was based off of statistics is absurd. You know damn well that your argument was that it would be too warm to see significant snow on the coast on March 17th. Claiming that the odds are equal to a Sandy track is pathetic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Exactly, you just proved my point. It's pretty unlikely in January let alone March. Enjoy the snow! So you have total disregard for the reason as to why it didn't snow here today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 I'm not sure what exactly your argument is...that it can't snow more than 12" on the coast at this time of year? If so, that's incorrect. March 17th-20th 1956, 10-20" down to the coast March 17th-20th 1958 10-20" down to the coast March 28th-29th 1984, over a foot down to the coast March 31st-April 1st 1997, almost 10" in south Jersey April 10th 1996, almost 10" in south Jersey Just off the top of my head. So 5 times in the past ~60 years and nothing in the past 18. So, everyday occurrence, right? If the models have it 120hrs out, we should take it to the bank! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 So you have total disregard for the reason as to why it didn't snow here today? Yes, it would have snowed here had the PV been weaker, But then the cold air source would have been slightly weaker, so you have to factor that in. It's threading the needle once you get to mid March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 So 5 times in the past ~60 years and nothing in the past 18. So, everyday occurrence, right? If the models have it 120hrs out, we should take it to the bank! Of course not, but if you have knowledge of meteorology and pattern recognition, you would have seen that this March was quite similar to some of the past impressive Marches. 1980, 1984, and 1956 all showed up on the analog lists of the H5 ensemble guidance numerous times over the past month. It was fairly apparent that an impressive March pattern was going to occur, and it did so far, for the Mid Atlantic. Similar in many ways to the mid/late 50s and early/mid 80s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Exactly, you just proved my point. It's pretty unlikely in January let alone March. Enjoy the snow! What exactly is your point? It's even less likely further south and guess what... It happened. So what if it wasn't 12 plus, as Yanks said that is unlikely any time of year. You are arguing that because this didn't slam nyc that it proves your low probability argument due to climo. Well climo argues it because of temps this time of year. It would have been plenty cold around here. And like I said climo argues against it more further south where it actually did occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 So 5 times in the past ~60 years and nothing in the past 18. So, everyday occurrence, right? If the models have it 120hrs out, we should take it to the bank! This has been the winter for abnormal events, so if it can snow heavily to the coast in any winter this late this would seem to be the year. It's very rare for example to lose two storms to suppression within 2 weeks in March. I had 7" of snow right to the beach on April 7, 2003, and the storm was mostly an afternoon event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 So 5 times in the past ~60 years and nothing in the past 18. So, everyday occurrence, right? If the models have it 120hrs out, we should take it to the bank! In the end you continue to hump climo and stay blinded to the mid winter type pattern we are in. All of southern nj had powdery snow on March 17 and had no trouble sticking. It's NYC coldest st patty's since 94! You think the sun will warm us up today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Yes, it would have snowed here had the PV been weaker, But then the cold air source would have been slightly weaker, so you have to factor that in. It's threading the needle once you get to mid March. Wrong again, the PV placement was nearly ideal. The problem with this storm was because the northern stream shortwave was too strong. It phased with energy over Mexico instead of ejecting eastward and phasing over the southern plains. If this had ejected eastward like it was originally modeled to do so, with this PV placement, we would have had epic over running snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 The argument was based on climo and how it would be to warm, which it is not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 What exactly is your point? It's even less likely further south and guess what... It happened. So what if it wasn't 12 plus, as Yanks said that is unlikely any time of year. You are arguing that because this didn't slam nyc that it proves your low probability argument due to climo. Well climo argues it because of temps this time of year. It would have been plenty cold around here. And like I said climo argues against it more further south where it actually did occur. If you look at my posts earlier in this thread (which apparently no one has done), I was particularly pointing out the absurdity of people jumping on the MECS/HECS wagon with a storm that was at the time about ~200hrs away. As March snowstorms of that magnitude ARE so rare, I didn't think that was a sound approach. Comparisons to March 93, well, suffice it to say, those were beyond reproach. However, that is fairly common around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 What exactly is your point? It's even less likely further south and guess what... It happened. So what if it wasn't 12 plus, as Yanks said that is unlikely any time of year. You are arguing that because this didn't slam nyc that it proves your low probability argument due to climo. Well climo argues it because of temps this time of year. It would have been plenty cold around here. And like I said climo argues against it more further south where it actually did occur. Exactly, nearly everyone here is in lock step agreement except for him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Apparently sw VA is the snowiest part of the east coast and NYC has a tropical environment now..#pazzoideas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 If you look at my posts earlier in this thread (which apparently no one has done), I was particularly pointing out the absurdity of people jumping on the MECS/HECS wagon with a storm that was at the time about ~200hrs away. As March snowstorms of that magnitude ARE so rare, I didn't think that was a sound approach. Comparisons to March 93, well, suffice it to say, those were beyond reproach. However, that is fairly common around here. No serious poster has ever gotten excited about a HECS 7+ days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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