Heisy Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 I'd rather not have that show up, it's going to end up pushing the first system out faster. Meh, if more energy comes out it won't really matter IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 The 12z Euro looks very good aloft to me by 120hr. We don't need all that southern stream energy for a decent storm. Strongly agree. The broad trough underneath the elongated PV is a classic look for our area. If we see this idea for a few more cycles I think it will be fair to start getting a little bit more excited about the prospects of a winter storm here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 The 12z Euro looks very good aloft to me by 120hr. We don't need all that southern stream energy for a decent storm. True. But a little more would help a lot, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Visions of last week are dancing in my head. They shouldn't be, it's 126 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Even though the Euro verbatim shows a few inches of snow into Upstate NY verbatim we'd probably see next to nothing. Plenty of dry air to the north of us and the steadier precipitation barely makes it in here. Steadier precip makes it to NYC and especially LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Steadier precip makes it to NYC and especially LI. Do I need to remind you about what happened last week when the models were showing the area on the northern edge? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Potent little shortwave coming in @ 156 with a transient 50/50...Could be a nice thump... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 True. But a little more would help a lot, though. I agree. But there's decent of amount PV energy coming down too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Check out day 6-7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Do I need to remind you about what happened last week when the models were showing the area on the northern edge? How about the storm this week which kept trending north and north, do you forget that? Each setup is different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Do I need to remind you about what happened last week when the models were showing the area on the northern edge? How do you know that we are going to be on the edge? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Day 7 looks tasty on the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 How about the storm this week which kept trending north and north, do you forget that? Each setup is different. You're missing the point. Anytime you have the PV to the north you're going to be fighting dry air to the north. In spite of the Euro showing light to moderate precip over the area it's probably mostly virga or stuff that will get eaten alive in reality. We need this to track north like the GGEM shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 EURO day 7 looks like a nice front end thump type snowstorm coming as cold air is temporarily locked in with the ULL in Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 How do you know that we are going to be on the edge? We're discussing the Euro verbatim. Obviously the GGEM was about as perfect as possible for our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 EURO day 7 looks like a nice front end thump type snowstorm coming as cold air is temporarily locked in with the ULL in Canada. Threads the needle for a since SWFE event. Stays just cold enough too as the low passes to our south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Strongly agree. The broad trough underneath the elongated PV is a classic look for our area. If we see this idea for a few more cycles I think it will be fair to start getting a little bit more excited about the prospects of a winter storm here. But if all the energy is injected out, wouldn't it produce a more intense southern vort which would have more access to moisture, thus creating a more potent storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 I'd rather not have that show up, it's going to end up pushing the first system out faster. STRONGLY AGREE. We've seen many potentially powerful storms gets deamplified on the EC due to a LP breaking down the PNA out west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 We're discussing the Euro verbatim. Obviously the GGEM was about as perfect as possible for our region. The Euro verbatim isnt the final solution- merely a trend , an indictor , a signpost along the road. In this case a positive step forward. we monitor for th enext 48 hours and if GGEM & ECM are continuing to improve UPTON will likely continue to look at a blend of both for a road map to this event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Day 7 is your typical February 6-12" storm. Fast hitter. 6-10 hours of moderate to heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 MJO 8-1:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 The Euro verbatim isnt the final solution- merely a trend , an indictor , a signpost along the road. In this case a positive step forward. we monitor for th enext 48 hours and if GGEM & ECM are continuing to improve UPTON will likely continue to look at a blend of both for a road map to this event Nobody said that what the Euro shows is what's going to happen. I don't understand the premise of your post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 I don't see what the problem is with the euro. It just came further north with a secs for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Nobody said that what the Euro shows is what's going to happen. I don't understand the premise of your post. Think he is stating a possible trend to a more amplified and juiced up solution toward the GGEM on the EURO OP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Right now I'd bet on some sort of Euro/GGEM blend. If the GGEM starts a radical shift south like it showed for the March 3rd system, I'd worry about suppression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 MJO 8-1:) MJO especially this year is sometimes overrated. Up until the past several weeks it really hasnt been too condusive with the phases it was in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 I don't see what the problem is with the euro. It just came further north with a secs for the area. It's not a problem, it was a good trend. Just pointing out that it was a brush at best. Don't be over zealous on QPF totals. PV to the north means dry air to the north. We need a track north of what the Euro shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Nobody said that what the Euro shows is what's going to happen. I don't understand the premise of your post. Do you have to be either uber agressive or defensive??! The premise of my post is obvious : what the Euro showed was a good step in the right direction. PERIOD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Come West? What are you talking about? This isn't a coastal storm. Off course it's a coastal storm the way its modeled. This isn't a cutter. We could just can use a little more energy ejecting so it comes further west over time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Right now I'd bet on some sort of Euro/GGEM blend. If the GGEM starts a radical shift south like it showed for the March 3rd system, I'd worry about suppression. With the March 3rd system the GGEM pulled one run like what it did today before it quickly dismissed. It was encouraging to see the Euro have the same general idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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