Edge Weather Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 UKMET is about 50 miles north of prior run. 1/2 inch snow line up to Sussex 1 inch snow line up to about Andover and Caldwell and into extreme SE NY 2 inch snow line up to about Rt. 78, Staten Island, and the south shore of Long Island 3 inch line about 10 miles north of Trenton to about Sandy Hook 4 inch line up to about Philly to Ocean County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 I'll settle for a dusting to an inch. No high expectations, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Hr 18 .01 brushing the south shore of ct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Euro just shifted NW about 25 miles 1/2 inch snow line up to about Rt. 78, Morristown, and NYC 1 inch line up to just south of Rt. 78 to just south of Staten Island and just south of the western coast of Long Island 2 inch line up to about Trenton to Asbury Park Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 .10 gets to NYC on euro and .25 brushing ttn-sandy hook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 UKMET is about 50 miles north of prior run. 1/2 inch snow line up to Sussex 1 inch snow line up to about Andover and Mahwah and into SE NY 2 inch snow line up to about Morristown and NYC 3 inch snow line up to about Rt. 78, Staten Island, and the south shore of Long Island 4 inch line about 10 miles north of Trenton to about Sandy Hook 6 inch line up to about Philly to Ocean County Philly went from about 1 inch to 6 inches on this run. to me it looks like the 5mm line gets no farther north than staten island... which equates .2 liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 12z Euro QPF, the model continues to shift north Sussex .01 Andover .02 Caldwell .05 Morristown .06 NYC .08 Somerset .09 Islip .09 Belmar .29 Philladelphia .37 Atlantic City .59 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Sussex .01 Andover .02 Caldwell .05 Morristown .06 NYC .08 Somerset .09 Islip .09 Belmar .28 From the Euro I assume? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 7.5 gets to Staten island, which equates to 3 inches that's a generous interpretation of the map. on the meteocentre map, staten island is just inside the northern extent of the 5mm-7.5mm shaded band. taken literally, it gives staten island 5mm and by the time you get down to monmouth county you hit the 7.5mm. ,,,that's simply reading the colored map literally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 From the Euro I assume? Yes. That's the 12z ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYC Weather Lover Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 IDK, but this northward shift could mean business, really for central and southern NJ. This could also put the southwestern shore of Long Island near 2 inches or so. It seems that lots of models are showing a 25 mile shift northward of the snow. You can correct me if I'm wrong, as I don't have access to any models. Right now accumulations might have to be raised slightly. Although it seems like this storm is done for our area, I'm still not throwing in the towel yet. This winter has been known to surprise us with either lots of snow when we weren't expecting it or nothing when we were expecting nearly 2 feet. Also it would make me happy if we did not talk about this Tuesday threat until like 3 days before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 12z Euro QPF, the model continues to shift north Sussex .01 Andover .02 Caldwell .05 Morristown .06 NYC .08 Somerset .09 Islip .09 Belmar .28 on the feb 13 event, the euro bumped up the .qpf significantly at literally the last minute (00z run, when snow started falling at around midnight). hopefully it will do that again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 From the Euro I assume? Yeah, and Philly is .37 and Atlantic City is .59 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 IDK, but this northward shift could mean business, really for central and southern NJ. This could also put the southwestern shore of Long Island near 2 inches or so. It seems that lots of models are showing a 25 mile shift northward of the snow. You can correct me if I'm wrong, as I don't have access to any models. Right now accumulations might have to be raised slightly. Although it seems like this storm is done for our area, I'm still not throwing in the towel yet. This winter has been known to surprise us with either lots of snow when we weren't expecting it or nothing when we were expecting nearly 2 feet. Also it would make me happy if we did not talk about this Tuesday threat until like 3 days before. Yes it could, because the PV is lifting out as the storm is moving in. The last two runs have now had significant north moves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Just to give you an idea on the EC the past several runs. Philadelphia two runs ago .8 Last run 1.8 This run 3.8 Belmar two runs ago .5 Last run 1.4 This run 3.0 New York City two runs ago .00 Last run .1 This run .8 Areas of Western Virginia went from 4 inches to 9 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Just to give you an idea on the EC the past several runs. Philadelphia two runs ago .8 Last run 1.8 This run 3.8 Belmar two runs ago .5 Last run 1.4 This run 3.0 New York City two runs ago .00 Last run .01 This run .08 Areas of Western Virginia went from 4 inches to 9 inches Ok so we might eek out an inch up here but clearly this last minute northern jog will be more beneficial to areas to significantly to the south of NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 WWA for Middlesex county south 2-4". Mt Holly's new map is pretty far north..drastically Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 WWA for Middlesex county south 2-4". Mt Holly's new map is pretty far north..drastically One more bump north like that and NYC could get close to 2". WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 I went to http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/StormTotalSnow/ freaked out, and realized it's from February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 WWA for Middlesex county south 2-4". Mt Holly's new map is pretty far north..drastically I was surprised to see this but the models have been bumping north so perhaps 2" is possible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rickwx1006 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 A Winter Storm Warning is now posted (as of 2:44 PM) for Ocean County, for potentially 4 - 6". Monmouth is under WWA for 2" - 4". I'm a mile from Ocean County, so I guess the Howell/Jackson/Lakewood area could receive around 4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJWeather201 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Wow, a nice storm for Wildwood , NJ (Jersey Shore) for this time of year. Congrats! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Yes it could, because the PV is lifting out as the storm is moving in. The last two runs have now had significant north moves. That's one of the biggest differences between 3/3 and this. For that one the PV was still pressing south, this one is lifting out so it's possible we see minor adjustments north even as the storm begins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 OT, but crazy pattern on the LR EURO today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 OT, but crazy pattern on the LR EURO today. Yeah, we have another one to watch for next Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 OT, but crazy pattern on the LR EURO today. Care to explain a bit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 That's one of the biggest differences between 3/3 and this. For that one the PV was still pressing south, this one is lifting out so it's possible we see minor adjustments north even as the storm begins. Let's see how much further it ticks north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeRain Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Upton says, further south than Mt. Holly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYY_2 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Upton says, further south than Mt. Holly. Mt holly updated their map more recently than upton I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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