psuhoffman Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 I agree, I think we have pretty much what we will walk away with this winter. Ever since Feb 15th we just can't buy any luck. I think if anyone around here sees a coating of snow on the ground tomorrow morning, call that a win. Unbelievable that on a day in the upper 50s in March, tomorrow we will watch a storm get suppressed well south of us. The storm isn't being suppressed, the pv is no more suppressive now and if anything is less so then runs 2 days ago that brought the storm north. The problem is most of the energy in the trough is diving south and cutting off not phasing in. This leads to a strung out system that is weak. Several waves of 1004 mb instead of one 990 low is the difference. If that energy came out we would be getting crushed. With the exception of feb 13 storms haven't phased much all winter. Mostly it's been waves along the cold boundary. Setup a that required phasing the last month haven't worked out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Honestly I've been thinking for days that if the left over energy could get enough seperation that it might have more room to amplify up the coast. Too bad it's once again the NAM only showing this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 ETA was better. Its hard to say if it was really better or if all other models were worse then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Its hard to say if it was really better or if all other models were worse then.would be neat if we could run today's models with the initialization data from past storms and see how they would have done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 would be neat if we could run today's models with the initialization data from past storms and see how they would have done. That would be cool and be the ultimate test. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 would be neat if we could run today's models with the initialization data from past storms and see how they would have done. A storm like this and 3/3 would have been miserably handled by the NGM it tended not to see the influence of confluence or strong highs very well and always overdid cold sector precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 GFS is just a smidge south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 GFS is just a smidge south. That great big 1" snow line is teasing the NYC area lol Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 GFS is just a smidge south. I like how your associates at the NWS-NYC looks at it. "AS YOU KNOW...WEATHER CHANGES...SO STAY TUNED". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Didn't one of the TV stations there buy into that? Several of the TV stations did and posted snowfall maps to social media. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 More suppressed snow chances on the gfs lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Control run is gorgeous. Been on a roll lately too. Some roll.....hasn't been right all winter. Not sure why people continue to spit out this garbage piece of info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdskidoo Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 I want some of what the NAM is (still) smoking... how can a government-backed model be so awful? I think you answered your own question with the bolded part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Some roll.....hasn't been right all winter. Not sure why people continue to spit out this garbage piece of info.excuse me? That was from 5 days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 dusting north shore and 1 inch south shore ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mweisenfeld Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 I think you answered your own question with the bolded part. As opposed to that bastion of free enterprise, the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 SREF just did about a 25 mile shift north with the precipitation shield for tonight and tomorrow. Doesn't make any difference in far northern sections yet, but it brings the .25 line up to Staten Island and the south shore of Long Island, and the .10 line north of the city. The .50 line is now up to Asbury Park and the .75 line is now up to Central Ocean County. Have to watch this. One or two more like this and we would all be in business. If it is correct of course. Let's see what the NAM does next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 6z Nam anf 9z SREF show the 2nd storm. Such a tease. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 ARW 9z brings a period of decent snow for the southern half of LI and NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 NAM is pivoting the entire band a bit to the northeast of the prior run by about 5 miles to the north in eastern sections on this run. Only makes a bit of a difference on this run to those in Central New Jersey and Philly. Just interesting to see what happens. We are only about 50 miles from getting some snow. Grasping at straws, but still interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monmouthcounty11 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 SREF mean is 2-3 inches for the NYC stations, 7 for KBLM, 9 for Philly and almost a foot for Atlantic City...I can't see how any of those have a chance of verifying. SREFs overdone and out to lunch as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 6z Nam anf 9z SREF show the 2nd storm. Such a tease. Only the NMB members that bring up the 2nd low. Do not trust them: http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SREF21PRSNE_9z/srefloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Only the NMB members that bring up the 2nd low. Do not trust them: http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SREF21PRSNE_9z/srefloop.html Looks like the Euro also went further north with the 2nd low but not as much as the Nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Looks like the Euro also went further north with the 2nd low but not as much as the Nam. The Euro seems like a good compromise. I would expect both the Nam and gfs to move towards it from opposite directions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 I just looked at the ECMWF snowfall map from the 0z run and the 12z run yesterday. There was a dramatic shift north on the run this morning for tonight into tomorrow. It took the 2 inch snow line from Northern Virginia up to extreme southern Pennsylvania. It took Trenton from .1 inches of snow to .8 inches and moved the .1 line up to Morristown and NYC. It took Burlington-Monmouth from .5 to 1.4 inches of snow. The shift north by the SREF was real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Looks like the Euro also went further north with the 2nd low but not as much as the Nam. The 0z Euro was a big miss. The 12z NAM looks like it will be further east with the 2nd low. The system in the Central Plains will likely keep this east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Nam finally loses the phantom 2nd storm. What a waste of a cold pattern. Terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongIslandWx Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Nam finally loses the phantom 2nd storm. What a waste of a cold pattern. Terrible. If that second storm had hit, it was likely to be rain anyways. The NAM has finally come back from whatever crazy place it goes to when it comes up with these solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Nam finally loses the phantom 2nd storm. What a waste of a cold pattern. Terrible. Yeah but this happens all the time and we've been in a very snowy pattern overall for several years now. Since the colder pattern will likely stick around, the threats will too which I hate. I don't want to see another suppressed storm, I'd rather it be too warm than see that again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Yeah but this happens all the time and we've been in a very snowy pattern overall for several years now. Since the colder pattern will likely stick around, the threats will too which I hate. I don't want to see another suppressed storm, I'd rather it be too warm than see that again. Imagine if we see another suppressed storm in April Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.