SnowGoose69 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Imagine if we see another suppressed storm in April I cannot envision it 3 times, its pretty much 1 in 10 billion that it happened twice in a row and more or less for 2 completely different reasons both times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GiantBlizzard2003 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Nam finally loses the phantom 2nd storm. What a waste of a cold pattern. Terrible. It didn't lose the phantom storm it is just east like the rest of the models now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 I cannot envision it 3 times, its pretty much 1 in 10 billion that it happened twice in a row and more or less for 2 completely different reasons both times. Will have another chance to suppress next Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 The 6z GFS was also about 10-20 miles north with the qpf field from the 0z run with the .20 line up to Staten Island and the south shore of Long Island, from about Asbury Park on the prior run. You guys are looking at the phantom Tuesday night into Wednesday storm that is not going to happen and are not keeping an eye on the one right before our eyes for tonight. Sure it may just miss to the south, but if the models do this two more times we get some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 I cannot envision it 3 times, its pretty much 1 in 10 billion that it happened twice in a row and more or less for 2 completely different reasons both times. I mean seriously, will we ever get snow? lol Will have another chance to suppress next Tuesday. 0-5 this month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Will have another chance to suppress next Tuesday. Looks warm enough for mostly rain anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GiantBlizzard2003 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 I mean seriously, will we ever get snow? lol 0-5 this month It is a shame seeing all that gulf moisture to our south and the cold air to the north that will be coming in going to waste. This could've been a 10 -15" storm if things came together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 THE BEST FORCING CONTINUES TO DISPLAY OFFSHORE SO INCREASING CONFIDENCE WITH THE HEAVIER PCPN AXIS REMAINING WELL OUT OF THE AREA. THE COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL KEEP ANY PCPN IN THE FORM OF SNOW...WITH SNOW TOTALS LOOKING TO BE FROM A DUSTING TO NO MORE THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH RIGHT ALONG THE COAST. Good chance even this amount of precip could get eaten up by the dry air before it even touches the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 6z GFS brought 1 inch of snow to Somerville, Morristown, and NYC. We will have to see if there is another push north on the next run in a few minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Looks warm enough for mostly rain anyway. Next Tuesday, the 25th will be a snow threat, but you should most likely tell your friends down in Virginia the way these keep getting suppressed. It will be plenty cold for that one as the Polar Vortex will make another visit to Southeastern Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 THE BEST FORCING CONTINUES TO DISPLAY OFFSHORE SO INCREASING CONFIDENCE WITH THE HEAVIER PCPN AXIS REMAINING WELL OUT OF THE AREA. THE COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL KEEP ANY PCPN IN THE FORM OF SNOW...WITH SNOW TOTALS LOOKING TO BE FROM A DUSTING TO NO MORE THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH RIGHT ALONG THE COAST. Good chance even this amount of precip could get eaten up by the dry air before it even touches the ground. Expect a sudden push north now, LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 12z GFS the major differences are down in Central Jersey again. Pretty much held firm up here. .39 at Belmar/Farmingdale .11 at Islip .10 at Somerset .07 at NYC .06 at Morristown .04 at Caldwell .01 at Andover .00 at Sussex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monmouthcounty11 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 12z GFS the major differences are down in Central Jersey again. Pretty much held firm up here. .39 at Burlington-Monmouth .11 at Islip .10 at Somerset .07 at NYC .06 at Morristown You're not the only one who does it and I know I'm nitpicking but there is no such thing as Burlington-Monmouth, BLM is Belmar/Farmingdale formerly known as Allaire Aiport in Wall Township in Southeastern Monmouth County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 RGEM has about an inch of snow for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 RGEM has about an inch of snow for NYC It actually shifted south about 5-10 miles from the prior run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Talk about nit picking. It's an inch at best in the southern boroughs portions of the city. I'm south of the city and expect no more than an inch as well, 2" in best case (less confluence than modeled), but it could also be nothing as well so it's all down to nowcasting for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Talk about nit picking. It's an inch at best in the southern boroughs portions of the city. I'm south of the city and expect no more than an inch as well, 2" in best case (less confluence than modeled), but it could also be nothing as well so it's all down to nowcasting for me. Its more likely to be a repeat of 3/3, meaning a dusting in most places, 1" for your area. When you start getting into hundredths of an inch of liquid the models are pretty unreliable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RockawayRowdies Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 NWS saying nothing for Parsippany, nothing for Mahwah. I am predicting nothing. If I see any flurries, I'll be more than happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 NWS saying nothing for Parsippany, nothing for Mahwah. I am predicting nothing. If I see any flurries, I'll be more than happy. Euro showed basically that on its prior run. It did get .10 inches of snow up to about Rt. 80, but yeah, just flurries north of there, although it did push north about 25 miles from its prior run. Let's see what happens on the next run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 12z Canadian just shifted the entire qpf output about 30 mile northwest, moving the .10 line north of NYC and basically between Rt 78 and Rt. 80 from Central NJ on the prior run. It now has the .25 line up to Staten Island from Asbury Park on the prior run. It moved the .50 line up from Atlantic City to Ocean County. NW NJ is dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Another tight gradient storm. Looks like 1-3 inches possible for southern areas of the areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 I'll be happy to get an inch of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 GGEM has 1-3 inches for nyc with more as you head towards central jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 GGEM has 1-3 inches for nyc with more as you head towards central jersey. Not 3 inches anywhere in NYC, more like 1 inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 GGEM has half inch north of Rt. 80, 1 inch just north of Rt. 78 and about to Morristown, 2 inch line up to just south of Rt. 78 and up to about Staten Island and the western south shore of Long Island. It has the 3 inch line up to about Asbury Park from 2 inches on the prior run. This was about a 25 miles shift northwest of the entire band. It also brings some freezing rain concerns to NW NJ on Wednesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Not 3 inches anywhere in NYC, more like 1 inch Areawide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 GFS has a couple of inches for south central Jersey. Nice to see the models bump north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Areawide Brother, we love you, but please don't exaggerate snowfall amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Brother, we love you, but please don't exaggerate snowfall amounts Who's exaggerating? That's what the snowmaps show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Who's exaggerating? That's what the snowmaps show. It is 1-3 mm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.