Bluescat1 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Anyone seen the Korean model.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monmouthcounty11 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 18z NAM gets the precip a bit further north than 12z. NAM actually took a pretty sizeable jump North, it's still virtually nothing for NYC but leaves some hope for us down in CNJ and Southern NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Might have to break out the Aussie. It's desperation time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 I agree, I think we have pretty much what we will walk away with this winter. Ever since Feb 15th we just can't buy any luck. I think if anyone around here sees a coating of snow on the ground tomorrow morning, call that a win. Unbelievable that on a day in the upper 50s in March, tomorrow we will watch a storm get suppressed well south of us. Can almost guarantee no coating of snow tomorrow morning. For Monday, I'm still holding out hope for an inch of snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Might have to break out the Aussie. It's desperation time. LOL its pretty far north it appears... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 15, 2014 Author Share Posted March 15, 2014 Man that nam run was rough...much further north overall with dc over 1", .5" up to snj .25" TTN to asbury, .1" to middlesex, and a flurry to rt.78.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 18z NAM gets the precip a bit further north than 12z. NAM actually took a pretty sizeable jump North, it's still virtually nothing for NYC but leaves some hope for us down in CNJ and Southern NJ. It did make a nice jump north putting central and southern nj on edge for sure, southern nj would actually have a really nice hit. The PV and confluence begin to lift out as the storm approaches so the slower the storm is or the faster the PV begin to lift out, the further north it'll be. If the gfs shows something similar then it bares watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beez Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 18z NAM gets the precip a bit further north than 12z. NAM actually took a pretty sizeable jump North, it's still virtually nothing for NYC but leaves some hope for us down in CNJ and Southern NJ. .25 line gets into southern Monmouth now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 LOL its pretty far north it appears... Huh? Where's America? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 LOL @ the NAM at 72-84 hours, shows you how bad the NAM is in that range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 The 72-84 hr NAM is on acid, what a wacky run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 The 72-84 hr NAM is on acid, what a wacky run. Now that's typical NAM and why it's pure nonsense beyond 48 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 It's just a possible solution, and 4 days out. The trend has been to leave more and more energy in the southwest... well, it's got to go somewhere eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peregrinator Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 What's the deal with the disconnect between the 4k NAM's sim radar and its QPF output? Here's what the sim radar shows at hour 45: And here's the QPF output for hours 42-48--hard to believe that 20-25dbz is all virga north of Sandy Hook: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 To show you guys how bad the NAM is everywhere even in the 24-36 hr timeframe, the 00z 3/11 NAM had 14-17" in the Chicago area and 6-10" out toward northwest IL. The result from the 3/11-3/12 snow event here was 3.6" at O'Hare, 0.1" in Rockford (nw IL), 5.4" here at the NWS office and 6" at Chicago Midway Airport. The highest amount in the Chicago area was 7". All the models have had their struggles across the country this year, and the NAM has had some rare successes but typically it's been the worst guidance and almost unusable at times except in the near term for mesoscale trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 To show you guys how bad the NAM is everywhere even in the 24-36 hr timeframe, the 00z 3/11 NAM had 14-17" in the Chicago area and 6-10" out toward northwest IL. The result from the 3/11-3/12 snow event here was 3.6" at O'Hare, 0.1" in Rockford (nw IL), 5.4" here at the NWS office and 6" at Chicago Midway Airport. The highest amount in the Chicago area was 7". All the models have had their struggles across the country this year, and the NAM has had some rare successes but typically it's been the worst guidance and almost unusable at times except in the near term for mesoscale trends. Which, it so happens, is what it is designed for. Heck, the M in NAM stands for mesoscale... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Fwiw, 18z gfs tickled north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peregrinator Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 The GFS continues to inch north--a number of models now seem to have the 0.25" line touching southern Long Island. While 6"+ amounts are certainly out of the question at this point, I don't think it's unreasonable to expect 1-2" in the city with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 The GFS continues to inch north--a number of models now seem to have the 0.25" line touching southern Long Island. While 6"+ amounts are certainly out of the question at this point, I don't think it's unreasonable to expect 1-2" in the city with this storm. I don't think it's unreasonable but more likely just south of the city. The 18z gfs looked similar to 12z QPF wise but it did have the confluence further to the north. If that continues than you would likely see the precip move further north. Also the energy hanging back over the SE should be monitored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Looks like an inch for nyc on the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Looks like an inch for nyc on the gfs. Pathetic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Pathetic? Not at all. I love any amount of snow that I receive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Not at all. I love any amount of snow that I receive. No it was sarcasm based on the previous post that called you pathetic for thinking you could get an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 What's the deal with the disconnect between the 4k NAM's sim radar and its QPF output? Here's what the sim radar shows at hour 45: And here's the QPF output for hours 42-48--hard to believe that 20-25dbz is all virga north of Sandy Hook: VERY good observation. I've noticed that the 4k NAM tends to overdo the precip shield OUTSIDE of the main, heavier banding. As to why it's qpf totals don't match up with its sim radar.....no idea. Must have something to do with the formula it uses Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 PSU is dry here on the 4km. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 What's the deal with the disconnect between the 4k NAM's sim radar and its QPF output? Here's what the sim radar shows at hour 45: And here's the QPF output for hours 42-48--hard to believe that 20-25dbz is all virga north of Sandy Hook: Sim radar picks up virga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 PSU is dry here on the 4km. rad45.gif PSU is dry here on the 4km. rad45.gif reminds of thewinter of 2010. Coming on the heels of a great Jan/Feb here I could care less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Sim radar picks up virga. Is it because that is composite reflectivity? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Watch, just when our guard is down, not expecting much if anything, we'll get 2-4 inches just like that. Don't expect it and it will come, well ,maybe. I'm satisfied with this winter regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Watch, just when our guard is down, not expecting much if anything, we'll get 2-4 inches just like that. Don't expect it and it will come, well ,maybe. I'm satisfied with this winter regardless. A solid 2-4" snowfall, even if just the 2".....would close out this great winter in such a nice way Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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