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3/17-3/18 Storm Threat Discussion


Zelocita Weather

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The 6z GFS was also about 10-20 miles north with the qpf field from the 0z run with the .20 line up to Staten Island and the south shore of Long Island, from about Asbury Park on the prior run.  You guys are looking at the phantom Tuesday night into Wednesday storm that is not going to happen and are not keeping an eye on the one right before our eyes for tonight.  Sure it may just miss to the south, but if the models do this two more times we get some snow.

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I cannot envision it 3 times, its pretty much 1 in 10 billion that it happened twice in a row and more or less for 2 completely different reasons both times.

 

I mean seriously, will we ever get snow? lol

Will have another chance to suppress next Tuesday.

0-5 this month :cry:

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THE BEST FORCING CONTINUES TO DISPLAY OFFSHORE SO INCREASING

CONFIDENCE WITH THE HEAVIER PCPN AXIS REMAINING WELL OUT OF THE

AREA. THE COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL KEEP ANY PCPN IN THE FORM OF

SNOW...WITH SNOW TOTALS LOOKING TO BE FROM A DUSTING TO NO MORE

THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH RIGHT ALONG THE COAST.

Good chance even this amount of precip could get eaten up by the dry air before it even touches the ground.

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THE BEST FORCING CONTINUES TO DISPLAY OFFSHORE SO INCREASING

CONFIDENCE WITH THE HEAVIER PCPN AXIS REMAINING WELL OUT OF THE

AREA. THE COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL KEEP ANY PCPN IN THE FORM OF

SNOW...WITH SNOW TOTALS LOOKING TO BE FROM A DUSTING TO NO MORE

THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH RIGHT ALONG THE COAST.

Good chance even this amount of precip could get eaten up by the dry air before it even touches the ground.

 

Expect a sudden push north now, LOL.  

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12z GFS the major differences are down in Central Jersey again.  Pretty much held firm up here.

 

.39 at Burlington-Monmouth

.11 at Islip

.10 at Somerset

.07 at NYC

.06 at Morristown

 

You're not the only one who does it and I know I'm nitpicking but there is no such thing as Burlington-Monmouth, BLM is Belmar/Farmingdale formerly known as Allaire Aiport in Wall Township in Southeastern Monmouth County.

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Talk about nit picking. It's an inch at best in the southern boroughs portions of the city. I'm south of the city and expect no more than an inch as well, 2" in best case (less confluence than modeled), but it could also be nothing as well so it's all down to nowcasting for me.

Its more likely to be a repeat of 3/3, meaning a dusting in most places, 1" for your area. When you start getting into hundredths of an inch of liquid the models are pretty unreliable.

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NWS saying nothing for Parsippany, nothing for Mahwah.

I am predicting nothing.

If I see any flurries, I'll be more than happy.

 

Euro showed basically that on its prior run.  It did get .10 inches of snow up to about Rt. 80, but yeah, just flurries north of there, although it did push north about 25 miles from its prior run.  Let's see what happens on the next run.

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12z Canadian just shifted the entire qpf output about 30 mile northwest, moving the .10 line north of NYC and basically between Rt 78 and Rt. 80 from Central NJ on the prior run.  It now has the .25 line up to Staten Island from Asbury Park on the prior run.  It moved the .50 line up from Atlantic City to Ocean County. NW NJ is dry.

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GGEM has half inch north of Rt. 80, 1 inch just north of Rt. 78 and about to Morristown, 2 inch line up to just south of Rt. 78 and up to about Staten Island and the western south shore of Long Island.  It has the 3 inch line up to about Asbury Park from 2 inches on the prior run.  This was about a 25 miles shift northwest of the entire band.

 

It also brings some freezing rain concerns to NW NJ on Wednesday morning. 

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