Edge Weather Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Care to explain a bit? 992 mb low 75 miles off Atlantic City at 234 hrs. QPF over 1 inch. A bit warm verbatim, but it has ensemble support from last night and the ensemble mean was also colder It will probably end up being suppressed though and being a threat for Virginia again though, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 992 mb low 75 miles off Atlantic City at 234 hrs. QPF over 1 inch. A bit warm verbatim, but it has ensemble support from last night and the ensemble mean was also colder Lol. Start a thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 992 mb low 75 miles off Atlantic City at 234 hrs. QPF over 1 inch. A bit warm verbatim, but it has ensemble support from last night and the ensemble mean was also colder Well it's interesting at least, cold overall run I assume? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYC Weather Lover Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 What do you think the chances of south shore of LI getting in on the winter weather advisory? Upton is hedging their bets with this northward shift and are still going with conservative amounts. The 18z model runs will be interesting nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 SREF trended a bit south and lower with the totals. I think the north trend is done. It now looks nearly identical to the Euro. Go with the Euro now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 What do you think the chances of south shore of LI getting in on the winter weather advisory? Upton is hedging their bets with this northward shift and are still going with conservative amounts. The 18z model runs will be interesting nonetheless. Highly doubtful. Most of Middlesex county gets less than 2 I think so advisory levels probably not reached (at least the northern part) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monmouthcounty11 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 SREF trended a bit south and lower with the totals. I think the north trend is done. It now looks nearly identical to the Euro. Go with the Euro now. SREFs were definitely too far north at 9z, the mean now looks reasonable and resembles much of the other guidance except for the NAM which is now south of pretty much everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 12z JMA is even further north than the UKMET, bringing the .10 line through southern New York State, and the .25 line along Rt. 78 into New York City, and along the North Shore of Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monmouthcounty11 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 NAM is a bit further north at 18z, which is not a surprise it was an outlier to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 18z NAM gets the .05 line north of NYC, the .10 line gets up to almost Staten Island and the south shore of Long Island, .25 line gets up to Monmouth County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 18z NAM gets the half inch line north of NYC, the one inch line gets up to Staten Island and the south shore of Long Island, .25 qpf line gets up to Trenton to Asbury Park Got excited for a second,, thought you meant QPF not accumulation! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 18z NAM gets the .05 line north of NYC, the .10 line gets up to almost Staten Island and the south shore of Long Island, .25 line gets up to Monmouth County Btw where were you during all our January/February storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Got excited for a second,, thought you meant QPF not accumulation! I thought the same lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bricktamland Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 I'm not sure what sites you guys are using, but the 18z NAM on IWM shows absolutely no precipitation north of Trenton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Btw where were you during all our January/February storms? Have my own blog. I was there. I was too busy. Eased up a bit now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurr_Tracker13 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 The NAM doesn't have precip that far north..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 I'm not sure what sites you guys are using, but the 18z NAM on IWM shows absolutely no precipitation north of Trenton It's a southern outlier though, all the other models are further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 I'm not sure what sites you guys are using, but the 18z NAM on IWM shows absolutely no precipitation north of Trenton StormVista. Yeah, I see on Weatherbell it is way south. Whatever, it is useless, the NAM is too far south anyway. We all know that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bricktamland Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 It's a southern outlier though, all the other models are further north. Yes, I agree, and it did come north a bit, which is hopefully an indication of the rest of the 18z suite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Looks like a repeat of 3/3 here which was .8" We have had a ton of 1" type events this winter here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Upton says only a 40% chance we even see anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Just to give you an idea on the EC the past several runs. Philadelphia two runs ago .8 Last run 1.8 This run 3.8 Belmar two runs ago .5 Last run 1.4 This run 3.0 New York City two runs ago .00 Last run .01 This run .08 Areas of Western Virginia went from 4 inches to 9 inches Are you mixing liquid equivalents and snowfall here or is NYC really still getting that little snow (or are Philly and Belmar in for feet of snow, lol)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Upton says only a 40% chance we even see anything That's up from 30% earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bricktamland Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Are you mixing liquid equivalents and snowfall here or is NYC really still getting that little snow (or are Philly and Belmar in for feet of snow, lol)? Has to be lol, I don't think snow can be measured in hundredths of an inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 One more bump north like that and NYC could get close to 2". WX/PT Fingers crossed. We would love that surprise and it would help with the record book. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Are you mixing liquid equivalents and snowfall here or is NYC really still getting that little snow (or are Philly and Belmar in for feet of snow, lol)? Those are snowfall amounts. I will fix New York. Yeah, for New York that should be .1 and .8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 18z RGEM has the half inch snow line just north of Rt. 80, the 1 inch snow line up to Rt. 78 and across to NYC and the south shore of Long Island, and the 2 inch line from Trenton across to Asbury Park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 What do you think the chances of south shore of LI getting in on the winter weather advisory? Upton is hedging their bets with this northward shift and are still going with conservative amounts. The 18z model runs will be interesting nonetheless. Probably a snowballs chance in March of that happening. Would be surprised if the island saw any precipitation at all. Uptown I think is erring on the side of caution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 It certainly looks and smells like snow right now on the south shore or li. I'm pretty confident off a repeat is 3/3 with just under an inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Gfs .02 for nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.