sferic Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 A solid 2-4" snowfall, even if just the 2".....would close out this great winter in such a nice way Sent from my iPhone Agreed, but another surprise in April would be the ultimate send off to winter 2013-14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 reminds of thewinter of 2010. Coming on the heels of a great Jan/Feb here I could care less. 3 winters with over 50" since 09-10 is as good as it gets around here. If we missed these March snows in a season with below normal snowfall it would be a big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS THE TRACK OFF THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST BY 12Z MONDAY AS THE ARCTIC HIGH GRADUALLY WEAKENS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. BASED ON ALL MODEL OUTPUT INCLUDING BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLES...THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW WAS DECREASED TO 50 PCT OR LESS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF UP TO 1 INCH OF SNOW OCCURRING ALONG THE COAST FROM 09Z-15Z MONDAY. AS YOU KNOW...WEATHER CHANGES...SO STAY TUNED. Uptown starting to cave it would appear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS THE TRACK OFF THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST BY 12Z MONDAY AS THE ARCTIC HIGH GRADUALLY WEAKENS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. BASED ON ALL MODEL OUTPUT INCLUDING BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLES...THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW WAS DECREASED TO 50 PCT OR LESS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF UP TO 1 INCH OF SNOW OCCURRING ALONG THE COAST FROM 09Z-15Z MONDAY. AS YOU KNOW...WEATHER CHANGES...SO STAY TUNED. Uptown starting to cave it would appear. Really that's how you see this, Upton caving? Or being responsible forecasters who are adjusting a forecast as the event gets near. They have an obligation to keep various options on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Really that's how you see this, Upton caving? Or being responsible forecasters who are adjusting a forecast as the event gets near. They have an obligation to keep various options on the table. In a way yes. Perhaps caving is a poor choice of words but less than 12 hours ago they were slightly more enthusiastic about this setup. Just posting it to show that at this point even Upton seems to be yielding to a little to no snow event. Unlike some here lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Sref show the same low coming up the coast like the nam showed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS THE TRACK OFF THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST BY 12Z MONDAY AS THE ARCTIC HIGH GRADUALLY WEAKENS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. BASED ON ALL MODEL OUTPUT INCLUDING BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLES...THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW WAS DECREASED TO 50 PCT OR LESS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF UP TO 1 INCH OF SNOW OCCURRING ALONG THE COAST FROM 09Z-15Z MONDAY. AS YOU KNOW...WEATHER CHANGES...SO STAY TUNED. Uptown starting to cave it would appear. How could they not? Two Euro runs in a row in the short term now have barely 3" of snow making it to DC. This is over for us-has been since last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 How could they not? Two Euro runs in a row in the short term now have barely 3" of snow making it to DC. This is over for us-has been since last night. What? Over? Did you say "over"? Nothing is over until we decide it is! Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell no! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 This is over for a big storm but not a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 What? Over? Did you say "over"? Nothing is over until we decide it is! Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell no! Love that movie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Sref further north about 50 to 75 miles vs previous run. 0.25" now up, kissing south shore of LI. 0.5" through central NJ. NYC metro, LI, south need to watch this closely. One more shift like that and things change quite dramatically with such a tight gradient. No one in these areas should write this off just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monmouthcounty11 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 21z SREFs upped KBLM from .12 to .38, not too bad. Southern Ocean County from .29 to .57, Atlantic City .49 to .79, PHL .20 to .47. Still very little for the NYC area .1-.2, but thats more than 15z which showed basically nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Nam looks a tad north fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 1001mb transfer from the OPC http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Atl_tab.shtml http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=19 https://www.aviationweather.gov/adds/satellite/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 NAM still dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peregrinator Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Nam looks a tad north fwiw The NAM actually trended about 50 miles south with the northern extent of the precip--mostly because it tightened up the QPF gradient a ton. Dover, DE gets 0.8" of QPF while Wilmington and PHL get next to nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 The NAM actually trended about 50 miles south with the northern extent of the precip--mostly because it tightened up the QPF gradient a ton. Dover, DE gets 0.8" of QPF while Wilmington and PHL get next to nothing. Actually its just as tight as its been. Its only shifted south. The max precip band across Maryland/northern Virginia is actually a bit drier than the last two runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 What? Over? Did you say "over"? Nothing is over until we decide it is! Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell no!WORMER!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 The NAM actually trended about 50 miles south with the northern extent of the precip--mostly because it tightened up the QPF gradient a ton. Dover, DE gets 0.8" of QPF while Wilmington and PHL get next to nothing.The Euro so far south for 2 runs pretty much doomed this north of BWI. It's over north of there and even for BWI it's maybe a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Nam is still showing the second low coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 To show you guys how bad the NAM is everywhere even in the 24-36 hr timeframe, the 00z 3/11 NAM had 14-17" in the Chicago area and 6-10" out toward northwest IL. The result from the 3/11-3/12 snow event here was 3.6" at O'Hare, 0.1" in Rockford (nw IL), 5.4" here at the NWS office and 6" at Chicago Midway Airport. The highest amount in the Chicago area was 7". All the models have had their struggles across the country this year, and the NAM has had some rare successes but typically it's been the worst guidance and almost unusable at times except in the near term for mesoscale trends. Didn't one of the TV stations there buy into that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Nam is still showing the second low coming up. Nothing holding the cold air in by then, though, so its a sleety mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 I want some of what the NAM is (still) smoking... how can a government-backed model be so awful? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Nothing holding the cold air in by then, though, so its a sleety mess. Sleetstorm. Big one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Sleetstorm. Big one. ST.P Day 2007 was a fun sleet storm. Nam is still drunk from Feb 2013. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Sleetstorm. Big one. I beg of you . I will call Lefrak and have you re- psyched if you buy the 84 hour NAM . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Does it even make sense what the nam is doing at the end of the run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Does it even make sense what the nam is doing at the end of the run? Does it ever? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 ETA was better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Nope lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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